Iceberg Research Posts On X "We Are Short Gevo Inc ($GEVO). The Change in the US Administration Is the Obvious Threat but Problems Run Deeper, in Particular the Competitiveness of Technology. A Lot of Room to Fall Further."
Iceberg Research Posts On X "We Are Short Gevo Inc ($GEVO). The Change in the US Administration Is the Obvious Threat but Problems Run Deeper, in Particular the Competitiveness of Technology. A Lot of Room to Fall Further."
Sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), whether HEFA or ATJ, are structurally more expensive than traditional jet fuel, and rely heavily on tax credits e.g. IRA and RFS. Generous IRA credits are now threatened and in any case, they expire in 2027.We are short Gevo Inc ($GEVO). The change in the US administration is the obvious threat but problems run deeper, in particular the competitiveness of technology. A lot of room to fall further.
我們對gevo inc（$GEVO）開空。美國政府換屆是明顯的威脅，但問題更深層，特別是科技的競爭力。還有很大的下跌空間。
In its last days, the Biden-driven Department of Energy has granted conditional approval for a $1.46b loan to Gevo, aimed at building a plant to produce alcohol-to-jet ("ATJ") aviation fuel.
拜登主導的能源部在其最後幾天批准了對gevo公司的14.6億美元貸款，旨在建設一個生產酒精轉換爲噴氣式航空燃料（"ATJ"）的工廠。
Under a Trump-led administration, who called the IRA a "Green New Scam", Gevo's project is one of the most vulnerable DOE conditional approvals. The massive loan is subject to multiple conditions before approval, placing control in the hands of the DOE's new leadership.
在特朗普領導的政府下，稱IRA爲"綠色新騙局"，gevo公司的項目是美國能源部條件批准中最脆弱的之一。這筆巨額貸款在獲批前需滿足多個條件，將控制權交給美國能源部的新領導層。
Sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), whether HEFA or ATJ, are structurally more expensive than traditional jet fuel, and rely heavily on tax credits e.g. IRA and RFS. Generous IRA credits are now threatened and in any case, they expire in 2027.
可持續航空燃料（SAF），無論是HEFA還是ATJ，結構上比傳統噴氣式燃料更昂貴，且嚴重依賴稅收抵免，例如IRA和RFS。慷慨的IRA抵免現在受到威脅，而且無論如何，它們將於2027年到期。
ATJ (Gevo's type) is also more expensive than HEFA, the most common type of SAF (see above). Bulls argue HEFA will face future feedstock supply constraints (e.g. used oil), hence the need for ATJ.
ATJ（gevo公司的類型）比HEFA更昂貴，後者是最常見的SAF類型（見上文）。多頭認爲HEFA將面臨未來飼料原料供應限制（例如，廢油），因此需要ATJ。
The EU has mandated 6% SAF use by 2030, but even when the rule is implemented, current and incoming HEFA production will more than cover demand.
歐盟已下令要在2030年前使用6%的SAF，但即使實施該規定，目前和即將到來的HEFA生產將完全滿足需求。
In the US, the DOE believes that HEFA won't cover SAF needs in 2030. But the DOE has assumed SAF would account for 12% (3b gal) of all fuel usage (25b gal) even though SAF adoption will be voluntary in the US, while Europe's 6% is mandatory.
美國能源部認爲，到2030年，HEFA無法滿足SAF需求。但美國能源部假定SAF將佔所有燃料使用量（250億加侖）的12%（30億加侖），即使在美國，SAF的採用也將是自願的，而歐洲的6%卻是強制性的。
Hard to believe that US airlines would voluntarily use twice more SAF than their European peers while airline margins are notoriously thin. Assuming 6% usage, in line with the EU in 2030, we found that expected US HEFA capacity (1.7b) will cover SAF needs (1.5b gal).
難以相信美國航空公司會自願使用比歐洲同行多一倍的SAF，而航空公司利潤薄弱。假設使用率爲6%，符合歐盟在2030年的標準，我們發現預期的美國HEFA產能（17億）將滿足SAF需求（15億加侖）。
Worse, the electrification of vehicles will reduce the usage of renewable diesel, which shares the same feedstock as HEFA. This would release HEFA supply in favour of SAF. Another issue is that the EU bans crop-based biofuels like corn. Corn is Gevo's primary feedstock.
更糟糕的是，電動汽車的電氣化將減少可再生柴油的使用，後者與HEFA共享相同的原料。這將釋放HEFA供應，從而支持SAF。另一個問題是歐盟禁止像玉米這樣的基於作物的生物燃料。玉米是gevo inc的主要原料。
The track record of operators is crucial for a project as large as Gevo's ATJ plant. Gevo is known to have a history of under-delivering on promises. In 2019 for example, management unveiled plans to achieve $63-$77m of revenue in 2021. Actual revenue for the year was $0.5m.
運營商的業績記錄對於像gevo inc的ATJ工廠這樣的大型項目至關重要。衆所周知，gevo inc在兌現承諾方面存在着履約不足的歷史。例如，在2019年，管理層公佈了2021年實現6300萬至7700萬美元營業收入的計劃。而當年實際營業收入爲50萬美元。
Since 2013, the company has burnt through $678m of cash, and raised $887m in common equity. Share count has grown about 16x since 2019. Still, top managers received very attractive compensation packages despite this poor performance.
自2013年以來，該公司已經耗費了67800萬美元現金，並通過普通股權籌集了88700萬美元。自2019年以來，股份增長約16倍。儘管業績不佳，但高級管理人員依然獲得了非常有吸引力的薪酬計劃。
We believe the shifting political landscape and the challenging economics of ATJ make Gevo's renewable project highly speculative and prone to failure.
我們認爲，政治格局的變化和ATJ項目的挑戰性經濟環境使gevo inc的可再生能源項目極具投機性，並容易失敗。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
