CIRRUS AIRCRAFT(02507.HK):PERSONAL AVIATION PIONEER FLYING HIGH
CIRRUS AIRCRAFT(02507.HK):PERSONAL AVIATION PIONEER FLYING HIGH
Thriving industry propelled by HNWIs and new infrastructure. According to Knight Frank, over 2023-2027, the population of global high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs), who are potential customers of personal aircraft, could grow at a CAGR of 9.4%. Infrastructure-wise, airports and student pilots are increasing steadily. For example, 35,888 student pilot certificates were added in the US during 2023, according to the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).Investment positives
投資的積極因素
We initiate coverage on Cirrus Aircraft with an OUTPERFORM rating and a target price of HK$32.00.
我們對西銳飛機啓動覆蓋評級，並設定目標價爲HK$32.00。
Why an OUTPERFORM rating?
爲什麼是OUTPERFORm評級？
Thriving industry propelled by HNWIs and new infrastructure. According to Knight Frank, over 2023-2027, the population of global high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs), who are potential customers of personal aircraft, could grow at a CAGR of 9.4%. Infrastructure-wise, airports and student pilots are increasing steadily. For example, 35,888 student pilot certificates were added in the US during 2023, according to the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).
由HWRIs和新基礎設施推動的蓬勃發展行業。根據萊坊的數據，2023年至2027年間，全球高淨值個人（HNWIs）的數量預計以9.4%的複合年增長率增長，他們是私人飛機的潛在客戶。基礎設施方面，機場和學員飛行員數量穩步增長。例如，根據美國聯邦航空管理局（FAA）的數據，2023年美國增加了35,888張學員飛行員證書。
Industry leader with high barriers to entry. In 2023, Cirrus's market share reached 32.0% in the global personal aviation market. As a market leader, Cirrus identified potential entrants in advance as the certification of new aircraft can take five to nine years, according to Frost & Sullivan. Cirrus enhances safety with its proprietary Cirrus Airframe Parachute System (CAPS) and Safe Return safety systems, and its total accident rate per 100,000 flight hours is three times lower than the average in the general aviation industry, per Frost & Sullivan.
作爲行業領袖，具有較高的准入壁壘。2023年，西銳飛機在全球私人航空市場的市場份額達到了32.0％。作爲市場領導者，西銳提前識別了潛在的新進入者，因爲新飛機的認證可能需要五至九年，根據Frost＆Sullivan的數據。西銳通過其專有的西銳機身降落傘系統（CAPS）和安全返航系統增強安全性，其每10萬飛行小時的總事故率比通用航空行業平均水平低三倍，根據Frost＆Sullivan的數據。
Ecosystem provides operating leverage. Cirrus differentiates itself from competitors by offering an ecosystem encompassing production, sales, and after-sales service, which creates potential operating leverage. Cirrus has a first-mover advantage in the considerable investment and lengthy process required for FAA-certified manufacturing.
生態系統提供經營槓桿。西銳通過提供涵蓋生產、銷售和售後服務的生態系統來與競爭對手區分開來，這創造了潛在的經營槓桿。西銳在爲FAA認證的製造過程中投入了大量資金和時間，擁有先發優勢。
How do we differ from the market? We believe the market has not fully priced in Cirrus's competitive advantages and operating leverage potential.
我們與市場有何不同？我們相信市場尚未充分反映西銳的競爭優勢和經營槓桿潛力。
Potential catalysts: 2024 annual results could beat estimates due to larger-than-expected operating leverage; potential capacity expansion.
潛在催化劑：2024年的年度業績可能會超出預期，因爲經營槓桿大於預期；潛在的產能擴展。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值。
Our EPS forecast is US$0.29 in 2024 and US$0.32 in 2025, a CAGR of 10.2% 2022-2025 net profit-wise. Our adjusted EBITDA forecast is US$184mn in 2024 and US$201mn in 2025 based on our assumption of 12% and 11% revenue growth in 2024 and 2025, with potential operating leverage. We initiate coverage on Cirrus Aircraft with OUTPERFORM rating and a target price of HK$32.00, implying 5.9x 2024e EV/adjusted EBITDA (14x 2024e P/E) and 5.4x 2025e EV/adjusted EBITDA (13x 2025e P/E). The stock is trading at 2.6x 2024e EV/EBITDA and 2.1x 2025e EV/EBITDA. Our TP offers 64.9% upside.
我們預測2024年每股收益爲0.29美元，2025年爲0.32美元，2022-2025年淨利潤方面的複合年增長率爲10.2%。根據我們對2024年和2025年營收增長12%和11%的假設，結合潛在的運營槓桿，我們調整後的EBITDA預測2024年爲1.84億美元，2025年爲2.01億美元。我們對西銳飛機進行覆蓋，並給予OUTPERFORM評級，目標價爲32.00港元，暗示2024年預期市值/調整後的EBITDA爲5.9倍(2024年預期市盈率爲14倍)，2025年預期市值/調整後的EBITDA爲5.4倍(2025年預期市盈率爲13倍)。該股票的2024年預期市值/EBITDA爲2.6倍，2025年預期市值/EBITDA爲2.1倍。我們的目標價提供64.9%的上漲空間。
Risks
風險
Regulatory risks; macroeconomic uncertainty; production bottleneck and supply constraints; change in consumer preferences; adverse publicity; geopolitical tensions.
監管風險；宏觀經濟不確定性；生產瓶頸和供應限制；消費者偏好變化；不利宣發；地緣政治緊張局勢。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
