Dollar, Treasury Yields, Stocks Fall In Tandem After October Inflation Uptick
Dollar, Treasury Yields, Stocks Fall In Tandem After October Inflation Uptick
The headline PCE price index rose by 2.3% year-over-year in October, up from 2.1% in September, in line with forecasts. Core PCE inflation, which strips out volatile energy and food prices, also ticked higher, climbing from 2.7% to 2.8% annually, meeting economist predictions.A widely expected increase in the October Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index — commonly regarded as the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge — triggered fresh losses for the U.S. dollar, while Treasury yields and U.S. stocks also slid in tandem.
隨着十月個人消費支出（PCE）價格指數的預期增長 — 通常被視爲聯儲局首選的通貨膨脹衡量標準 — 美元應聲下跌，同時美國國債收益率和美國股市也一同下滑。
By 11:10 a.m. ET in New York, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:UUP), was down 0.8%, reflecting broad weakness in the greenback. Meanwhile, 10-year Treasury yields fell by five basis points to 4.26%, and the S&P 500, replicated by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), dropped 0.4%.
紐約時間上午11點10分，由景順Db美元指數看漲基金etf（紐交所：UUP）跟蹤的美元指數（DXY）下跌0.8%，反映了綠光的廣泛疲軟。與此同時，10年期美國國債收益率下降了五個點子至4.26%，標普500指數，由標普500 etf信託基金（紐交所：SPY）複製，下降了0.4%。
Tech stocks were hit harder, with the Nasdaq 100 — tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:QQQ) — plunging 1.3%.
科技股遭受更嚴重打擊，納斯達克100指數 — 由景順QQQ信託一期（納斯達克：QQQ）跟蹤 — 暴跌了1.3%。
October PCE Inflation Matches Expectations
十月PCE通貨膨脹符合預期
The headline PCE price index rose by 2.3% year-over-year in October, up from 2.1% in September, in line with forecasts. Core PCE inflation, which strips out volatile energy and food prices, also ticked higher, climbing from 2.7% to 2.8% annually, meeting economist predictions.
十月份核心PCE價格指數同比上漲2.3%，較九月份的2.1%回升，符合預測。剔除波動能源和食品價格的核心PCE通貨膨脹率也略有上升，從2.7%上升至每年2.8%，符合經濟學家的預測。
In a positive twist, personal spending and income data slightly beat expectations. Meanwhile, the second estimate for third-quarter U.S. GDP growth remained unchanged at a solid 2.8% annualized rate.
在一個積極的變化中，個人支出和收入數據略高於預期。與此同時，第三季度美國國內生產總值增長的第二次估計維持在堅挺的2.8%的年率不變。
Joseph Brusuelas, economist at RSM US, highlighted the strength of household finances ahead of the critical holiday shopping season. "Strong personal spending and a 0.6% increase in personal income underscores just how robust the economy and households remain as we approach Black Friday and year-end 2024," Brusuelas said.
RSM美國經濟學家Joseph Brusuelas強調了在關鍵的假日購物季節來臨之前家庭財務狀況的強勁。Brusuelas表示："強勁的個人支出和個人收入增長0.6%強調了經濟和家庭在我們逼近2024年黑色星期五和年底時保持多麼強勁。"
Despite inflationary signals, Brusuelas maintains that the Federal Reserve is likely to lower interest rates by 25 basis points during its Dec. 18 meeting. Market-implied probabilities echoed this sentiment, with a 70% chance of a rate cut priced into futures markets.
儘管通脹信號不斷，Brusuelas認爲聯儲局可能在12月18日的會議上減息25個點子。市場暗示的概率反映了這一觀點，期貨市場中對減息的70%概率已經定價。
Yen Surges On Bank of Japan Rate-Hike Bets
日幣在日本銀行加息預期下飆升
Yet, while U.S. economic data took center stage, Wednesday's market action appeared more influenced by carry-trade unwinding and growing speculation around a potential Bank of Japan (BOJ) interest rate hike in December.
然而，儘管美國經濟數據佔據主導地位，週三的市場行動似乎更多地受到套戥交易的反向進行和圍繞日本銀行（BOJ）12月可能加息的猜測的影響。
The Japanese yen jumped 1.2% against the dollar, extending its winning streak to three consecutive sessions.
日元對美元上漲1.2%，連續第三個交易日擴大了其漲勢。
Such a strong daily move by the yen certainly strides with statistics revealing an October U.S. inflation uptick.
日元的強勁日內波動與統計數據相符，顯示出美國10月通脹有所上升。
"Investors are betting on an interest-rate hike from the Bank of Japan next month," noted BBVA forex strategist Alejandro Cuadrado in a client note on Tuesday.
「投資者正在押注日本銀行下個月將加息，」週二BBVA外匯策略師亞歷漢德羅·誇德拉多在一份客戶備忘錄中指出。
The interest rate futures curve now implies a 65% probability of a BOJ rate hike in December, compared to just 30% at the start of November.
利率期貨曲線現在暗示日本銀行12月加息的概率爲65%，而11月初僅爲30%。
The yen's Wednesday outperformance has revived memories of the carry-trade turmoil from early August, when a sudden shift in yen-dollar dynamics sent shockwaves across global markets.
日元週三的表現突出喚起了人們對今年8月初套戥交易動盪的回憶，當時日元兌美元的突然變化在全球市場引發了震盪。
Since that episode, the yen had depreciated by over 5% against the dollar, weighed down further by the victory of Donald Trump in the 2024 U.S. presidential elections.
自那次事件以來，日元兌美元匯率已經貶值超過5%，並且受到特朗普概念在2024年美國總統大選中獲勝的進一步拖累。
Read Now:
立即閱讀：
- Amazon Dominates Holiday Shopping As Black Friday Spending Soars: Goldman Sachs
- 亞馬遜在黑色星期五的消費激增中主導假日購物：高盛
Photo: Pixabay
照片：Pixabay
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
