ANE(CAYMAN)INC(09956.HK):3Q24 FREIGHT VOLUME AND REVENUE HIT NEW QUARTERLY HIGHS; PRICING MECHANISM SOLID
ANE(CAYMAN)INC(09956.HK):3Q24 FREIGHT VOLUME AND REVENUE HIT NEW QUARTERLY HIGHS; PRICING MECHANISM SOLID
3Q24 freight volume and revenue hit new quarterly highs. In 3Q24, the company completed shipment of a total freight volume of 3.74mnt (up 18% YoY and up 5% QoQ); it recorded a total number of 45.91mn shipments (up 38% YoY and up 13% QoQ); revenue rose 21% YoY and 5% QoQ to Rmb3.04bn, hitting quarterly highs. 3Q is a traditional slack season for freight transport. The Public Logistics Park Throughput Index fell 7% YoY in July, 6% YoY in August, and 5% YoY in September. The company delivered solid performance, as it rolled out innovative products and increased the number of outlets. As of end-3Q24, the number of its outlets rose about 4,000 YoY to about 32,000. As a result, shipment volume increased steadily and the company improved its end-market services and reduced related costs.3Q24 results beat our expectations
第3季度24財年結果超出我們的預期
ANE announced its 3Q24 results: Revenue rose 21% YoY and 5% QoQ to Rmb3.04bn; gross profit grew 67% YoY to Rmb476mn; gross margin rose 4.3ppt YoY to 15.6%; adjusted net profit grew 28% YoY to Rmb218mn. Factoring in a high base for other income in 3Q23 due to the additional VAT deduction policy (about Rmb60mn), the firm estimates that adjusted pre-tax profit rose 76% YoY in 3Q24. 3Q24 earnings beat our previous forecast (Rmb210mn), mainly due to better-than-expected ASP and continued cost reduction driven by network structure optimization.
ANE宣佈了其3Q24的業績：營業收入同比增長21%，環比增長5%至人民幣30.4億元；毛利潤同比增長67%至人民幣4.76億元；毛利率同比增長4.3個百分點至15.6%；調整後的淨利潤同比增長28%至人民幣2.18億元。考慮到3Q23其他收入的高基數，由於增值稅抵扣政策（約6億元人民幣），公司估計在3Q24年調整前稅前利潤同比增長76%。3Q24年度收益超過我們之前的預測（21億元人民幣），主要歸因於比預期更好的ASP和網絡結構優化持續降低成本。
Trends to watch
需要注意的趨勢
3Q24 freight volume and revenue hit new quarterly highs. In 3Q24, the company completed shipment of a total freight volume of 3.74mnt (up 18% YoY and up 5% QoQ); it recorded a total number of 45.91mn shipments (up 38% YoY and up 13% QoQ); revenue rose 21% YoY and 5% QoQ to Rmb3.04bn, hitting quarterly highs. 3Q is a traditional slack season for freight transport. The Public Logistics Park Throughput Index fell 7% YoY in July, 6% YoY in August, and 5% YoY in September. The company delivered solid performance, as it rolled out innovative products and increased the number of outlets. As of end-3Q24, the number of its outlets rose about 4,000 YoY to about 32,000. As a result, shipment volume increased steadily and the company improved its end-market services and reduced related costs.
3Q24年運輸量和營業收入創下了新的季度紀錄。在3Q24，公司完成了總運輸量達到374萬噸（同比增長18%，環比增長5%）；錄得的貨運總量達4591萬票（同比增長38%，環比增長13%）；營業收入同比增長21%，環比增長5%至人民幣30.4億元，創下歷史新高。第3季度是貨運運輸的傳統淡季。7月公共物流園區吞吐量指數同比下降7%，8月同比下降6%，9月同比下降5%。公司推出創新產品並增加網點的數量，表現穩健。截至3Q24年底，網點數量同比增加約4,000個至約32,000個。因此，運輸量穩步增加，公司改善了終端市場服務並降低了相關成本。
A solid pricing mechanism. Revenue per tonne rose 2% YoY in 3Q24, beating our expectation. The ASP of the firm's less-than-truckload (LTL) business rose 2% YoY to Rmb815/t in 3Q24, as the firm optimized its freight weight structure and improved service quality while implementing a solid pricing mechanism (e.g., no price hikes in peak season and no price cuts in slack season). Stable pricing not only helps mitigate seasonal fluctuations in earnings, but also helps franchisees refine operations, thereby improving franchisee retention rate.
穩健的定價機制。每噸收入在3Q24同比增長2%，超出我們的預期。公司的零擔業務平均售價在3Q24同比上漲2%，達到人民幣815/噸，公司通過優化貨物重量結構和提高服務質量，實施穩健的定價機制（例如，淡季不漲價，旺季不降價）。穩定的定價不僅有助於緩解收益的季節性波動，還有助於加盟商精細運營，從而提高加盟商的留存率。
Cost control effective; provisions for bonuses and other expenses increased. In 3Q24, cost dropped by 3% YoY to Rmb687/t, thanks to effective cost control. Costs of trunk line transportation and distribution fell 6% and 17% YoY, and costs of value-added services and freight delivery rose 75% and 6% YoY. G&A expenses rose 41% YoY to Rmb222mn due to increased provisions for employee bonuses, share-based payment expenses and marketing expenses.
成本控制效果顯著；獎金和其他費用準備金增加。在3Q24，由於有效的成本控制，成本同比下降3%至人民幣687/噸。幹線運輸和配送成本同比下降6%和17%，增值服務和貨物送達成本同比分別上漲75%和6%。由於增加了員工獎金準備金、股份支付費用和市場費用，管理和行政開支同比上漲41%至人民幣2.22億元。
We are upbeat on the firm's healthy earnings growth in the medium and long term given its network ecosystem and product mix optimization. In 3Q24, the firm's shipment volume of mini freight (0-70kg) rose 37% YoY. As a result, the average freight weight fell 15% YoY to 81kg. Under the new cargo weight structure, we expect the firm to further optimize its cost structure and achieve healthy earnings growth by promoting the construction of digital and automated transportation systems.
考慮到公司的網絡生態系統和產品組合優化，在中長期內，我們對公司健康盈利增長感到樂觀。在2024年第三季度，公司0-70kg迷你貨物的發運量同比增長37%。因此，平均貨物重量同比下降15%，降至81kg。在新的貨物重量結構下，我們預計公司將通過推動數字化和智能化運輸系統的建設進一步優化成本結構，實現健康的盈利增長。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值。
We keep our 2024 and 2025 earnings forecasts unchanged. The stock is trading at 11.2x 2024e and 8.6x 2025e recurrent P/E. We maintain an OUTPERFORM rating. We roll over to valuation for 2025, and lift our target price 10% to Rmb11.0. Our TP implies 11x 2025e recurrent P/E, offering 39% upside.
我們保持對2024年和2025年的盈利預測不變。該股票目前交易於2024年預期市盈率爲11.2倍和2025年預期市盈率爲8.6倍。我們維持OUTPERFORm評級。我們轉爲2025年的估值，並將目標價上調10%至11.0人民幣。我們的目標價意味着2025年預期市盈率爲11倍，提供39%的上行空間。
Risks
風險
Disappointing economic growth; intensifying price competition; disappointing cost control.
經濟增長令人失望；價格競爭加劇；成本控制令人失望。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
