Shareholders of MYR Group Inc. (NASDAQ:MYRG) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 14% to US$130 following its latest third-quarter results. It looks to have been a decent result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$888m, statutory earnings beat expectations by a notable 55%, coming in at US$0.65 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

After the latest results, the four analysts covering MYR Group are now predicting revenues of US$3.61b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a modest 2.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 160% to US$6.18. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$3.66b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.70 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

The consensus price target was unchanged at US$131, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on MYR Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$138 and the most bearish at US$124 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that MYR Group is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the MYR Group's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that MYR Group's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 1.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 13% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 8.4% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that MYR Group is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around MYR Group's earnings potential next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$131, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for MYR Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with MYR Group , and understanding this should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.