BNM Foreign Currency Reserves Saw Its Steepest Drop In 13 Months
BNM Foreign Currency Reserves Saw Its Steepest Drop In 13 Months
In ringgit terms, BNM's reserves continued its decline, dropping to RM482.8b. USDMYR monthly average (4.30; Sep: 4.27): The ringgit gave up some of its prior gains in October, as the Fed pushed back against calls for swift rate cuts, reaffirming a cautious outlook. The USD gained further momentum as market expectations aligned with the Fed's dot plot projections, bolstered by robust US jobs data from September.
Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) international reserves reverted to a downtrend in October after five consecutive months of increase, falling by USD2.1b or – 1.8% MoM, reaching USD117.6b as of 30 October 2024.
馬來西亞銀行（BNM）的國際儲備在連續五個月增長後在十月回落，下降了21億美元，環比下降1.8%，截至2024年10月30日達到1176億美元。
Reserve adequacy indicators remained stable, with import coverage held steady at 4.8 months and shortterm external debt coverage remained at 0.9 time. The decline Kenanga notes was primarily driven by a drop in foreign currency reserves
儲備充足性指標保持穩定，進口覆蓋率保持在4.8個月，短期外債覆蓋率仍然爲0.9倍。Kenanga指出下降主要受外匯儲備下降的影響
Foreign currency reserves saw its steepest drop in 13 months, partly due to significant capital outflows from the debt market (over RM11.0b), amid rising market uncertainty and potentially lower export earnings repatriation. Notably, BNM's net FX reserves rose for the fifth straight month to USD65.3b in September (Aug: USD61.2b), though this trend may reverse in October. Meanwhile, special drawing rights, gold, other reserve assets and IMF reserve positions remained relatively unchanged
外匯儲備在13個月中出現了最大的下降，部分原因是由於債務市場（超過110億林吉特）的大規模資本外流，加劇了市場的不確定性，可能導致出口收入歸還降低。值得注意的是，馬來西亞央行的淨外匯儲備在9月上漲到653億美元（8月：612億美元），儘管這一趨勢可能在10月逆轉。與此同時，特別提款權、黃金、其他儲備資產和IMF儲備頭寸保持相對穩定
In ringgit terms, BNM's reserves continued its decline, dropping to RM482.8b. USDMYR monthly average (4.30; Sep: 4.27): The ringgit gave up some of its prior gains in October, as the Fed pushed back against calls for swift rate cuts, reaffirming a cautious outlook. The USD gained further momentum as market expectations aligned with the Fed's dot plot projections, bolstered by robust US jobs data from September.
以馬來西亞令吉計算，馬來西亞央行的儲備繼續下降，降至4828億林吉特。 USDMYR每月平均（4.30；9月：4.27）：在10月，由於聯儲局推遲了迅速減息的呼籲，重申了謹慎的展望，馬幣放棄了部分先前的漲幅。由於市場預期與聯儲局的點陣圖預測一致，9月份堅實的美國就業數據進一步提振了美元的勢頭
Safe-haven demand spiked amid escalating Middle East tensions, while repositioning in the final week of October — with markets increasingly pricing in a Trump win — lifted both the USD index (DXY) and US Treasury (UST) yields. Consequently, the 10-year MGS-UST yield spread widened to an average of -27.9 bps in October (Sep: -0.5 bps). Regional currencies: A stronger DXY in October (average: 103.3; Sep: 101.0) exerted broad depreciation pressure across ASEAN-5 currencies. The PHP (-2.5%), led declines, followed by the IDR (-1.7%), SGD (-1.1%), MYR (- 0.8%), and THB (-0.3%).
在中東緊張局勢升級的背景下，避險需求激增，而在10月最後一週的重新定位中，隨着市場越來越多地定價爲特朗普獲勝，美元指數（DXY）和美國國債（UST）收益率均上漲。因此，10年期馬來西亞政府債券收益率與美國政府債券收益率之差在10月份擴大至平均-27.9個點子（9月：-0.5個點子）。區域貨幣：10月份美元指數（平均：103.3；9月：101.0）走強，對東盟5國貨幣施加了廣泛的貶值壓力。菲律賓披索（-2.5%）領跌，隨後是印尼盾（-1.7%）、新加坡元（-1.1%）、馬來西亞林吉特（-0.8%）和泰銖（-0.3%）
While Trump's recent election victory injects renewed uncertainty and potential volatility into the global economy, Kenanga said it expects BNM to keep the policy rate at 3.00% through 2025, balancing economic growth with inflation risk.
儘管特朗普最近的競選勝利給全球經濟注入了新的不確定性和潛在波動，Kenanga表示預計BNm將通過2025年將政策利率保持在3.00%，在經濟增長和通脹風險之間取得平衡
In light of the US election outcome, the house has revised its end-2024 ringgit forecast to 4.57/USD from 4.25/USD. With UST yields expected to remain above 4.00% in the near term due to expectations of a higher Federal funds rate, MY-US unfavourable yield differential may add pressure to the ringgit.
鑑於美國大選結果，該機構已將其2024年年底林吉特兌美元的預測從4.25美元/林吉特上調至4.57美元/林吉特。由於預計美國國債收益率在短期內將保持在4.00%以上，導致市場預期聯邦資金利率上升，馬來西亞-美國不利的收益差可能會給林吉特帶來壓力。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
