ZTO EXPRESS(02057.HK):3Q24 RESULTS IN LINE WITH EXPECTATION; WATCH CHANGES IN COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE IN 2025
ZTO EXPRESS(02057.HK):3Q24 RESULTS IN LINE WITH EXPECTATION; WATCH CHANGES IN COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE IN 2025
Per parcel (unit) data: Revenue per parcel (excluding freight forwarding) rose 2% or Rmb0.02 YoY to Rmb1.20, mainly driven by the growth of parcel volume in reverse logistics and the increasing proportion of small parcels. Cost per parcel (excluding freight forwarding) was Rmb0.82 (largely flat YoY), with transportation cost per parcel down 10% or Rmb0.04 YoY to Rmb0.39 and sorting cost per parcel down 6% or Rmb0.02 YoY to Rmb0.25, mainly thanks to economies of scale brought by parcel volume growth and improved operational efficiency enabled by new technologies such as data monitoring and analysis and automation equipment. Non-GAAP net profit per parcel was Rmb0.27, down 12% or Rmb0.04 YoY and down 18% or Rmb0.06 QoQ. The firm revised its 2024 guidance and now expects its parcel volume to grow 11.6-12.3% in 2024, implying an average daily parcel volume of 92.33-92.88mn.3Q24 results in line with our forecast
2024年第三季度的業績符合我們的預測
ZTO announced its 3Q24 results: Revenue rose 18% YoY to about Rmb10.68bn (largely flat QoQ); gross profit grew 23% YoY to around Rmb3.34bn (-8% QoQ); net profit attributable to shareholders grew 2% YoY to around Rmb2.4bn (-8% QoQ); and non-GAAP net profit rose 2% YoY to around Rmb2.39bn (-15% QoQ), in line with our expectations.
ZTO公佈了其2024年第三季度的業績：營業收入同比增長18%至約106.8億元人民幣（環比基本持平）；毛利潤同比增長23%至約33.4億元人民幣（環比下降8%）；歸屬於股東的淨利潤同比增長2%至約24億元人民幣（環比下降8%）；非GAAP淨利潤同比增長2%至約23.9億元人民幣（環比下降15%），符合我們的預期。
In 3Q24, parcel volume rose 16% YoY to about 8.72bn units, and market share (based on the new standard) rose 0.4ppt QoQ to 20.0%, due to the State Post Bureau's adjustment of the calculation standard of industry data and the firm's product mix adjustment.
在2024年第三季度，包裹成交量同比增長16%至約87.2億個單元，市場份額（基於新標準）環比上升0.4個百分點至20.0%，這得益於國家郵政局對行業數據計算標準的調整以及公司的產品組合調整。
Per parcel (unit) data: Revenue per parcel (excluding freight forwarding) rose 2% or Rmb0.02 YoY to Rmb1.20, mainly driven by the growth of parcel volume in reverse logistics and the increasing proportion of small parcels. Cost per parcel (excluding freight forwarding) was Rmb0.82 (largely flat YoY), with transportation cost per parcel down 10% or Rmb0.04 YoY to Rmb0.39 and sorting cost per parcel down 6% or Rmb0.02 YoY to Rmb0.25, mainly thanks to economies of scale brought by parcel volume growth and improved operational efficiency enabled by new technologies such as data monitoring and analysis and automation equipment. Non-GAAP net profit per parcel was Rmb0.27, down 12% or Rmb0.04 YoY and down 18% or Rmb0.06 QoQ. The firm revised its 2024 guidance and now expects its parcel volume to grow 11.6-12.3% in 2024, implying an average daily parcel volume of 92.33-92.88mn.
