The Perfect Trade For This AI "Short Squeeze"
The Perfect Trade For This AI "Short Squeeze"
Soundhound AI (SOUN) has been soaring lately with news of voice AI integration, but a recent Benzinga article on highlights the steep rise in short interest – a whopping 24% of all regular shares are shorted and this would take more than three days of normal trading volume to cover.
Soundhound 人工智能 (SOUN) 最近因語音人工智能整合的消息而飆升，但最近Benzinga的一篇文章強調了空頭持倉的急劇上升——所有普通股份的24%都被做空，這需要超過三天的正常成交量來覆蓋。
This means that SOUN is a target for a short squeeze. Why? Because short sellers will have to buy the stock to cover their positions, and this will push prices even higher. So, how might we position for upside here with the limited risk?
這意味着 SOUN 是一個空頭回補的目標。爲什麼？因爲空頭賣家將不得不買入股票來覆蓋他們的頭寸，這將進一步推動價格上漲。那麼，我們如何在有限的風險下爲上漲做好準備呢？
Why, the butterfly trade, of course!
當然是蝴蝶交易！
Trade structure – the long call butterfly trade
交易結構 – 看漲蝴蝶交易
The long call butterfly is a combination of a long call spread, and a short call spread where the short strikes are shared. Here's the trade:
看漲蝴蝶交易是看漲價差和看跌價差的組合，其中短期行使價格是共享的。這裏是交易：
- Buy to open 1 SOUN 17 Jan 8 calls
- Sell to open 2 SOUN 17 Jan 12 calls
- Buy to open 1 SOUN 17 Jan 15 calls
- 買入 1 單位 SOUN 1月17日8號看漲期權
- 賣出 2 單位 SOUN 1月17日12號看漲期權
- 買入 1 單位 SOUN 1月17日15號看漲期權
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The total cost of this spread is currently 0.46 at this writing and it is also the maximum risk in the position. There is one caveat here – the distance between the strikes will make this a winning trade even if the stock moves well above $15. Here's why:
目前這個價差的總成本爲0.46，這也是該頭寸的最大風險。這裏有一個警告——行權價之間的距離將使這筆交易即使在股票價格超過15美元時依然獲利。原因如下：
In a standard long butterfly spread, the distance between the middles strikes and the outer strikes are the same. This means that if the stock moves dramatically higher when holding the long call butterfly, the entire position would be a loss if held into the expiration date.
在標準的開多蝶式價差中，中間行權價和外部行權價之間的距離是相同的。這意味着如果在持有看漲蝶式期權時，股票大幅上漲，則如果持有到到期日，整個頭寸將會虧損。
This butterfly, however is different.
然而，這個蝶式期權是不同的。
The spread between the 8 and 12 strikes is $4, while the spread between the 12 and 15 strikes is $3 – leaving an extra $1 to collect even if prices expand north.
8和12的行權價之間的價差爲4美元，而12和15的行權價之間的價差爲3美元——即使價格上漲，仍然可以收集額外的1美元。
The total potential profit if the price of the stock does not breach $12 would be calculated this way: $12-8 = $4 (distance between the strikes) minus how much we paid for it 0.46 = $3.54 less commissions.
如果股票價格不超過12美元，總潛在利潤將按以下方式計算：12-8=4（行權價之間的距離）減去我們爲此支付的0.46=3.54，減去佣金。
Potentially 600%!
潛在收益高達600%！
That said, if the prices stay steady, this option position will gradually erode to zero, so manage your risk according to that understanding.
也就是說，如果價格保持穩定，這個期權頭寸將逐漸耗損至零，因此請根據這個理解管理你的風險。
Trade Management
交易管理
SOUN's relative resistance zone is right around $7.80 (where it sits now) The relative support is near $4.20.
SOUN的相對支撐位大約在$7.80（目前的價格）。相對支持位接近$4.20。
The strategy result provides only two choices to exit the trade:
該策略結果只提供兩種選擇以退出交易：
- To sell the call butterfly when it is performing at your target parameters. I like the 200%-300% profit range.
- To sell the call butterfly when it hits the short strike or hits the loss threshold that is desirable for you. Again, I like the 50% stop here.
- 當其表現符合您的目標參數時，賣出看漲蝴蝶。我喜歡200%-300%的收益區間。
- 當其達到空頭行權價或達到您希望的止損閾值時，賣出看漲蝴蝶。我在這裏喜歡50%的止損。
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譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
