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China CSSC Holdings Limited Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

China CSSC Holdings Limited Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

中國船舶控股有限公司收入低於分析師預期:這裏是分析師現在的預測
Simply Wall St ·  11/03 08:23

As you might know, China CSSC Holdings Limited (SHSE:600150) last week released its latest third-quarter, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at CN¥20b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 41%, coming in at just CN¥0.19 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on China CSSC Holdings after the latest results.

正如您所知,中國船舶控股有限公司(SHSE:600150)上週發佈了最新的第三季度業績報告,對股東來說並不盡如人意。總體來說,這並不是一個出色的業績——儘管營業收入略低於分析師對200億人民幣的預期,但法定盈利卻驚人地低於預期,僅爲每股0.19元人民幣。盈利是投資者關注的重要時刻,他們可以追蹤公司的業績,查看分析師對明年的預測,並了解市場對該公司的情緒是否有變化。讀者將會欣喜地得知,我們已經彙總了最新的法定預測,以查看分析師在最新業績公佈後是否改變對中國船舶控股的看法。

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SHSE:600150 Earnings and Revenue Growth November 3rd 2024
SHSE:600150 第三季度盈利和營業收入增長2024年11月3日

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from China CSSC Holdings' six analysts is for revenues of CN¥91.7b in 2025. This would reflect a solid 13% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 205% to CN¥1.82. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥92.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.89 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

考慮到最新業績,中國船舶控股的六名分析師目前達成的共識是,2025年營業收入預計達到917億人民幣。這將反映出過去12個月營業收入穩健增長了13%。每股盈利預計將增長205%,達到1.82元人民幣。在這份盈利報告之前,分析師們一直在預測2025年的營業收入爲923億人民幣,每股盈利(EPS)爲1.89元人民幣。所以看起來在最新的業績結果發佈後,整體情緒略有下滑——營業收入預測沒有發生重大變化,但分析師們對每股盈利的預測卻有輕微下調。

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at CN¥47.10, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values China CSSC Holdings at CN¥50.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CN¥44.30. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

也許令人驚訝的是,共識價格目標在47.10人民幣上基本保持不變,分析師明確表明他們認爲盈利預期下滑不會對估值產生太大影響。不過,有另一種看待價格目標的方式,那就是查看分析師提出的價格目標範圍,因爲廣泛的估算範圍可能暗示人們對企業可能結果持有不同看法。目前,最看好的分析師認爲中國船舶控股的價值爲每股50.00人民幣,而最看淡的則認爲爲每股44.30人民幣。儘管如此,由於估算範圍如此狹窄,這表明分析師們對他們認爲公司價值有着相當明確的想法。

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the China CSSC Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of China CSSC Holdings'historical trends, as the 10% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 10% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry (in aggregate), which analyst estimates suggest will see revenues grow 17% annually. So it's pretty clear that China CSSC Holdings is expected to grow slower than similar companies in the same industry.

這些估算很有趣,但在比較預測時,看到中國船舶控股過去表現及同行業同行之間的比較更有幫助。從最新的估算中,我們可以推斷預測預計中國船舶控股將延續歷史趨勢,因爲到2025年底的年化營業收入增長率爲10%,大致與過去五年的10%年增長率相匹配。將其與更廣泛的行業(總體而言)進行比較,分析師估計顯示預計行業年均收入增長17%。因此很明顯,中國船舶控股預計增長速度將慢於同行中的類似公司。

The Bottom Line

最重要的事情是分析師增加了它對下一年每股虧損的估計。令人欣慰的是,營收預測未發生重大變化,業務仍有望比整個行業增長更快。共識價格目標穩定在28.50美元,最新估計不足以對價格目標產生影響。

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for China CSSC Holdings. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that China CSSC Holdings' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

最大的擔憂在於分析師下調了每股收益的估算,暗示中國船舶控股可能面臨業務挑戰。幸運的是,分析師也重新確認了他們的營業收入估算,表明其與預期保持一致。儘管我們的數據顯示中國船舶控股的營業收入預計表現將不如更廣泛的行業。對共識價格目標沒有真正變化,這表明業務的內在價值在最新估算中沒有發生重大變化。

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on China CSSC Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for China CSSC Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

考慮到這一點,我們不應該急於對中國船舶控股做出結論。長期盈利能力比明年的利潤更重要。我們爲中國船舶控股制定了2026年的預測,您可以在我們的平台上免費查看。

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for China CSSC Holdings that you should be aware of.

然而,在你過於興奮之前,我們發現中國船舶控股有1個警示標誌,您應該知曉。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。

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