Statutory Earnings May Not Be The Best Way To Understand Sarepta Therapeutics' (NASDAQ:SRPT) True Position
Statutory Earnings May Not Be The Best Way To Understand Sarepta Therapeutics' (NASDAQ:SRPT) True Position
Strong earnings weren't enough to please Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:SRPT) shareholders over the last week. Our analysis found several concerning factors in the earnings report beyond the strong statutory profit number.
強勁的收入對於sarepta therapeutics, inc.(納斯達克:SRPT)的股東們在過去一週並不足以讓其滿意。我們的分析發現了幾個令人擔憂的因素,超越了強勁的盈利數字。
Examining Cashflow Against Sarepta Therapeutics' Earnings
審視現金流與sarepta therapeutics的盈利能力
One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.
用於衡量公司如何將其利潤轉化爲自由現金流(FCF)的一個關鍵財務比率是預提帳戶。簡單地說,這個比率從淨利潤中減去FCF,然後將那個數字除以該期間公司的平均營運資產。該比率顯示了一個公司的利潤超過了其FCF的多少。
As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".
因此,負的應計比率對公司來說是積極的,而正的應計比率則是消極的。雖然應計比率高於零並不值得擔心,但當公司有相對較高的應計比率時,我們認爲這值得注意。引用Lewellen和Resutek 2014年的一篇論文:「應計比率較高的公司未來往往利潤較低」。
Over the twelve months to September 2024, Sarepta Therapeutics recorded an accrual ratio of 0.79. Statistically speaking, that's a real negative for future earnings. To wit, the company did not generate one whit of free cashflow in that time. Over the last year it actually had negative free cash flow of US$480m, in contrast to the aforementioned profit of US$121.8m. Coming off the back of negative free cash flow last year, we imagine some shareholders might wonder if its cash burn of US$480m, this year, indicates high risk. Having said that, there is more to the story. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part.
在2024年9月的十二個月內,Sarepta Therapeutics記錄了一個0.79的應計比率。從統計學角度來看,這對未來的收益實際上是一個真正的負面因素。換句話說,公司在那段時間內沒有產生任何自由現金流。在過去一年中,其實際的自由現金流是負48000萬美元,與前述的12180萬美元盈利形成鮮明對比。在去年出現負的自由現金流之後,我們想象一些股東可能會想知道,今年的48000萬美元現金燃燒是否意味着高風險。儘管如此,故事還不止於此。應計比率反映了飛凡項目對盈利的影響,至少在一定程度上。
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
這可能會讓您想知道分析師對未來盈利能力的預測。幸運的是,您可以單擊此處查看基於其估計的未來盈利能力的互動圖表。
The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit
除了稀釋之外,還應該注意的是,萬集科技在過去12個月中因不尋常項目獲得了價值人民幣3.5萬元的利潤。雖然我們希望看到利潤增加,但當這些不尋常項目對利潤做出重大貢獻時,我們會更加謹慎。我們對全球大部分上市公司的數據進行了分析,發現不尋常項目往往是一次性的。這正如我們所期望的那樣,因爲這些提升被描述爲"不尋常"。相對於其利潤而言,萬集科技在2021年12月前的不尋常項目貢獻大。因此,我們可以推斷出,這些不尋常項目正在使其財務利潤顯著增強。
Given the accrual ratio, it's not overly surprising that Sarepta Therapeutics' profit was boosted by unusual items worth US$37m in the last twelve months. While it's always nice to have higher profit, a large contribution from unusual items sometimes dampens our enthusiasm. When we crunched the numbers on thousands of publicly listed companies, we found that a boost from unusual items in a given year is often not repeated the next year. And that's as you'd expect, given these boosts are described as 'unusual'. Sarepta Therapeutics had a rather significant contribution from unusual items relative to its profit to September 2024. All else being equal, this would likely have the effect of making the statutory profit a poor guide to underlying earnings power.
考慮到應計比率,飛凡治療的利潤在過去12個月中受益於價值3700萬美元的飛凡項目並不令人過於驚訝。雖然利潤更多總是好事,但來自飛凡項目的大額貢獻有時會抑制我們的熱情。當我們對成千上萬家上市公司的數據進行分析時,我們發現在某一年來自飛凡項目的提升通常不會在下一年重複。這正如你所預期的那樣,因爲這些提升被描述爲'飛凡'。相對於其2024年9月的利潤,飛凡治療從飛凡項目中獲得了相當顯著的貢獻。其他條件不變的情況下,這可能會導致將法定利潤作爲潛在收益能力的良好指引的影響較差。
Our Take On Sarepta Therapeutics' Profit Performance
我們對飛凡治療的盈利表現的看法
Summing up, Sarepta Therapeutics received a nice boost to profit from unusual items, but could not match its paper profit with free cash flow. For all the reasons mentioned above, we think that, at a glance, Sarepta Therapeutics' statutory profits could be considered to be low quality, because they are likely to give investors an overly positive impression of the company. If you want to do dive deeper into Sarepta Therapeutics, you'd also look into what risks it is currently facing. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Sarepta Therapeutics you should be mindful of and 1 of these is a bit unpleasant.
總的來說,飛凡治療從飛凡項目中獲得了盈利的不錯提升,但無法用自由現金流與其賬面利潤相匹配。考慮到上述所有原因,我們認爲乍一看,飛凡治療的法定利潤可能被認爲是低質量的,因爲它們可能會給投資者留下過於積極的印象。如果您希望深入了解飛凡治療,您還應該研究一下它目前面臨的風險。舉個例子:我們發現了2個關於飛凡治療需要注意的警示信號,其中1個有點不愉快。
In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.
在本文中,我們展示了影響利潤數字的各種因素,並謹慎對待。但是,還有很多其他方法可以了解公司的情況。有些人認爲高回報股本回報率是一家優質企業的好跡象。雖然可能需要您自己進行一些研究,但您可能會發現此免費收藏的公司以高股本回報率爲榮,或此持有重要內部股份的股票清單可能會有所幫助。
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