Why Walmart, Amazon Stock Could Stumble This Holiday Season
Why Walmart, Amazon Stock Could Stumble This Holiday Season
Shares of Walmart fell by an average of 1.1% during the month, marking their worst average monthly performance.Traders eyeing U.S. retail giants like Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), Walmart Inc. (NYSE:WMT) and Best Buy ahead of Black Friday and Cyber Monday may be in for an unpleasant surprise as December kicks in.
交易者在黑色星期五和網絡星期一之前關注美國零售巨頭如亞馬遜（納斯達克：AMZN）、沃爾瑪（紐交所：WMT）和百思買，可能會在十二月來臨時感到不快的驚喜。
Despite the holiday shopping frenzy, historical data spanning decades suggests December is not the ideal month to invest in these retail behemoths.
儘管假日購物熱潮掀起，跨越數十年的歷史數據表明，十二月並不是投資這些零售巨頭的理想月份。
December Is (Not) The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year For Walmart
對於沃爾瑪來說，十二月並不是一年中最美好的時光。
Over the last 20 years, December has been Walmart's weakest month of the year.
在過去的20年裏，十二月是沃爾瑪一年中表現最差的月份。
Shares of Walmart fell by an average of 1.1% during the month, marking their worst average monthly performance.
沃爾瑪的股票在這個月平均下降了1.1%，創下其最差的平均月度表現。
Adding to the gloom, Walmart shares have only closed December in positive territory 40% of the time—just 8 times in 20 years. This is the lowest winning ratio for any month in the calendar year.
更糟糕的是，沃爾瑪的股票在十二月僅有40%的時間維持在正值，過去20年中只有8次。這是全年日曆中任何月份的最低勝率。
The retailer's worst December performance in recent history occurred in 2022, when Walmart shares tumbled 7% during the month.
該零售商在最近歷史上表現最差的十二月發生在2022年，當時沃爾瑪的股票在該月下跌了7%。
When extending the timeframe to 30 years, the data remains consistent: December is still Walmart's worst-performing month, with shares dropping 0.9% on average and maintaining a winning ratio of just 40%.
當時間範圍延長至30年時，數據保持一致：12月仍然是沃爾瑪表現最差的月份，平均股票下跌0.9%，勝率僅爲40%。
Read also: November Small-Cap Surge Could Carry Into December's Santa Rally, Historical Trends Suggest
另請閱讀：11月小型股激增可能會延續到12月的聖誕反彈，歷史趨勢顯示。
Amazon Also Sees Red In December
亞馬遜在12月也表現不佳。
Amazon.com Inc. also tends to falter during the holiday season. While the e-commerce giant doesn't post losses as steep as Walmart's, December ranks as Amazon's second-worst month for stock performance, trailing only February.
亞馬遜公司在假期季節也往往會受到影響。雖然這家電子商務巨頭的損失不如沃爾瑪那麼慘重，但12月是亞馬遜股票表現第二差的月份，僅次於2月。
Over the last 20 years, Amazon shares have fallen an average of 0.27% in December, with a winning ratio of just 45%.
在過去20年中，亞馬遜的股票在12月平均下跌0.27%，勝率僅爲45%。
The worst December on record came recently in 2022, when Amazon's stock plummeted by 13%, reflecting broader market turbulence.
最近12月表現最差的一年是2022年，亞馬遜的股票暴跌13%，反映出更廣泛的市場動盪。
However, December hasn't always been grim—Amazon saw some standout gains in the past, including a 20.1% rally in 2008 and an 11.6% jump in 2004.
然而，12月並不總是悲觀的——亞馬遜在過去也曾有顯著的漲幅，包括2008年的20.1%上漲和2004年的11.6%上漲。
Why Do Amazon And Walmart Struggle During the Holidays?
爲什麼亞馬遜和沃爾瑪在假期期間面臨困難？
At first glance, the holiday season—a time of frenzied shopping activity—might seem like a boon for retail stocks. But Wall Street investors often shy away from buying retail giants like Amazon and Walmart during this period, and the reasons boil down to profit margins.
乍一看，假期季節——一個瘋狂購物的時刻——似乎是零售股票的一個好機會。但華爾街的投資者在這一時期通常會避開像亞馬遜和沃爾瑪這樣的零售巨頭，原因歸結爲利潤率。
Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals may boost revenue, but they also weigh on profit margins. The steep discounts needed to attract consumers during the holidays often lead to margin compression, a red flag for investors prioritizing profitability.
黑色星期五和網絡星期一的促銷活動可能會提升營業收入，但它們也會壓縮利潤率。爲了在假期吸引消費者所需的巨額折扣往往導致利潤率壓縮，這對優先考慮盈利能力的投資者來說是一個警示信號。
The holiday period is typically when expectations for retail performance are already sky-high. If results don't meet or exceed those lofty benchmarks, stocks often sell-off.
假期通常是零售業績預期已經非常高的時候。如果結果未能達到或超過這些高標準，股票通常會被拋售。
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Photo: Shutterstock
Photo: shutterstock
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