每個包裹（單位）數據：每個包裹的營業收入（不包括貨運）同比增長2%或0.02元人民幣，達到1.20元人民幣，這主要得益於逆向物流包裹成交量的增長和小包裹比例的提高。每個包裹的成本（不包括貨運）爲0.82元人民幣（同比基本持平），每個包裹的運輸成本同比下降10%或0.04元人民幣，降至0.39元人民幣，每個包裹的分揀成本同比下降6%或0.02元人民幣，降至0.25元人民幣，這主要得益於包裹成交量增長帶來的規模經濟效益以及數據監控和分析和自動化設備等新技術帶來的運營效率提升。每個包裹的非GAAP淨利潤爲0.27元人民幣，同比下降12%或0.04元人民幣，環比下降18%或0.06元人民幣。公司調整了2024年的指引，現在預計其包裹成交量將在2024年增長11.6%-12.3%，這意味着平均每日包裹成交量在9233萬-9288萬之間。
Trends to watch
需要注意的趨勢
Industry level: Demand has been improving YTD, and we suggest watching potential changes in competitive landscape in 2025. According to the State Post Bureau, industry parcel volume rose 20% YoY in 3Q24 and 24% YoY in October. We think express delivery demand may continue to improve this year, thanks to live-streaming e-commerce and the shift towards smaller parcels. We expect the demand to maintain double- digit growth in 2025. We believe regulators still attach importance to the high-quality development of the industry. However, we suggest paying attention to potential changes in regional competitive landscape in the slack season in 2025, given rising proportion of small parcels and price-sensitive merchants.
行業層面：需求年初至今已有所改善，我們建議關注2025年競爭格局可能的變化。根據國家郵政局的數據，2024年第三季度行業包裹成交量同比增長20%，10月同比增長24%。我們認爲，快遞需求由於直播電子商務和向小包裹轉變的影響可能繼續改善。我們預計2025年需求將保持兩位數的增長。我們相信監管機構仍然重視行業的高質量發展。然而，鑑於小包裹比例上升和價格敏感型商家的存在，我們建議關注2025年淡季區域競爭格局可能的變化。
Company level: We expect ZTO's profit per parcel to remain stable YoY in 2024, but to come under pressure in 2025 due to price competition. The firm maintained stable per-parcel profit and overall profitability in 3Q24, despite falling industry ASP. We think this underscores its leading position in the industry. We expect the firm's per- parcel profit to remain stable YoY in 2024. Given potential changes in the industry's competitive landscape next year, we expect ZTO's per-parcel profit to be under pressure in 2025, although its market share may rise YoY.
公司層面：我們預計ZTO每個包裹的毛利潤在2024年將保持同比穩定，但由於價格競爭，2025年將面臨壓力。儘管行業的平均售價下跌，該公司在2024年第三季度維持了每個包裹的穩定毛利潤和整體盈利能力。我們認爲這突顯了其在行業中的領先地位。我們預計該公司的每個包裹毛利潤在2024年將保持同比穩定。考慮到明年行業競爭格局可能發生變化，我們預計ZTO的每個包裹毛利潤在2025年將受到壓力，儘管其市場份額可能同比上升。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值。
We keep our 2024 earnings forecast largely unchanged. Given potential changes in the competitive landscape in 2025, we lower our 2025 earnings forecast 9% to about Rmb10.79bn. The stock is trading at 11.2x 2024e and 10.9x 2025e P/E. Maintain OUTPERFORM. Given the downward earnings forecast revision and valuation rollover to 2025, we cut our target price 7% to US$25.7 (14x 2024e and 14x 2025e P/E), offering 28.5% upside.
我們保持2024年盈利預期基本不變。考慮到2025年競爭格局可能發生變化，我們將2025年盈利預期下調9%至約107.9億人民幣。該股目前的市盈率爲2024e 11.2倍和2025e 10.9倍。維持跑贏大盤。鑑於盈利預期下調及估值轉到2025年，我們將目標價下調7%至25.7美元（2024e和2025e的市盈率均爲14倍），提供28.5%的上行空間。
Risks
風險
Parcel volume growth disappoints; competitive landscape deteriorates.
包裹成交量增長令人失望；競爭格局惡化。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
