Progressive To Gain From Improved Loss Ratio And Stronger Outlook: Analyst Boosts Estimates
Progressive To Gain From Improved Loss Ratio And Stronger Outlook: Analyst Boosts Estimates
However, the analyst raised estimate for the consolidated expense ratio by 20-30bps in 2025/2026 due to expectations of higher advertising spending.Goldman Sachs analyst Robert Cox reiterated the Buy rating on Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) with a price objective of $294.
高盛分析師Robert Cox重申了對Progressive Corporation（紐交所：PGR）的買入評級，目標價爲294美元。
The analyst increased the company's 2025/2026 EPS estimate by 4%, mainly driven by a more favorable outlook for the personal lines loss ratio.
分析師將公司2025/2026年的每股收益估值提高了4％，主要是因爲個人線路損失率前景更有利。
Cox suggests that their view of a modest improvement in the expense ratio (excluding advertising) over the next two years remains largely unchanged, projecting a 35bps increase.
Cox建議他們對接下來兩年內費用率（不包括廣告費）的適度改善觀點基本保持不變，預計費用率將增加35個點子。
However, the analyst raised estimate for the consolidated expense ratio by 20-30bps in 2025/2026 due to expectations of higher advertising spending.
然而，由於對更高廣告支出的預期，該分析師將2025/2026年度的綜合費用率估值提高了20-30個點子。
Additionally, Cox revised the net interest income (NII) estimates upwards, reflecting the updated forward curve for fixed income yields.
此外，考克斯將淨利息收入（NII）的預期上調，反映了固定收益收益的更新前瞻曲線。
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As a result, the analyst's 2025/2026 EPS estimates increase by 5%/4%, remaining approximately 7% above consensus estimates.
因此，分析師的2025/2026年每股收益預計增加了5％/4％，仍然比共識預測高約7％。
The analyst notes that, in their updated loss trend analysis, he is maintaining a severity trend of approximately 4% for 2025. This forecast takes into account a 6% increase in bodily injury severity and a 2% rise in physical damage severity, driven by a shift from depreciation to moderate inflation in used car prices, along with more normalized inflation in repair costs.
分析師指出，在他們更新的損失趨勢分析中，他維持了2025年約4％的嚴重程度趨勢。此預測考慮到了身體損傷嚴重程度增加了6％，車體損傷嚴重程度增加了2％，原因是從折舊轉向二手車價格的適度通膨以及修理成本的更正常通膨。
The analyst states that he is raising their estimates for personal auto policy-in-force (PIF) growth by 100bps in 2025 and 20bps in 2026. Additionally, Cox increased the estimate for the consolidated expense ratio by 20-30bps.
分析師表示，他們預計2025年個人汽車保單保額(PIF)的增長率將提高100個點子，2026年將提高20個點子。此外，科克斯將合併費用比率的估計值提高了20-30個點子。
This adjustment reflects the continued expectation that advertising efficiency in 2025/2026 will remain, on average, more than 30% below the pre-pandemic (2017-2019) levels.
這一調整反映了對廣告效率在2025/2026年將繼續保持的期望，平均保持在疫情前(2017-2019年)水平以下30%以上。
Price Action: PGR shares are trading higher by 2.76% to $254.93 at last check Wednesday.
價格走勢：PGR股票的交易價格較上次週三的檢查上漲了2.76%，至254.93美元。
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譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
