Why JAKKS Pacific's (NASDAQ:JAKK) Soft Earnings Are Just The Beginning Of Its Problems
Why JAKKS Pacific's (NASDAQ:JAKK) Soft Earnings Are Just The Beginning Of Its Problems
The market shrugged off JAKKS Pacific, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:JAKK) weak earnings report. Despite the market responding positively, we think that there are several concerning factors that investors should be aware of.
市場對傑克仕太平洋公司(NASDAQ:JAKK)的疲弱盈利報告不以爲然。儘管市場的反應積極,但我們認爲投資者應該注意到一些令人擔憂的因素。
A Closer Look At JAKKS Pacific's Earnings
深入了解傑克仕太平洋的盈利情況
As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
正如財務迷們已經知道的那樣,從現金流量的應計比率是一個判斷公司自由現金流(FCF)與盈利匹配情況的關鍵指標。應計比率是將某一段時間內的FCF從利潤中減去,然後將結果除以公司在那段時間內的平均營運資產。你可以將從現金流量中計算的應計比率看作「非FCF盈利比例」。
That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.
這意味着負的應計比率是一件好事,因爲它表明公司帶來的自由現金流比其利潤所顯示的更多。雖然擁有正的應計比率並不是問題,表明一定程度的非現金利潤,但高應計比率可能是一件壞事,因爲這表明紙面利潤不能得到現金流支持。這是因爲一些學術研究表明,高應計比率往往導致較低的利潤或利潤增長率。
JAKKS Pacific has an accrual ratio of 0.48 for the year to September 2024. Statistically speaking, that's a real negative for future earnings. And indeed, during the period the company didn't produce any free cash flow whatsoever. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of US$47m despite its profit of US$33.1m, mentioned above. It's worth noting that JAKKS Pacific generated positive FCF of US$90m a year ago, so at least they've done it in the past. Unfortunately for shareholders, the company has also been issuing new shares, diluting their share of future earnings. One positive for JAKKS Pacific shareholders is that it's accrual ratio was significantly better last year, providing reason to believe that it may return to stronger cash conversion in the future. Shareholders should look for improved cashflow relative to profit in the current year, if that is indeed the case.
截至2024年9月,傑克仕太平洋的準備比例爲0.48。從統計上講,這對未來盈利是真正的負面影響。實際上,在該時期內,該公司根本沒有產生任何自由現金流。過去十二個月中,儘管盈利爲3310萬美元,但流出了4700萬美元,實際上是負的自由現金流。值得注意的是,傑克仕太平洋一年前產生了9000萬美元的正的自由現金流,所以至少他們過去做到了。不幸的是,該公司還一直在發行新股,稀釋了他們未來盈利的份額。對於傑克仕太平洋的股東來說,一個積極的因素是,它的準備比例去年顯著好轉,說明它可能將來會有更強的現金轉化能力。如果情況確實如此,股東應該尋找當前年度相對盈利改善的現金流。
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
這可能會讓您想知道分析師對未來盈利能力的預測。幸運的是,您可以單擊此處查看基於其估計的未來盈利能力的互動圖表。
To understand the value of a company's earnings growth, it is imperative to consider any dilution of shareholders' interests. As it happens, JAKKS Pacific issued 9.1% more new shares over the last year. As a result, its net income is now split between a greater number of shares. To celebrate net income while ignoring dilution is like rejoicing because you have a single slice of a larger pizza, but ignoring the fact that the pizza is now cut into many more slices. You can see a chart of JAKKS Pacific's EPS by clicking here.
要了解公司盈利增長的價值,有必要考慮股東權益的稀釋情況。正如所發生的,傑克仕太平洋在過去一年內新增了9.1%的新股。因此,其淨利潤現在被分配給更多的股份。如果因爲擁有更大比薩的一片而高興,而忽視比薩現在被切成更多塊這個事實,來慶祝淨利潤是不恰當的。您可以點擊這裏查看傑克仕太平洋每股收益的圖表。
How Is Dilution Impacting JAKKS Pacific's Earnings Per Share (EPS)?
股東權益稀釋如何影響傑克仕太平洋的每股收益(EPS)?
JAKKS Pacific was losing money three years ago. And even focusing only on the last twelve months, we see profit is down 61%. Sadly, earnings per share fell further, down a full 64% in that time. So you can see that the dilution has had a bit of an impact on shareholders.
三年前,傑克仕太平洋曾經虧損。即使只專注於最近的十二個月,我們看到利潤下降了61%。遺憾的是,每股收益進一步下降,在那段時間裏下降了整整64%。因此,您可以看到稀釋對股東產生了一定影響。
In the long term, if JAKKS Pacific's earnings per share can increase, then the share price should too. But on the other hand, we'd be far less excited to learn profit (but not EPS) was improving. For that reason, you could say that EPS is more important that net income in the long run, assuming the goal is to assess whether a company's share price might grow.
從長期來看,如果傑克仕太平洋的每股收益能夠增加,那麼股價也應該會上升。但另一方面,我們發現利潤(但不包括EPS)改善會令人興奮度較低。基於這個原因,可以說EPS在長期內比淨利潤更重要,假設目標是評估公司股價是否會增長。
Our Take On JAKKS Pacific's Profit Performance
我們對傑克仕太平洋的盈利表現的看法
In conclusion, JAKKS Pacific has weak cashflow relative to earnings, which indicates lower quality earnings, and the dilution means that shareholders now own a smaller proportion of the company (assuming they maintained the same number of shares). Considering all this we'd argue JAKKS Pacific's profits probably give an overly generous impression of its sustainable level of profitability. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing JAKKS Pacific at this point in time. Our analysis shows 3 warning signs for JAKKS Pacific (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) and we strongly recommend you look at these before investing.
總的來說,傑克仕太平洋相對於盈利的現金流較弱,這表明盈利質量較低,而稀釋意味着股東現在擁有公司較小的比例(假設他們保持不變的股份數)。考慮到所有這些情況,我們認爲傑克仕太平洋的利潤可能過分慷慨地展示了其可持續盈利水平。因此,儘管盈利質量很重要,但在考慮當前面臨的風險時,同樣重要的是考慮傑克仕太平洋。我們的分析顯示傑克仕太平洋有3個警示信號(其中1個我們不太滿意!),我們強烈建議您在投資之前查看這些內容。
Our examination of JAKKS Pacific has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.
我們對傑克仕太平洋的審查側重於一些因素,這些因素可能會使其收益看起來比實際情況更好。基於這一點,我們有些懷疑。但如果您能集中注意力在細枝末節上,總會有更多發現。有些人認爲股本回報率高是質量業務的良好跡象。因此,您可能希望查看此處收集的股本回報率高的公司,或者查看此處擁有高內部持股的股票清單。
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