ZTO EXPRESS(2057.HK):STILL POSITIVE ON PROFITABLE GROWTH STRATEGY DESPITE LOWER VOLUME GUIDANCE
ZTO EXPRESS(2057.HK):STILL POSITIVE ON PROFITABLE GROWTH STRATEGY DESPITE LOWER VOLUME GUIDANCE
EBIT grew 17% YoY to RMB2.8bn, driven by an 18% YoY increase in revenue and 1.4ppt gross margin expansion, partially offset by a 25% increase in SG&A and reduction of other income. Pretax net income increased only 12% YoY to RMB2.9bn, due to FX loss.ZTO Express (ZTO) EBIT grew 17% YoY to RMB2.8bn, which is in line with our expectation. Reported net profit in 3Q24 grew only 1% YoY to RMB2.46bn, but this was largely due to one-off tax refunds in 3Q23. Unit gross margin expanded 6.5% YoY to RMB0.38/parcel in 3Q24 amid industry price competition. ZTO revised down the full-year parcel volume growth guidance to 11.6-12.3% (from 15-18% in Aug), which implies 7.5-10% growth in 4Q24E. That said, we think the lower target is aligned with ZTO's strategic focus of profitable growth. We trim our 2024E-26E earnings forecast by 5-9%, due to lower volume and unit gross margin. Accordingly, our TP for ZTO US/2057 HK is revised down to US$34.5/HK$271, based on 22x 2024E P/E (previously 23x), equivalent to the historical average. We continue to like ZTO's strong free cash flow capability.
中通快遞（ZTO）EBIT同比增長17%，達到28億元人民幣，這與我們的預期一致。報告顯示，2024年第三季度的淨利潤同比僅增長1%，達到24.6億元人民幣，但這主要是由於2023年第三季度一次性稅收退款。單位毛利率在行業價格競爭中同比擴大6.5%，在2024年第三季度達到每個包裹0.38元人民幣。中通快遞將全年包裹量增長指導下調至11.6%-12.3%（從8月份的15%-18%下調），這意味着2024年第四季度預計增長7.5%-10%。也就是說，我們認爲較低的目標與中通快遞的盈利增長戰略聚焦一致。由於成交量和單位毛利率降低，我們將2024年至2026年的盈利預測下調5%-9%。因此，我們對中通快遞的目標價調整爲34.5美元/271港元，基於22倍的2024年預期市盈率（之前爲23倍），相當於歷史平均水平。我們繼續看好中通快遞強大的自由現金流能力。
Maintain BUY.
維持買入。
Key highlights in 3Q24 results:
2024年第三季度業績的關鍵亮點：
EBIT grew 17% YoY to RMB2.8bn, driven by an 18% YoY increase in revenue and 1.4ppt gross margin expansion, partially offset by a 25% increase in SG&A and reduction of other income. Pretax net income increased only 12% YoY to RMB2.9bn, due to FX loss.
EBIT同比增長17%，達到28億元人民幣，得益於營業收入同比增長18%和毛利率擴張1.4個百分點，部分抵消了銷售和管理費用增加25%及其他收入減少的影響。稅前淨利潤僅同比增加12%，達到29億元人民幣，因外匯損失。
Parcel volume +16% YoY to 8.72bn units. Market share in 3Q24 was20%, down 2.4ppt YoY but slightly up 0.4ppt QoQ, as ZTO focused on profitable parcel volume growth instead of volume.
包裹量同比增長16%，達到87.2億個。2024年第三季度市場份額爲20%，同比下降2.4個百分點，但環比小幅上升0.4個百分點，因爲中通快遞專注於盈利的包裹量增長而非單純的量。
ZTO's parcel delivery ASP increased YoY while major players saw ASPreduction. ASP in 3Q24 increased RMB0.03/parcel (or 1.8%) YoY to RMB1.20/unit (breakdown: reverse parcels +RMB0.07, parcel weight - RMB0.02, volume incentives -RMB0.02). This is much better than other key players such as Yunda (-10%), YTO (-6%) and STO (-5%).
中通快遞的包裹配送平均售價同比增長，而主要競爭對手則出現了售價下降。2024年第三季度每個包裹的平均售價同比增加0.03元（或1.8%），達到1.20元（細分：逆向包裹+0.07元，包裹重量-0.02元，成交量激勵-0.02元）。這比韻達（-10%）、圓通（-6%）和申通（-5%）等主要競爭對手錶現得要好得多。
Unit cost was stable (YoY) at RMB0.82/parcel. Unit cost of transportationdecreased RMB0.04 (or -10% YoY) to RMB0.39/unit, helped by economies of scale and improved load rate. Unit cost of sorting hubs dropped 6% YoY to RMB0.25/unit, helped by the standardization in operating procedures and an increase in automation level. Other unit cost increased RMB0.05/unit (or 56%) to RMB0.15/unit, due to a low base.
單位成本穩定（同比）在0.82元/包裹。運輸單位成本減少0.04元（或-10%同比），降至0.39元/單位，得益於規模經濟和提高的裝載率。分揀中心的單位成本同比下降6%，降至0.25元/單位，得益於操作程序的標準化和自動化水平的提高。其他單位成本增加0.05元/單位（或56%），達到0.15元/單位，因基數較低。
Major risk factors: (1) a prolonged price war; (2) further slowdown of overall consumption.
主要風險因素：（1）價格戰的長期化；（2）整體消費進一步放緩。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
