Is Grocery Outlet Holding (NASDAQ:GO) Using Too Much Debt?
Is Grocery Outlet Holding (NASDAQ:GO) Using Too Much Debt?
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (NASDAQ:GO) does use debt in its business. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
霍華德·馬克斯說得很好,他說,與其擔心股價波動,'我擔心的是永久性損失的可能性...我認識的每個實際投資者都擔心這一點。' 當我們考慮一家公司有多大風險時,我們總是喜歡看它的債務使用情況,因爲債務過載可能導致破產。 我們可以看到grocery outlet控股有限公司(納斯達克:GO)的確在業務中使用了債務。 但真正的問題是這筆債務是否使公司變得高風險。
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
爲什麼債務會帶來風險?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
當企業無法通過自由現金流或以有吸引力的價格籌集資本來輕鬆履行這些義務時,債務和其他負債變得有風險。如果事情變得非常糟糕,放貸人可以控制企業。然而,更頻繁的情況是,公司必須以低廉的價格發行股票,永久性地稀釋股東,以維持其資產負債表。通過取代稀釋,債務可以成爲需要以高回報率投資增長的企業非常好的工具。在考慮企業使用多少債務時,首先要做的是看看其現金和債務合在一起的情況。
What Is Grocery Outlet Holding's Debt?
grocery outlet控股的債務是多少?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2024 Grocery Outlet Holding had debt of US$429.3m, up from US$294.5m in one year. However, it does have US$68.7m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$360.6m.
以下圖片展示了2024年9月grocery outlet控股的債務爲42930萬美元,比一年前的29450萬美元增加。 然而,它確實有6870萬美元的現金來抵消這筆債務,導致淨債務約爲36060萬美元。
How Strong Is Grocery Outlet Holding's Balance Sheet?
grocery outlet控股的資產負債表有多強?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Grocery Outlet Holding had liabilities of US$352.3m due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$1.56b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had US$68.7m in cash and US$17.8m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$1.83b.
根據最近披露的資產負債表顯示,grocery outlet控股在未來12個月內有35230萬元美元的負債,以及超過12個月到期的15.6億美元負債。與此相抵,它擁有870 萬元現金和1780萬元應在未來12個月內收到的應收款項。因此,其負債超過現金和(短期)應收賬款的總和達18.3億美元。
Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's market capitalization of US$1.43b, we think shareholders really should watch Grocery Outlet Holding's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. In the scenario where the company had to clean up its balance sheet quickly, it seems likely shareholders would suffer extensive dilution.
考慮到這個赤字實際上高於公司14.3億美元的市值,我們認爲股東們確實應該像父母看着孩子第一次騎自行車一樣,關注grocery outlet控股的債務水平。在公司需要迅速清理其資產負債表的情況下,股東們很可能遭受嚴重稀釋。
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
我們使用兩個主要比率來了解債務相對於收入的水平。首先是淨債務除以利息、稅項、折舊和攤銷前利潤(EBITDA),而第二個是其稅前利潤(EBIT)可以覆蓋利息支出的倍數(或簡稱爲利息覆蓋率)。 這種方法的優勢在於我們既考慮了債務的絕對量(淨債務與EBITDA)又考慮了與該債務相關的實際利息支出(利息覆蓋比)。
Grocery Outlet Holding's net debt is sitting at a very reasonable 1.9 times its EBITDA, while its EBIT covered its interest expense just 5.2 times last year. In large part that's due to the company's significant depreciation and amortisation charges, which arguably mean its EBITDA is a very generous measure of earnings, and its debt may be more of a burden than it first appears. Importantly, Grocery Outlet Holding's EBIT fell a jaw-dropping 34% in the last twelve months. If that earnings trend continues then paying off its debt will be about as easy as herding cats on to a roller coaster. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Grocery Outlet Holding's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
grocery outlet控股的淨負債是其EBITDA的1.9倍,而去年其EBIt對其利息支出的覆蓋率僅爲5.2倍。在很大程度上,這是由於公司巨額的折舊和攤銷費用,這可能意味着其EBITDA是一種非常慷慨的收益衡量標準,而其債務可能比最初看起來更加沉重。值得注意的是,grocery outlet控股的EBIt在過去12個月內驚人下降了34%。如果這種收益趨勢繼續下去,那麼償還債務將像把貓趕上過山車一樣困難。資產負債表顯然是你分析債務時要重點關注的領域。但更重要的是未來收入,將決定grocery outlet控股維持健康資產負債表能力的情況。因此,如果你想了解專業人士的看法,你可能會發現分析師利潤預測的免費報告很有趣。
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, Grocery Outlet Holding recorded free cash flow of 22% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
最後,業務需要自由現金流來償還債務;會計利潤並不足夠。因此,我們明顯需要看看EBIt是否導致相應的自由現金流。回顧最近三年,Grocery Outlet Holding記錄的自由現金流佔其EBIt的比例爲22%,低於我們的預期。這在償還債務時並不理想。
Our View
我們的觀點
To be frank both Grocery Outlet Holding's level of total liabilities and its track record of (not) growing its EBIT make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. Having said that, its ability handle its debt, based on its EBITDA, isn't such a worry. We're quite clear that we consider Grocery Outlet Holding to be really rather risky, as a result of its balance sheet health. So we're almost as wary of this stock as a hungry kitten is about falling into its owner's fish pond: once bitten, twice shy, as they say. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. We've identified 1 warning sign with Grocery Outlet Holding , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
坦白說,無論是Grocery Outlet Holding的總負債水平,還是其EBIt增長(不)使我們對其債務水平感到不安。話雖如此,根據EBITDA來看,它處理債務的能力並不太令人擔憂。我們非常明確地認爲,鑑於其資產負債表的狀況,我們認爲Grocery Outlet Holding具有相當大的風險。因此,我們對這支股票幾乎像飢餓的小貓對主人的魚塘一樣謹慎:一朝被蛇咬,十年怕井繩,俗話說得好。顯然,資產負債表是分析債務時需要關注的領域。然而,並不是所有的投資風險都存在於資產負債表中 - 遠非如此。我們已經發現了Grocery Outlet Holding的1個警示信號,了解它們應該是您投資過程的一部分。
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
每天結束時,通常更好地關注那些沒有淨債務的公司。您可以查看我們特別名單上的這些公司(所有這些公司都有盈利增長記錄)。這是免費的。
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譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。