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The Mosaic Company Just Missed EPS By 32%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

The Mosaic Company Just Missed EPS By 32%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

美國美盛公司的每股收益剛剛錯過32%:分析師認爲接下來會發生什麼
Simply Wall St ·  11/14 06:19

The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its quarterly results last week. It looks like quite a negative result overall, with both revenues and earnings falling well short of analyst predictions. Revenues of US$2.8b missed by 11%, and statutory earnings per share of US$0.38 fell short of forecasts by 32%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

分析師們可能對美國美盛(紐交所:MOS)過於看好,因爲該公司在上週發佈季度業績時未達到預期。總體來看,這似乎是一個相當負面的結果,營業收入和收益均遠低於分析師的預測。營業收入爲28億美元,低於預期11%,法定每股收益爲0.38美元,低於預測32%。收益是投資者關注的重要時機,因爲他們可以跟蹤公司的表現,查看分析師對明年的預測,並觀察投資者對公司的情緒是否發生了變化。我們收集了最新的法定預測,以查看分析師在這些結果之後是否改變了他們的收益模型。

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NYSE:MOS Earnings and Revenue Growth November 14th 2024
紐交所:MOS 2025年每股收益和營業收入增長 2024年11月14日

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Mosaic's 15 analysts is for revenues of US$11.7b in 2025. This reflects a satisfactory 2.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 77% to US$2.06. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$11.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.09 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

考慮到最新結果,美國美盛15位分析師的共識預測是2025年的營業收入爲117億美元。這反映出與過去12個月相比,營業收入預計改善2.4%。每股收益預計將激增77%至2.06美元。然而,在最新收益之前,分析師們曾預計2025年的營業收入爲119億美元,且每股收益(EPS)爲2.09美元。因此,儘管分析師們更新了他們的估計,但在最新結果之後,對業務的預期並沒有重大變化。

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$32.88. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Mosaic at US$44.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$26.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

因此,得知共識目標價基本保持在32.88美元並不意外。查看分析師估計的區間,評估不同意見與平均值的差異也可能是有益的。目前,最看好的分析師將美國美盛的每股價值定爲44.00美元,而最看淡的則爲26.00美元。這表明估計之間仍然存在一些差異,但分析師似乎並不完全對該股票的前景存在分歧,以至於認爲它可能會成功或失敗。

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Mosaic's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.9% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 12% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 4.6% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Mosaic is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

當然,另一個看待這些預測的方式是將它們放在行業的背景下來考慮。我們想強調的是,美國美盛的營業收入增長預計將放緩,預計到2025年底的年化增長率爲1.9%,遠低於過去五年的12%的歷史年均增長率。將其與行業內其他公司(有分析師預測)的營業收入增長進行比較,整體預計年均營業收入增長爲4.6%。考慮到增長放緩的預測,很明顯美國美盛的增長也預計將慢於其他行業參與者。

The Bottom Line

最重要的事情是分析師增加了它對下一年每股虧損的估計。令人欣慰的是,營收預測未發生重大變化,業務仍有望比整個行業增長更快。共識價格目標穩定在28.50美元,最新估計不足以對價格目標產生影響。

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Mosaic's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$32.88, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

最明顯的結論是,最近業務前景沒有發生重大變化,分析師對每股收益的預測保持不變,與之前的估計一致。幸運的是,分析師們也重新確認了他們的營業收入預期,這表明其跟蹤情況符合預期。儘管我們的數據確實表明,美國美盛的營業收入預計將表現得比整體行業要差。共識目標價保持在32.88美元,最新的估計不足以對他們的目標價格產生影響。

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Mosaic analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

基於此思路,我們認爲該業務的長期前景比明年的營業收入更爲相關。我們有多位美國美盛分析師的估計,預計到2026年,您可以在我們的平台上免費查看。

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Mosaic , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

儘管如此,仍然有必要考慮隨時存在的投資風險。我們已識別出美國美盛的兩個警示信號,理解這些應該是您投資過程的一部分。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的這篇文章是一般性質的。我們僅基於歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,使用公正的方法,我們的文章並非意在提供財務建議。這並不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,並且不考慮您的目標或財務狀況。我們旨在爲您帶來基於基礎數據驅動的長期聚焦分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St對提及的任何股票都沒有持倉。

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


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