BEIJING-SHANGHAI HIGH SPEED RAILWAY(601816):3Q24 RESULTS MISS DUE TO A SLOWDOWN IN THE GROWTH OF PASSENGER VOLUME
BEIJING-SHANGHAI HIGH SPEED RAILWAY(601816):3Q24 RESULTS MISS DUE TO A SLOWDOWN IN THE GROWTH OF PASSENGER VOLUME
Trends to watch3Q24 results miss our and market expectations
3季度24季度的業績未達到我們和市場的預期
Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway (BJ-SH HSR) announced its 3Q24 results: Revenue fell 0.9% YoY and rose 6.8% QoQ to Rmb11.49bn, and attributable net profit fell 3.2% YoY and grew 7.8% QoQ to Rmb3.66bn, missing our and market expectations. We attribute the lower-than- expected results to a wider YoY decline in passenger turnover of Beijing- Shanghai high-speed railway and slower YoY growth in turnover of railway network service in 3Q24.
京滬高鐵宣佈其季度24季度的業績：營業收入同比下降0.9%，環比增長6.8%至114.9億人民幣，歸屬淨利潤同比下降3.2%，環比增長7.8%至36.6億人民幣，未達到我們和市場的預期。我們認爲造成低於預期結果的原因是京滬高鐵旅客週轉同比下降幅度較大，鐵路網絡服務週轉同比增速在季度24季度放緩。
In 1-3Q24, revenue rose 4.8% YoY to Rmb32.36bn, and attributable net profit grew 12.4% YoY to Rmb10.02bn.
在季度24的前三季度，營業收入同比增長4.8%至323.6億人民幣，歸屬淨利潤同比增長12.4%至100.2億人民幣。
Trends to watch
需要注意的趨勢
Growth in national passenger transport volume slowed in 3Q24; decline in distance widened. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, railway passenger volume rose 6.8% YoY to about 1.24bn in 3Q24, the passenger turnover grew 1.0% YoY to 477.62bn km, and average operating distance fell 5.5% YoY to 384 train-kilometer. Growth in both passenger volume and turnover slowed compared with the previous two quarters (for example, YoY growth in passenger volume was 28.5% and 10.2% in 1Q24 and 2Q24), and the decline in distance widened (the decline was 3.4% in 1Q24 and 4.4% in 2Q24). In our view, the passenger volume and turnover performance of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway may be in line with the overall market trend, and may also be the main reason behind the firm's lower-than-expected 3Q24 results.
全國客運量增速在季度24減緩； 運輸距離下降。根據國家統計局的數據，鐵路客運量同比增長6.8%至約124億人次，客運週轉同比增長1.0%至4776.2億公里，平均運營距離同比下降5.5%至384列車公里。與前兩個季度相比，客運量和週轉的增速放緩（例如，季度24的同比增速分別爲28.5%和10.2%），並且距離下降幅度擴大（分別爲季度24的3.4%和2.4%）。依據我們的觀點，京滬高鐵的客運量和週轉表現可能與整體市場趨勢一致，也可能是公司季度24業績低於預期的主要原因。
Jingfu Anhui turned profitable in 3Q24, beating market expectations. Given the firm's minority interests, we estimate that earnings of Jingfu Anhui reached about Rmb28mn in 3Q24, with YoY and QoQ growth turning positive (vs. a loss of about Rmb79mn in 3Q23 and loss of Rmb66mn in 2Q24). The performance of Jingfu Anhui beat market expectations.
淨富安徽在季度24實現盈利，超出市場預期。考慮到公司的少數股權，我們估計淨富安徽23億人民幣，同比增長爲正（相較於季度23約7.9億人民幣的虧損和季度24約6.6億人民幣的虧損）。淨富安徽的業績超出市場預期。
Cash flow remained strong. In 3Q24, operating cash flow was Rmb5.42bn, and net repayment of interest-bearing liabilities was Rmb3.48bn (the firm booked operating cash flow of Rmb10.32bn and net debt repayment of about Rmb10bn in 1H24). Net debt at end-3Q24 was about Rmb45.7bn, down 10% from the end-2Q24 level. Financial expenses fell 22.9% YoY in 3Q24 thanks to falling interest-bearing liabilities.
現金流保持強勁。季度24的經營現金流爲54.2億人民幣，淨償還的利息負債爲34.8億人民幣（公司在上半年24錄得103.2億人民幣的經營現金流和淨償還約100億人民幣的負債）。季度24末淨負債約457億人民幣，較季度24末水平下降10%。由於利息負債下降，季度24財務費用同比減少22.9%。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值。
Given lower-than-expected turnover in 3Q24, we cut our 2024 and 2025 attributable net profit forecasts 7.4% and 6.5% to Rmb12.76bn and Rmb14.26bn, implying YoY growth of 10.5% and 11.8%. The stock is trading at 21.8x 2024e and 19.5x 2025e P/E. Given the firm's ample cash flow and solid dividends, we maintain an OUTPERFORM rating and our TP of Rmb6.14, implying 23.6x 2024e and 21.1x 2025e P/E, offering 8.5% upside.
鑑於2024年第三季度營業收入低於預期，我們將2024年和2025年的淨利潤預測調降了7.4%和6.5%，至127.6億元人民幣和142.6億元人民幣，暗示同比增長分別爲10.5%和11.8%。該股票目前以2024年預期市盈率的21.8倍和2025年預期市盈率的19.5倍交易。考慮到公司充足的現金流和穩定的分紅派息，我們維持跑贏大盤的評級，並將目標價定爲6.14元人民幣，對應2024年預期市盈率和2025年預期市盈率分別爲23.6倍和21.1倍，提供8.5%的上行空間。
Risks
風險
Disappointing growth of passenger traffic volume; changes in cost settlement mechanism.
乘客交通量增長乏力；成本結算機制調整。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
