Is Textron (NYSE:TXT) Using Too Much Debt?
Is Textron (NYSE:TXT) Using Too Much Debt?
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. As with many other companies Textron Inc. (NYSE:TXT) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
傳奇基金經理李錄(得到查理 · 曼格支持)曾經說過:「最大的投資風險並不是價格波動,而是你是否會遭受永久性的資本損失。」 當您評估公司的風險時,考慮公司的資產負債表是很自然的,因爲當一個企業倒閉時,通常會涉及到債務。 與許多其他公司一樣,德事隆公司(紐交所:TXT)利用債務。 但更重要的問題是:這筆債務帶來了多少風險?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
爲什麼債務會帶來風險?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
一般來說,只有當一家公司無法通過增加資本或利用自身現金流輕鬆償還債務時,債務才會真正成爲一個問題。 資本主義的一部分是「創造性毀滅」的過程,在這個過程中,失敗的企業會被銀行無情地清算。 然而,更頻繁(但成本仍高昂)的情況是,一家公司必須以低於市價的價格發行股票,永久性地稀釋股東,以維持其資產負債表。 當然,債務的好處是,它通常代表廉價的資本,特別是當它取代了一家公司具有高回報能力的再投資時的稀釋時。 在考慮一家企業使用多少債務時,第一件事就是看其現金和債務的總額。
How Much Debt Does Textron Carry?
德事隆負債多少?
As you can see below, Textron had US$3.49b of debt, at September 2024, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, it does have US$1.29b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$2.20b.
正如您在下文所見,德事隆在2024年9月時有34.9億美元債務,與前一年相當。 您可以點擊圖表以獲取更詳細信息。 不過,它也有12.9億美元現金來抵消這筆債務,導致淨債務約爲22億美元。
How Healthy Is Textron's Balance Sheet?
德事隆的資產負債表有多健康?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Textron had liabilities of US$4.36b falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$5.14b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had US$1.29b in cash and US$888.0m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$7.32b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
我們可以從最近的資產負債表看到,德事隆短期債務爲43.6億美元,超過一年到期的長期債務爲51.4億美元。相比之下,現金爲12.9億美元,應收賬款爲88800萬美元,均在12個月內到期。因此,其負債總計爲73.2億美元,超過了現金和短期應收賬款的合計。
While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Textron has a huge market capitalization of US$15.8b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.
雖然這看起來似乎很多,但由於德事隆的市值高達158億美元,所以如果需要的話,它可能通過籌集資本來強化資產負債表。但我們絕對要密切關注是否存在債務帶來過多風險的跡象。
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Service Corporation International的債務是其EBITDA的3.5倍,而其EBIT可覆蓋其利息開支的3.7倍。綜合考慮,雖然我們不希望看到債務水平上升,但我們認爲它可以應對當前的槓桿。好消息是,Service Corporation International在過去12個月中將其EBIT提高了2.9%,從而逐漸降低了其相對於收益的債務水平。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中獲得了有關債務的大部分內容。但是,相對於資產負債表,更重要的是未來收益,這將決定Service Corporation International維持健康資產負債表的能力。如果您關注未來,您可以查看此免費報告,其中有分析師的利潤預測。
Textron's net debt is only 1.3 times its EBITDA. And its EBIT covers its interest expense a whopping 18.0 times over. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. Fortunately, Textron grew its EBIT by 7.1% in the last year, making that debt load look even more manageable. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Textron can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
德事隆的淨負債僅爲其息稅折舊攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)的1.3倍。其EBIT利息費用覆蓋高達18.0倍。因此,可以說它受到的債務威脅不比大象受到老鼠的威脅更多。幸運的是,德事隆去年的EBIT增長了7.1%,使得債務負擔看起來更易管理。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表上最能了解債務情況。但最終,業務未來的盈利能力將決定德事隆能否長期強化其資產負債表。因此,如果想知道專業人士的看法,您可能會發現分析師利潤預測的免費報告很有意思。
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. During the last three years, Textron produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 73% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
最後,一家公司只能用冰冷的現金來償還債務,而非會計利潤。因此,我們明顯需要看一下EBIT是否導致相應的自由現金流。在過去三年中,德事隆創造出堅實的自由現金流,相當於其EBIT的73%,符合我們的預期。這筆冰冷的現金意味着它可以在希望時減少債務。
Our View
我們的觀點
Textron's interest cover suggests it can handle its debt as easily as Cristiano Ronaldo could score a goal against an under 14's goalkeeper. But, on a more sombre note, we are a little concerned by its level of total liabilities. All these things considered, it appears that Textron can comfortably handle its current debt levels. Of course, while this leverage can enhance returns on equity, it does bring more risk, so it's worth keeping an eye on this one. We'd be motivated to research the stock further if we found out that Textron insiders have bought shares recently. If you would too, then you're in luck, since today we're sharing our list of reported insider transactions for free.
德事隆的利息覆蓋率表明它可以像Cristiano Ronaldo在14歲以下守門員面前進球一樣輕鬆地處理其債務。不過,更爲嚴肅的是,我們對其總負債水平感到有些擔憂。考慮到所有這些因素,德事隆似乎可以輕鬆處理其當前的債務水平。當然,雖然這種槓桿可以提高股本回報率,但它也帶來更多風險,因此值得關注。如果我們發現德事隆內部人士最近購買了股票,我們會有動力進一步研究這支股票。如果您也是,那麼您很幸運,因爲今天我們將免費分享我們的報告內部交易列表。
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
如果在所有這些之後,您更感興趣的是具有堅實資產負債表的快速增長公司,那麼不要拖延,查看我們的淨現金增長股票列表。
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