CHOW TAI FOOK(1929.HK):1H EARNINGS MISSED 2H STILL UNDER PRESSURE
CHOW TAI FOOK(1929.HK):1H EARNINGS MISSED 2H STILL UNDER PRESSURE
The company remains committed to shareholder returns, declaring a dividend of HK$ 0.2 per share in 1HFY25 (vs. HK$0.25 per share in 1HFY24), given the significant decline in NP. The payout ratio increased from 55% in 1HFY24 to 79% in 1HFY25. Additionally, CTF announced a share buyback plan of up to HK$ 2bn, and funding will come from 1) higher 2HFY25 operating cash flow, and 2) cash released from inventory reductions.Chow Tai Fook (CTF) reported 1HFY25 (6 months ended Sep 2024) results with revenue down 20.4% YoY, in line with Bloomberg consensus estimates. NP dropped 44.4% YoY, 20% below consensus mainly due to weak consumer sentiment and fair value loss of gold loan due to gold price hikes. CTF announced a share buyback plan of HK$ 2bn on top of HK$ 0.2 per share dividend. Considering possible continued weakening of consumer sentiment and gold price fluctuation, we cut NP forecasts by 20-30%, projecting NP growth of -23.3%/28.1%/6.8% in FY25/26/27E. Accordingly, we cut our TP by 31% to HK$10.0, representing 20x FY25E P/E.
周大福（CTF）發佈了2025財年上半年的業績（截至2024年9月的6個月），營業收入同比下降20.4%，與彭博社共識預期一致。淨利潤同比下降44.4%，低於共識的20%，主要是由於消費者信心疲弱和由於黃金價格上漲導致的黃金貸款公允價值損失。CTF宣佈了一項20億港元的股票回購計劃，並將派發每股0.2港元的股息。考慮到消費者信心可能持續走弱及黃金價格波動，我們下調了淨利潤預測20-30%，預計2025/26/27財年的淨利潤增長爲-23.3%/28.1%/6.8%。因此，我們將目標價下調31%至10.0港元，代表2025財年預期市盈率20倍。
1HFY25 revenue in line, NP missed. The company reported 1HFY25 (6 months ended Sep 2024) results. Revenue dropped 20.4% YoY to HK$ 39.4bn, in line with consensus, due to weak consumer sentiment and intensified wait-and-see stance due to gold price hikes. Net profit plunged 44.4% YoY to HK$ 2.5bn, 20% below consensus. This was stemmed from combined impacts of GP margin boost and gold loan value loss: 1) GP margin rose 6 ppts to 31.6%, aided by higher gold prices and fixed-price product contribution to sales doubling to 14.2%. 2) Gold loan fair value loss was at HK$ 3.1bn (approx. 20%+ price rise for nearly 30,000kg gold loans, CMBI est.).
2025財年上半年的營業收入符合預期，淨利潤未達標。公司發佈了2025財年上半年的業績（截至2024年9月的6個月）。營業收入同比下降20.4%，達到394億港元，與共識一致，原因是消費者信心疲弱以及由於黃金價格上漲導致的觀望情緒加劇。淨利潤同比暴跌44.4%，降至25億港元，低於共識的20%。這主要是由於毛利率提升與黃金貸款價值損失的綜合影響：1）毛利率上升6個百分點至31.6%，主要受益於較高的黃金價格以及固定價格產品對銷售的貢獻翻倍至14.2%。2）黃金貸款的公允價值損失達31億港元（約爲需近30,000公斤黃金貸款的20%以上價格上漲，CMBI估計）。
Cut full-year estimates. The company provided comprehensive guidance projecting a mid-teen revenue slump for FY25E, with OP margin up 1.5-3 ppts as GP margin improvement will be partly offset by SG&A ratio hike (operating deleverage). We cut revenue forecasts by 15 - 20%, expecting it to change by -16.2%/ -2.4%/ +3.2% YoY in FY25/26/27E respectively. Given the uncertainty in the international environment currently which may lead to continued fluctuations in gold prices, we expect fair value loss of gold loan to persist in 2H. Thus, we cut our net profit projections by 20-30%, estimating the bottom line to change by -23.2%/ +28.1%/ +6.8% YoY, amounting to HK$ 5.0/4.4/6.8 bn in FY25/26/27E respectively.
下調全年預測。公司提供了全面指導，預計2025財年的營業收入將中等下降，運營利潤率將上升1.5-3個百分點，因爲毛利率改善將部分被銷售及管理費用比例上升（運營去槓桿化）所抵消。我們下調了營業收入預測15-20%，預計2025/26/27財年的同比變動爲-16.2%/-2.4%/+3.2%。鑑於當前國際環境的不確定性可能導致黃金價格的持續波動，我們預計黃金貸款的公允價值損失將在下半年繼續。因此，我們將淨利潤預測下調20-30%，估計底線的同比變動爲-23.2%/+28.1%/+6.8%，分別爲2025/26/27財年的50億/44億/68億港元。
The company remains committed to shareholder returns, declaring a dividend of HK$ 0.2 per share in 1HFY25 (vs. HK$0.25 per share in 1HFY24), given the significant decline in NP. The payout ratio increased from 55% in 1HFY24 to 79% in 1HFY25. Additionally, CTF announced a share buyback plan of up to HK$ 2bn, and funding will come from 1) higher 2HFY25 operating cash flow, and 2) cash released from inventory reductions.
公司致力於股東回報，宣佈在2025財年上半年派發每股0.2港元的股息（相比於2024財年上半年的每股0.25港元），鑑於淨利潤顯著下降。派息比例從2024財年上半年的55%上升至2025財年上半年的79%。此外，CTF還宣佈了一項最多20億港元的股票回購計劃，資金將來自於：1）2025財年下半年的經營現金流增加，以及2）從存貨減少中釋放出的現金。
Maintain BUY with TP cut by 31% to HK$ 10.0 given lower NP forecasts. Our new TP represents 20x FY25E P/E, in line with the long-term average of comparable peers. Key risks: weak consumption, gold price volatility, and worse-than-expected new product sales.
維持買入評級，目標價下調31%至10.0港元，原因是淨利潤預測下調。我們的新目標價對應25財年的20倍市盈率，與同行的長期平均水平一致。主要風險包括：消費疲軟、黃金價格波動以及新產品銷售不及預期。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。