XIAOMI(1810.HK):3Q24 BEAT ON STRONGER EV/CORE BUSINESS MARGIN;SOLID EXECUTION OF "HUMAN×CAR×HOME" STRATEGY
XIAOMI(1810.HK):3Q24 BEAT ON STRONGER EV/CORE BUSINESS MARGIN;SOLID EXECUTION OF "HUMAN×CAR×HOME" STRATEGY
Accelerated growth in core business and EV; Reiterate BUY. We believe Xiaomi's "Human x Car x Home" ecosystem is poised to bear fruit from global market share gains and AI upgrade cycle in FY25/26E, and we expect further upside in EV business backed by new model launch and production capacity improvements. Reiterate BUY with new SOTP-based TP of HK$32.7, implying 24.3x FY25E P/E.Positive on core business outlook and EV upside.Xiaomi delivered another beat with 3Q24 revenue/adj. net profit growth of 31%/ 4% YoY. Adj. net profit is 3%/6% ahead of our/consensus estimates, thanks to better EV/core business margins and investment related gains. Xiaomi's EV GPM came in strong at 17.1% (vs. 2Q24 15.4%), above market expectations. Mgmt. guided EV GPM to improve QoQ in 4Q24E and lifted annual delivery target to 130k units (vs. previous 100k). Looking ahead, we remain positive on Xiaomi's solid execution of "Human x Car x Home" strategy, backed by smartphone global share gains, AIoT growth in expanding SKUs (tablets/wearables/home appliance) and improving mix, and EV shipment momentum into FY25-26E. Reiterate BUY with new SOTP-based TP of HK$32.7, implying 24.3x FY25E P/E. Upcoming catalysts include SUV model launch, smartphone/AIoT share gains, overseas store expansion and EV order/delivery/profitability updates.
小米在2024年第三季度的營業收入和調整後淨利潤同比增長分別爲31%和4%，再次超出預期。由於電動汽車/核心業務毛利率改善和投資相關的收益，調整後淨利潤比我們的預測和市場一致預期高出3%/6%。小米的電動汽車毛利率表現強勁，達到17.1%（相比2024年第二季度的15.4%），超出市場預期。管理層預計2024年第四季度電動汽車毛利率將環比改善，並將年度交付目標上調至13萬台（相比之前的10萬台）。展望未來，我們對小米「人x車x家」策略的堅定執行保持樂觀，該策略得益於智能手機全球市場份額的提升、人工智能物聯網（AIoT）在擴展SKU（平板電腦/可穿戴設備/家電）方面的增長以及電動汽車發貨的勢頭進入2025至2026財年。重申買入，給予新的基於SOTP的目標價爲32.7港元，暗示2025財年24.3倍的市盈率。即將到來的催化劑包括SUV車型發佈、智能手機/人工智能物聯網市場份額的提升、境外店鋪擴張以及電動汽車的訂單/交付/盈利情況更新。
3Q24 beat on stronger smartphone and AIoT/Internet/EV margins. Xiaomi's 3Q24 global smartphone shipment grew 3.2% YoY and ASP improved 10.6% YoY due to market share gains and higher sales of premium models. By segment, smartphone/AIoT/internet revenue grew 14%/26%/9% YoY, boosted by stronger smartphone/large home appliance/wearables and global user base expansion. Smartphone GPM came in at 11.7% (vs. 12.1%/14.8% in 2Q/1Q24), largely in-line due to higher BOM costs, while AIoT GPM elevated to 20.8% (+2.9ppts YoY/+1.1ppts QoQ) thanks to higher mix of higher-margin home appliance and wearable products. 3Q24 EV GPM was impressive at 17.1% (vs. 2Q24 15.4%), with further upside in 4Q24E. 3Q24 beat on stronger SP sales and AIoT/Internet/EV margins.
2024年第三季度受益於智能手機和人工智能物聯網/互聯網/電動汽車的更強毛利率表現。小米2024年第三季度全球智能手機出貨量同比增長3.2%，由於市場份額的提升和高端機型銷售的增加，平均售價同比改善10.6%。按板塊劃分，智能手機/人工智能物聯網/互聯網的營業收入分別同比增長14%/26%/9%，得益於智能手機/大型家電/可穿戴設備的強勁需求和全球用戶基礎擴大。智能手機毛利率爲11.7%（相比2024年第二季度的12.1%和第一季度的14.8%），主要與更高的材料成本保持一致，而人工智能物聯網毛利率提升至20.8%（同比+2.9個百分點/環比+1.1個百分點），得益於高毛利的家電和可穿戴產品的比例提高。2024年第三季度電動汽車毛利率表現令人印象深刻，爲17.1%（相比2024年第二季度的15.4%），預計在2024年第四季度還有進一步的上升空間。2024年第三季度銷售受到更強的智能手機銷售和人工智能物聯網/互聯網/電動汽車毛利率的推動。
FY25E outlook: EV & core business momentum to continue, new retail strategy to accelerate. Xiaomi EV reached 20k monthly delivery in October, and mgmt. lifted annual EV delivery target to 130k units (vs. previous 100k) backed by higher efficiency and faster production output. Xiaomi's new retail strategy execution was beyond mgmt. expectations, and new store opening target was lifted to 15k/20k stores by end of FY24/25E (vs. previous 13k/20k by end of FY24/26E). Looking ahead, mgmt. is confident that new retail channel expansion will further boost AIoT home appliance and EV sales, especially in lower-tier cities. Overall, we expect Xiaomi's adj. net profit to grow 28%/25% YoY in FY24/25E.
2025財年的展望：電動汽車及核心業務的勢頭將繼續，新零售策略將加速。小米在十月份實現了2萬台的月交付量，管理層將年度電動汽車交付目標上調至13萬台（相比之前的10萬台），這得益於更高的效率和更快的生產產出。小米的新零售策略執行超出管理層預期，新店開設目標被上調至到2024/2025財年底前新增1.5萬/2萬家店（相比之前的1.3萬/2萬家店到2024/2026財年底前）。展望未來，管理層相信新零售渠道的擴張將進一步推動人工智能物聯網家電和電動汽車的銷售，尤其是在低層城市。總體而言，我們預期小米的調整後淨利潤將在2024/2025財年同比增長28%/25%。
Accelerated growth in core business and EV; Reiterate BUY. We believe Xiaomi's "Human x Car x Home" ecosystem is poised to bear fruit from global market share gains and AI upgrade cycle in FY25/26E, and we expect further upside in EV business backed by new model launch and production capacity improvements. Reiterate BUY with new SOTP-based TP of HK$32.7, implying 24.3x FY25E P/E.Positive on core business outlook and EV upside.
核心業務和電動車的加速增長；重申買入。我們相信小米的「人 x 車 x 家」生態系統將在2025/2026財年從全球市場份額的增長和人工智能升級週期中收穫成果，我們預計電動車業務將在新車型推出和產能提升的支持下進一步增長。重申買入，新的SOTP基礎目標價爲32.7港元，意味着2025財年的市盈率爲24.3倍。對核心業務前景和電動車增長持積極態度。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
