BYDE(285.HK)NDR TAKEAWAYS:APPLE NEV PRODUCTS AND AI SERVER ARE KEY GROWTH DRIVERS IN 2025
BYDE(285.HK)NDR TAKEAWAYS:APPLE NEV PRODUCTS AND AI SERVER ARE KEY GROWTH DRIVERS IN 2025
AI server: ODM server shipment on track; guided RMB1bn/3-5bn sales in FY24/25E. Mgmt. reiterated that AI server ODM shipment to domestic CSP customers is well on track. For GB200 server components, mgmt. stated that they are working closely with Nvidia for product qualifications, including coldplate, high-speed connectors, power board and CDU, and expect delivery to kick off in 2025. Overall, mgmt. guided AI server sales to reach RMB1bn in FY24E and RMB3-5bn in FY25E, and guided server component GPM is likely to be at ~10% similar to industry peers.We hosted BYDE at 4Q outlook NDR call. Mgmt. highlighted their positive outlook across all segments in 4Q24/2025: 1) Apple/Android: iPad share gains, Jabil's enhanced automation and high-end Android demand; 2) NEV: rising penetration and installation of high-end ADAS and suspension products to drive growth; 3) AI server: positive on ODM products' ramp-up and GB200 component product roadmap with Nvidia. Trading at 11.9x FY25E P/E, we believe the stock is attractive. Our SOTP-based TP is HK$44.41, implying 15.0x FY25E P/E. Maintain BUY and BYDE is our sector top pick.
我們在第四季展望NDR電話會議上接待了比亞迪。管理層強調了他們對2024/2025年第四季所有板塊的積極展望：1）蘋果/安卓：iPad份額增長，捷普科技的增強自動化和高端安卓需求；2）新能源車：高端ADAS和懸掛產品普及率提高，推動增長；3）AI服務器：對ODm產品的推廣和與英偉達合作的GB200元件產品路線圖持樂觀態度。根據FY25E的市盈率爲11.9倍，我們認爲這支股票很有吸引力。我們基於SOTP的目標價爲HK$44.41，暗示着FY25E的市盈率爲15.0倍。維持買入評級，比亞迪是我們行業板塊的首選。
Smartphones: iPad share gains, Jabil profitability and high-end Android demand. For Apple biz, mgmt. remains positive on iPad/metal share gains and Jabil profitability in 4Q24/2025 thanks to automation, rising UTR, capacity ramp-up and better yield. For Android biz, mgmt. believes high-end demand growth is an ongoing industry trend and BYDE will benefit from Samsung/Xiaomi/Honor new model launches and order wins.
智能手機：iPad份額增長，捷普科技盈利能力和高端安卓需求。對於蘋果業務，管理層仍對iPad/金屬份額增長和捷普科技在2024/2025年第四季的盈利能力持積極態度，得益於自動化、UTR上升、產能提升和更好的產量。對於安卓業務，管理層認爲高端需求增長是一個持續的行業趨勢，並且比亞迪將從三星/小米/榮耀的新型號推出和訂單獲得中受益。
Automotive: revenue to reach RMB30bn in FY25E. Mgmt. highlighted below during our meetings: 1) thermal management and high-end ADAS products to deliver strong growth in 2024; 2) smart cockpit growth driven by Parentco orders; 3) suspension products to enter mass production by end- 2024 and boost sales growth in FY25E; 4) high-end ADAS penetration and shipment growth in FY25E. Overall, mgmt. guided automotive revenue of RMB30bn in 2025 and RMB50-60bn in the long term, driven by rising penetration of ADAS, suspension, and new products ramp-up.
汽車業務：預計FY25E營業收入將達到人民幣300億元。管理層在我們的會議中強調了以下內容：1）熱管理和高端ADAS產品將在2024年實現強勁增長；2）由母公司訂單推動的智能座艙增長；3）懸掛產品將於2024年底投入量產，並推動FY25E銷售增長；4）FY25E高端ADAS普及率和出貨增長。總體而言，管理層指導2025年汽車業務收入爲人民幣300億元，長期目標爲人民幣500-600億元，得益於ADAS、懸掛產品的普及率提高和新產品的推廣。
AI server: ODM server shipment on track; guided RMB1bn/3-5bn sales in FY24/25E. Mgmt. reiterated that AI server ODM shipment to domestic CSP customers is well on track. For GB200 server components, mgmt. stated that they are working closely with Nvidia for product qualifications, including coldplate, high-speed connectors, power board and CDU, and expect delivery to kick off in 2025. Overall, mgmt. guided AI server sales to reach RMB1bn in FY24E and RMB3-5bn in FY25E, and guided server component GPM is likely to be at ~10% similar to industry peers.
AI服務器：ODm服務器出貨如期；指導FY24/25E銷售額爲人民幣10億元/30-50億元。管理層重申AI服務器ODm產品向國內CSP客戶的出貨進展順利。對於GB200服務器元件，管理層表示他們與英偉達密切合作進行產品合格性認證，包括冷板、高速連接器、電源板和CDU，預計在2025年開始交付。總體而言，管理層指導AI服務器銷售額將在FY24E達到10億元人民幣，在FY25E達到30-50億元人民幣，並指導服務器元件GPm可能和行業同行類似，約爲10%。
Maintain BUY. We remain positive on the iPhone AI cycle, stable Android flagship demand, high-end NEV products and AI server momentum in 2025. Trading at 11.9x FY25E P/E, we believe the stock is attractive. Our SOTP- based TP is HK$44.41, implying 15.0x FY25E P/E. Maintain BUY.
維持買入。我們對2025年iPhone人工智能週期、穩定的安卓旗艦需求、高端NEV產品和雲計算服務器的上升勢頭保持樂觀態度。以11.9倍FY25E市盈率交易，我們認爲該股具有吸引力。我們基於SOTP的目標價爲44.41港元，暗示着15.0倍FY25E市盈率。維持買入。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。