We Think Hanesbrands (NYSE:HBI) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt
We Think Hanesbrands (NYSE:HBI) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that Hanesbrands Inc. (NYSE:HBI) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
伯克希爾哈撒韋的查理·芒格支持的外部基金經理李錄毫不隱諱地說:「最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是您是否會遭受永久性的資本損失。」因此,聰明人似乎知道,債務(通常與破產有關)是評估公司風險性時很重要的因素。我們注意到哈尼斯品牌服裝公司(紐約證券交易所:HBI)的資產負債表上確實有債務。但股東們是否應該擔心其債務使用?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
債務何時有危險?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
債務是幫助企業增長的工具,但如果企業無法償還其貸款人,那麼它就處在貸款人的控制之下。 如果情況變得非常糟糕,貸款人可以控制企業。 然而,更常見的(但仍然痛苦的)情況是必須以低價籌集新股本,從而永久地稀釋股東權益。當然,債務可以是企業中的重要工具,特別是在資本密集型企業中。當我們檢查債務水平時,我們首先考慮現金和債務水平。
What Is Hanesbrands's Debt?
Hanesbrands的債務是什麼?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Hanesbrands had US$3.28b of debt in September 2024, down from US$3.57b, one year before. On the flip side, it has US$317.9m in cash leading to net debt of about US$2.96b.
您可以點擊下方的圖表查看歷史數據,但數據顯示,哈尼斯品牌服裝公司在2024年9月有32.8億美元的債務,比一年前的35.7億美元減少。另一方面,其現金爲31790萬美元,淨債務約爲29.6億美元。
How Strong Is Hanesbrands' Balance Sheet?
哈尼斯品牌服裝的資產負債表有多牢固?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Hanesbrands had liabilities of US$1.58b due within 12 months and liabilities of US$3.74b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$317.9m and US$505.6m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling US$4.49b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
深入了解最新的資產負債表數據,我們可以看到哈尼斯品牌服裝在12個月內到期的負債爲15.8億美元,而到期期限超過12個月的負債爲37.4億美元。另一方面,它持有31790萬美元的現金和50560萬美元價值的一年內到期應收賬款。因此,它的負債總額高達44.9億美元,比其現金和短期應收賬款總和多出。
Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's market capitalization of US$3.01b, we think shareholders really should watch Hanesbrands's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price.
考慮到這一赤字實際上高於公司市值的30.1億美元,我們認爲股東們確實應該像父母看着孩子第一次騎自行車那樣關注哈尼斯品牌服裝的債務水平。從假設情況來看,如果公司被迫以當前股價籌集資金償還其負債,那將需要極高的稀釋。
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
我們通過將公司的淨債務與其息稅折舊攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)相除,並計算其息稅前利潤(EBIT)如何覆蓋其利息費用(利息覆蓋率)來衡量公司的債務負擔相對於其盈利能力。因此,我們同時考慮債務的絕對數量以及所支付的利率。
While we wouldn't worry about Hanesbrands's net debt to EBITDA ratio of 4.9, we think its super-low interest cover of 1.9 times is a sign of high leverage. So shareholders should probably be aware that interest expenses appear to have really impacted the business lately. However, it should be some comfort for shareholders to recall that Hanesbrands actually grew its EBIT by a hefty 130%, over the last 12 months. If that earnings trend continues it will make its debt load much more manageable in the future. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Hanesbrands's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
雖然我們不擔心哈尼斯品牌服裝的淨債務與EBITDA比率爲4.9,但我們認爲其極低的利息覆蓋率爲1.9倍是高槓杆的跡象。因此,股東們應該意識到利息支出似乎最近確實對業務產生了影響。然而,對股東來說,值得安慰的是回想哈尼斯品牌服裝在過去12個月實際上將其EBIT增長了驚人的130%。如果這種盈利趨勢持續下去,那將使其未來的債務負擔變得更加可管理。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是明顯的起點。但與任何東西相比,未來的收益將決定哈尼斯品牌服裝未來維持健康資產負債表能力。因此,如果您關注未來,可以查看此免費報告,其中顯示了分析師的利潤預測。
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the last three years, Hanesbrands reported free cash flow worth 13% of its EBIT, which is really quite low. That limp level of cash conversion undermines its ability to manage and pay down debt.
但是我們的最終考慮也很重要,因爲一家公司不能用紙面利潤來償還債務;它需要冷硬現金。因此,邏輯上看,要評估實際自由現金流匹配的EBIt比例。在過去三年中,哈尼斯品牌服裝報告的自由現金流佔其EBIt的比例爲13%,這實際上相當低。這種軟弱的現金轉化水平削弱了其管理和償還債務的能力。
Our View
我們的觀點
On the face of it, Hanesbrands's interest cover left us tentative about the stock, and its level of total liabilities was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But on the bright side, its EBIT growth rate is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. We're quite clear that we consider Hanesbrands to be really rather risky, as a result of its balance sheet health. For this reason we're pretty cautious about the stock, and we think shareholders should keep a close eye on its liquidity. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 1 warning sign with Hanesbrands , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
表面上看,哈尼斯品牌服裝的利息償付比讓我們對股票感到猶豫不決,其總負債水平也不比一年中最繁忙的夜晚上那家空無一人的餐廳更吸引人。但好的一面是,它的EBIt增長率是一個好跡象,讓我們更加樂觀。我們非常明確地認爲哈尼斯品牌服裝的風險相當高,這是由於其資產負債表健康狀況所致。因此,我們對股票相當謹慎,並認爲股東應該密切關注其流動性。資產負債表顯然是分析負債時要關注的領域。但最終,每家公司都可能存在資產負債表之外的風險。我們已經識別了哈尼斯品牌服裝的1個警示信號,了解它們應該成爲您投資過程的一部分。
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
當然,如果您是那種喜歡購買沒有債務負擔的股票的投資者,那麼不要猶豫,立即發現我們獨家的淨現金增長股票列表。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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Simply Wall St的這篇文章是一般性質的。我們僅基於歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,使用公正的方法,我們的文章並非意在提供財務建議。這並不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,並且不考慮您的目標或財務狀況。我們旨在爲您帶來基於基礎數據驅動的長期聚焦分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St對提及的任何股票都沒有持倉。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。