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Is Dutch Bros (NYSE:BROS) A Risky Investment?

Is Dutch Bros (NYSE:BROS) A Risky Investment?

荷蘭兄弟(紐交所:BROS)是一個風險投資嗎?
Simply Wall St ·  11/06 22:49

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that Dutch Bros Inc. (NYSE:BROS) does use debt in its business. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

傳奇基金經理李錄(得到查理·芒格支持)曾經說過,「最大的投資風險不是價格波動,而是是否會遭受永久性的資本損失。」當我們考慮一家公司有多大風險時,我們總是喜歡看一下它的債務使用情況,因爲債務過重可能導致滅頂之災。我們可以看到荷蘭兄弟公司(紐交所:BROS)在其業務中確實使用了債務。但真正的問題是,這些債務是否使公司變得風險更大。

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

爲什麼債務會帶來風險?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

債務是幫助企業增長的工具,但如果企業無法償還貸款,則存在於貸款人的掌控之下。 如果情況變得非常糟糕,貸款人可以接管企業。 然而,一種更頻繁(但仍然昂貴)的情況是,一個公司必須以低於市價的價格發行股票,永久稀釋股東利益,以支持其資產負債表。 當然,很多公司使用債務來資助增長,沒有任何負面後果。 當我們考慮一個公司的債務使用情況時,我們首先關注現金和債務總額。

How Much Debt Does Dutch Bros Carry?

荷蘭兄弟承擔了多少債務?

As you can see below, Dutch Bros had US$240.1m of debt at June 2024, down from US$277.5m a year prior. But it also has US$262.4m in cash to offset that, meaning it has US$22.3m net cash.

正如您在下面所看到的,荷蘭兄弟在2024年6月的債務爲24010萬美元,比去年同期的27750萬美元減少。但它也有26240萬美元的現金來抵消,意味着它有2230萬美元的淨現金。

big
NYSE:BROS Debt to Equity History November 6th 2024
紐交所:BROS債務資本比歷史數據 2024年11月6日

How Strong Is Dutch Bros' Balance Sheet?

荷蘭兄弟的資產負債表有多堅實?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Dutch Bros had liabilities of US$153.1m due within 12 months and liabilities of US$1.49b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had US$262.4m in cash and US$12.3m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$1.37b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

放大最新的資產負債表數據,我們可以看到荷蘭兄弟有15310萬美元的短期負債和14.9億美元的超過12個月到期的負債。與此相抵消,它有26240萬美元的現金和1230萬美元的應收款項在12個月內到期。所以它的負債總額比其現金和短期應收款項合計多了13.7億美元。

Dutch Bros has a market capitalization of US$5.85b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk. While it does have liabilities worth noting, Dutch Bros also has more cash than debt, so we're pretty confident it can manage its debt safely.

荷蘭兄弟的市值爲58.5億美元,因此如果有需要,它很有可能籌集資金來改善其資產負債表。但我們絕對需要警惕其債務帶來的風險過大。雖然它確實有值得注意的負債,但荷蘭兄弟也比債務擁有更多的現金,因此我們非常有信心它可以安全管理其債務。

Notably, Dutch Bros's EBIT launched higher than Elon Musk, gaining a whopping 196% on last year. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Dutch Bros can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

值得注意的是,荷蘭兄弟的EBIt增長超過了埃隆·馬斯克,去年增長了驚人的196%。在分析債務時,資產負債表顯然是需要重點關注的領域。但最終業務未來的盈利能力將決定荷蘭兄弟是否可以隨着時間加強其資產負債表。因此,如果您想了解專業人士的看法,您可能會發現分析師利潤預測的免費報告很有趣。

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. Dutch Bros may have net cash on the balance sheet, but it is still interesting to look at how well the business converts its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, because that will influence both its need for, and its capacity to manage debt. Over the last two years, Dutch Bros saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.

最後,一個業務需要自由現金流來償還債務;會計利潤並不夠。荷蘭兄弟可能在資產負債表上有淨現金,但看看企業如何將其息稅前利潤(EBIT)轉化爲自由現金流,這一點仍然很有趣,因爲這將影響其對債務的需求和管理能力。過去兩年中,荷蘭兄弟看到了大量負的自由現金流。雖然投資者無疑期待這種情況很快會逆轉,但顯然這意味着其債務使用更具風險。

Summing Up

總之

Although Dutch Bros's balance sheet isn't particularly strong, due to the total liabilities, it is clearly positive to see that it has net cash of US$22.3m. And we liked the look of last year's 196% year-on-year EBIT growth. So we don't have any problem with Dutch Bros's use of debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Dutch Bros that you should be aware of before investing here.

儘管Dutch Bros的資產負債表並不是特別強大,由於總負債,但明顯是積極的看到它有2230萬美元的淨現金。而且我們喜歡去年196%的年度EBIt增長。所以,我們對Dutch Bros使用債務沒有任何問題。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表上了解到大部分關於債務的內容。然而,並非所有的投資風險都存在於資產負債表中 - 離這還遠。例如,我們發現了關於Dutch Bros的1個警示標誌,你在投資之前應該注意。

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

每天結束時,通常更好地關注那些沒有淨債務的公司。您可以查看我們特別名單上的這些公司(所有這些公司都有盈利增長記錄)。這是免費的。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的這篇文章是一般性質的。我們僅基於歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,使用公正的方法,我們的文章並非意在提供財務建議。這並不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,並且不考慮您的目標或財務狀況。我們旨在爲您帶來基於基礎數據驅動的長期聚焦分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St對提及的任何股票都沒有持倉。

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


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