Ternium (NYSE:TX) Seems To Use Debt Quite Sensibly
Ternium (NYSE:TX) Seems To Use Debt Quite Sensibly
David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that Ternium S.A. (NYSE:TX) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
大衛·伊本說得好,他說:「波動性不是我們關心的風險。我們關心的是避免永久性資本損失。」因此,明智者似乎知道,債務-通常涉及破產-是評估公司風險程度時的一個非常重要因素。我們注意到特爾尼翁鋼鐵(紐交所:TX)的資產負債表上確實有債務。但這筆債務是否會讓股東擔憂呢?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
爲什麼債務會帶來風險?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
通常情況下,當公司無法輕鬆償還債務時,債務才會成爲真正的問題,無論是通過籌集資金還是通過自有現金流。如果情況變得非常糟糕,借款人可能會控制企業。雖然這並不太常見,但我們經常看到負債累累的公司因爲借款人強迫他們以降價的價格籌集資本而永久稀釋股東。當然,債務的好處在於,它往往代表了廉價的資本,特別是當它以能夠以高回報率再投資的公司中代替稀釋時。當我們考慮公司使用債務的情況時,我們首先看現金和債務的總和。
What Is Ternium's Net Debt?
特爾尼翁鋼鐵的淨債務是多少?
The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Ternium had US$2.19b in debt in September 2024; about the same as the year before. But on the other hand it also has US$3.86b in cash, leading to a US$1.67b net cash position.
下面的圖表顯示,特爾尼翁鋼鐵在2024年9月有21.9億美元的債務;與前年持平。但另一方面,它也擁有38.6億美元的現金,導致淨現金餘額達到16.7億美元。
How Healthy Is Ternium's Balance Sheet?
特爾尼翁鋼鐵的資產負債表有多健康?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Ternium had liabilities of US$4.02b falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$3.59b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$3.86b as well as receivables valued at US$2.84b due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$919.0m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
從最近的資產負債表中可以看出,特爾尼翁有着40.2億美元的短期到期負債,以及35.9億美元的長期到期負債。 抵消這些義務的是,它持有38.6億美元的現金和28.4億美元的應收賬款,其中12個月內到期。 因此,其負債總額比現金和短期應收賬款合計高出91900萬美元。
Of course, Ternium has a market capitalization of US$6.96b, so these liabilities are probably manageable. However, we do think it is worth keeping an eye on its balance sheet strength, as it may change over time. While it does have liabilities worth noting, Ternium also has more cash than debt, so we're pretty confident it can manage its debt safely.
當然,特爾尼翁的市值爲69.6億美元,因此這些負債可能是可控的。 但是,我們認爲值得密切關注其資產負債表的實力,因爲它可能隨着時間的推移而變化。 雖然它確實有需要注意的負債,但特爾尼翁擁有的現金比債務多,因此我們非常有信心它可以安全管理債務。
In addition to that, we're happy to report that Ternium has boosted its EBIT by 99%, thus reducing the spectre of future debt repayments. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Ternium's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
此外,我們很高興地報告,特爾尼翁通過提高EBIt增長了99%,從而減少了未來債務償還的壓力。 在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是顯而易見的起點。 但最終決定特爾尼翁能否保持健康資產負債表的是未來的收入,而不是其他因素。 因此,如果您想了解專業人士的看法,您可能會發現對分析師盈利預測的這份免費報告很有趣。
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. Ternium may have net cash on the balance sheet, but it is still interesting to look at how well the business converts its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, because that will influence both its need for, and its capacity to manage debt. Looking at the most recent three years, Ternium recorded free cash flow of 47% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
最後,一家企業需要自由現金流來償還債務;會計利潤並不能解決問題。 特爾尼翁可能在資產負債表上有淨現金,但查看企業將其利潤(EBIT)轉化爲自由現金流的能力如何,仍然很有趣,因爲這將影響其管理債務的需求和能力。 查看最近三年,特爾尼翁的自由現金流佔其EBIt的47%,這比我們預期的要弱。 在償還債務方面,這並不理想。
Summing Up
總之
Although Ternium's balance sheet isn't particularly strong, due to the total liabilities, it is clearly positive to see that it has net cash of US$1.67b. And it impressed us with its EBIT growth of 99% over the last year. So we don't think Ternium's use of debt is risky. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Ternium (1 is potentially serious) you should be aware of.
儘管特爾尼翁鋼鐵的資產負債表並不特別強勁,由於總負債,看到其淨現金爲美國$16.7億,這顯然是個積極的跡象。而且,在過去一年中,特爾尼翁鋼鐵的EBIT增長了99%,給我們留下了深刻印象。所以我們不認爲特爾尼翁鋼鐵的債務使用是有風險的。毫無疑問,從資產負債表上我們最能了解債務。然而,並非所有的投資風險都存在於資產負債表中 - 遠非如此。例如,我們已經發現了特爾尼翁鋼鐵的3個警告信號(其中1個可能很嚴重),您應該注意。
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
每天結束時,通常更好地關注那些沒有淨債務的公司。您可以查看我們特別名單上的這些公司(所有這些公司都有盈利增長記錄)。這是免費的。
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