Is Imperial Oil Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold for 2025?
Is Imperial Oil Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold for 2025?
Imperial Oil reported earnings of $1.24 billion with an operating cash flow of $1.48 billion in Q3 of 2024, enabling it to offset a moderation in crude prices and refining margins. Its Upstream business reported a total production of 447,00 gross equivalent barrels per day in Q3 — the highest Q3 production over the past three decades.Shares of Imperial Oil (TSX:IMO) have risen 94% in the last 10 years. But if we adjust for dividend reinvestments, cumulative returns are closer to 142%, higher than the TSX index, which has returned 131% since November 2014.
帝國石油（tsx：IMO）的股票在過去10年中上漲了94%。但如果我們考慮到股息再投資，累計回報率接近142%，高於自2014年11月以來上漲了131%的tsx指數。
Notably, Imperial Oil has outpaced the TSX over a 20-year period as well, rising 516%, while the broader market has gained 414%. As past returns don't matter much for current and future investors, let's see if this blue-chip TSX dividend stock should be part of your equity portfolio in 2025.
值得注意的是，帝國石油在過去的20年中也超越了tsx，增長了516%，而整體市場增長了414%。由於過去的回報對當前和未來的投資者影響不大，讓我們來看看這隻藍籌tsx分紅派息股票是否應該成爲你在2025年的股票投資組合的一部分。
Is Imperial Oil stock a good buy right now?
現在買入帝國石油股票合適嗎？
Valued at a market cap of $55 billion, Imperial Oil is among the largest energy stocks globally, engaged in the exploration, production, and sale of crude oil and natural gas in Canada. Despite lower commodity prices, Imperial Oil has showcased strong operational performance across business segments in 2024. In the third quarter (Q3) of 2024, its net income rose 10% sequentially due to record production in its Upstream business and a focus on cost efficiencies.
帝國石油市值爲550億美元，是全球最大的能源股票之一，主要從事在加拿大的原油和天然氣的勘探、生產和銷售。儘管商品價格較低，帝國石油在2024年的各個業務板塊中展示了強勁的運營表現。在2024年第三季度（Q3），由於其上游業務的創紀錄生產和對成本效益的關注，其淨利潤環比增長了10%。
Imperial Oil reported earnings of $1.24 billion with an operating cash flow of $1.48 billion in Q3 of 2024, enabling it to offset a moderation in crude prices and refining margins. Its Upstream business reported a total production of 447,00 gross equivalent barrels per day in Q3 — the highest Q3 production over the past three decades.
帝國石油在2024年第三季度報告的收入爲12.4億，運營現金流爲14.8億，使其能夠抵消原油價格和煉油利潤的趨緩。其上游業務在第三季度報告的總產量爲447,000桶的油當量每日——這是過去三十年來第三季度的最高產量。
The oil giant emphasized that its structural cost-reduction efforts and strategic volume growth helped drive unit cost savings of more than $3 a barrel year over year.
這家石油巨頭強調，其結構性成本降低措施和戰略性產量增長幫助驅動了單位成本的節省，比去年每桶多節省了3美元。
A growing dividend
不斷增長的分紅派息
| COMPANY | PRICE | NUMBER OF SHARES | DIVIDEND | TOTAL PAYOUT | FREQUENCY |
| Imperial Oil (1999) | $11.5 | 435 | $0.0625 | $27 | Quarterly |
| Imperial Oil (2024) | $106.33 | 435 | $0.60 | $261 | Quarterly |
| 公司 | 價格 | 股份數量 | 紅利 | 總支付 | 頻率 |
| 帝國石油 (1999) | $11.5 | 435 | $0.0625 | $27 | 季度 |
| 帝國石油 (2024) | $106.33 | 435 | $0.60 | $261 | 季度 |
We have seen that reinvesting dividends has allowed shareholders to benefit from sizeable gains over time. One reason is due to Imperial Oil's growing dividend payout. Today, Imperial Oil pays shareholders an annual dividend of $2.40 per share, which translates to a yield of 2.3%. These payouts have risen from $0.25 per share in November 1999, indicating a compound annual growth rate of 9.6% over 25 years, which is exceptional for a cyclical company.
我們看到，重新投資分紅使得股東能夠在時間的推移中獲得可觀的收益。一個原因是帝國石油不斷增長的分紅派息。今天，帝國石油每年向股東支付每股2.40美元的分紅派息，摺合2.3%的收益率。這些分紅派息從1999年11月的每股0.25美元上升，顯示出25年的複合年增長率達9.6%，對於一家週期性公司來說，這非常出色。
In November 1999, Imperial Oil stock was priced at $11.5 per share. An investment of $5,000 in IMO stock 25 years ago would have let you buy 435 shares of the company, resulting in an annual dividend of roughly $109 over the next 12 months. Today, these 435 shares will pay you more than $1,040 in yearly dividends, enhancing your yield from 2.2% to 20% in this period.
在1999年11月，帝國石油的股票價格爲每股11.5美元。25年前如果投資5,000美元購買帝國石油的股票，您將能夠購買435股公司股票，預計在接下來的12個月內獲得大約109美元的年分紅派息。今天，這435股將爲您支付超過1,040美元的年分紅派息，使您的收益率從2.2%提升到20%。
Given an operating cash flow of $1.48 billion and capital expenditures of $486 million, Imperial Oil ended Q3 with a free cash flow of $1 billion. Comparatively, its dividend expense stood at $315 million, indicating a payout ratio of 32%, which is sustainable, even if oil prices drop significantly.
根據14.8億的運營現金流和48600萬的資本支出，帝國石油在第三季度結束時的自由現金流爲10億。相比之下，其分紅派息支出爲31500萬，表明其支付比率爲32%，即使油價顯著下跌，這也是可持續的。
What is the target price for Imperial Oil stock?
帝國石油的目標價是多少？
In the last 12 months, Imperial Oil has reported a free cash flow of $3.6 billion and is forecast to end 2025 with a free cash flow of $4.5 billion. So, if the TSX stock is priced at 15 times trailing FCF, it will be valued at $67.5 billion in early 2026, indicating an upside potential of over 20% from current levels. After adjusting for dividend reinvestments, total returns will be over 27%.
在過去的12個月中，帝國石油報告的自由現金流爲36億，預計到2025年將達到45億。因此，如果tsx的股票以15倍的過往自由現金流定價，那麼在2026年初，它的市值將爲675億，表明當前水平有超過20%的上漲潛力。在考慮分紅再投資後，整體回報將超過27%。
Alternatively, Bay Street remains cautious and expects IMO stock to fall by 3% in the next 12 months.
另一方面，Bay Street保持謹慎，預計帝國石油的股票在接下來的12個月內將下跌3%。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
