Korean Won Under Pressure: How The Strong Dollar Is Shaping Policy
Korean Won Under Pressure: How The Strong Dollar Is Shaping Policy
Jun-yeong Kim, economist at DS Investment and Securities, highlighted the BOK's caution, citing "heightened FX volatility" due to what is termed "Trump trade" and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance.
The Bank of Korea (BOK) is widely expected to maintain its key policy rate at 3.25% this week to bolster the Korean won amid the US dollar's recent surge, according to a Reuters poll.
韓國銀行（BOK）被廣泛預期本週將維持關鍵政策利率在3.25%，以增強韓元在美元最近上漲的背景下。
Approximately 90% of the 38 economists surveyed between Nov 18 to 25, anticipate the central bank will keep rates steady on Thursday. Only four forecast a 25-basis-point cut.
在11月18日至25日之間調查的38位經濟學家中，大約90%預計中央銀行將在週四保持利率不變。只有四位預測將下降25個點子。
This pause in the easing cycle, which began just last month, comes as the won has depreciated 2% in November. Analysts attribute this to concerns over inflationary pressures from US President-elect Donald Trump's policies and the intensified Russia-Ukraine conflict.
這種自上個月以來的寬鬆週期暫停發生在韓元在11月貶值2%的背景下。分析師將其歸因於美國當選總統特朗普政策帶來的通脹壓力擔憂，以及俄羅斯-烏克蘭衝突的加劇。
Jun-yeong Kim, economist at DS Investment and Securities, highlighted the BOK's caution, citing "heightened FX volatility" due to what is termed "Trump trade" and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance.
DS投資證券的經濟學家金俊永指出，BOK的謹慎態度，提到由於所謂的「特朗普交易」，外匯波動性加大。
While inflation remains below the 2% target and the economy faces challenges after narrowly avoiding recession, analysts believe the BOK will delay rate cuts until the won stabilises around the mid-1,300s against the dollar.
儘管通脹率仍低於2%的目標，經濟面臨 narrowly avoiding recession 之後的挑戰，分析師認爲BOK會推遲減息，直到韓元穩定在對美元中位數1300的附近。
The won broke through 1,400 per US dollar this month for the first time since April. Expectations of continued dollar strength in 2025 suggest fewer rate cuts in South Korea than in the US, with Reuters polls projecting a 75-basis-point reduction by the BOK next year, compared to a full percentage point by the Federal Reserve.
本月韓元首次突破1,400韓元兌美元。預計2025年美元繼續強勢，這使得韓國的減息次數少於美國，路透社的調查預測明年BOK將減息75個點子，而聯儲局將減息一個百分點。
Forecasts for South Korea's interest rates were revised to three 25-basis-point cuts in January-September 2025 from two cuts predicted earlier. Analysts cited risks to growth in an economy burdened by one of the world's highest household debt levels.
對韓國利率的預測從之前預測的兩次減息修正爲2025年1月至9月的三次25個點子減息。分析師指出，經濟承受着全球最高的家庭債務水平之一，這對增長構成了風險。
Among 25 economists who provided year-end projections, two-thirds foresee rates ending 2025 at 2.50% or lower, the central bank's neutral rate, while eight anticipate rates at 2.75% or higher.
在提供年終預測的25位經濟學家中，三分之二預計到2025年利率將降至2.50%或更低，即中央銀行的中立利率，而八位預期利率將達到2.75%或更高。
"Current monetary policy settings are still restrictive and further rate cuts are likely," said Krystal Tan, economist at ANZ. She added that the slowing pace of household debt and housing price growth may offer the BOK some comfort in implementing these cuts.
"當前貨幣政策仍然較爲緊縮，進一步的利率期貨削減是可能的，" ANZ的經濟學家Krystal Tan表示。她補充說，家庭債務和房價增長放緩可能會讓韓國銀行在實施這些削減時感到一些寬慰。
Some economists anticipate the BOK may revise its 2025 economic growth forecast, currently at 2.1%, reflecting heightened risks.
一些經濟學家預計，韓國銀行可能會修訂其2025年經濟增長預測，目前爲2.1%，反映出風險加劇。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
