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We Think Commercial Metals (NYSE:CMC) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

We Think Commercial Metals (NYSE:CMC) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

我們認爲美國工商五金公司(紐交所:CMC)能夠控制好其債務
Simply Wall St ·  11/02 20:51

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. As with many other companies Commercial Metals Company (NYSE:CMC) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

禾倫·巴菲特曾經說過,「波動性與風險遠非同義詞」。因此,似乎明智的投資者知道,債務(通常涉及破產)是評估公司風險性的一個非常重要因素。與許多其他公司一樣,美國工商五金公司(紐交所:CMC)使用債務。但這種債務是否令股東擔憂呢?

When Is Debt Dangerous?

債務何時有危險?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

企業通過新資本或自由現金流支付債務。債務協助業務直至業務遇到問題。在最壞的情況下,公司無法償付債權人,可能會破產。然而,更普遍(但仍慘痛的)情況是以低價格募集新股權資本,因此永久稀釋股東的股份。當然,許多公司使用債務資助業務增長,而毫無負面後果。在檢查債務水平時,首先考慮現金和債務水平。

How Much Debt Does Commercial Metals Carry?

美國工商五金公司負債多少?

The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Commercial Metals had US$1.05b in debt in August 2024; about the same as the year before. However, because it has a cash reserve of US$857.9m, its net debt is less, at about US$190.4m.

下圖顯示,美國工商五金公司於2024年8月有10.5億美元的債務;與前一年持平。然而,由於其現金儲備達到了85790萬美元,其淨債務較少,約爲19040萬美元。

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NYSE:CMC Debt to Equity History November 2nd 2024
紐交所:CMC資產負債歷史數據,2024年11月2日

How Strong Is Commercial Metals' Balance Sheet?

美國工商五金公司的資產負債表有多強?

The latest balance sheet data shows that Commercial Metals had liabilities of US$834.9m due within a year, and liabilities of US$1.68b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had US$857.9m in cash and US$1.16b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$500.9m.

最新的資產負債表顯示,美國工商五金公司有83490萬美元的短期到期負債,以及16.8億美元的到期後負債。相對應的,其有85790萬美元的現金和11.6億美元的應收賬款在12個月內到期。因此,其負債比其現金和(短期)應收賬款的總和多50090萬美元。

Given Commercial Metals has a market capitalization of US$6.13b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse.

考慮到美國工商五金公司市值爲61.3億美元,很難相信這些負債構成了多大威脅。儘管如此,顯而易見我們應該繼續監控其資產負債表,以防情況變得更糟。

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

我們通過將公司的淨債務與其息稅折舊攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)相除,並計算其息稅前利潤(EBIT)如何覆蓋其利息費用(利息覆蓋率)來衡量公司的債務負擔相對於其盈利能力。因此,我們同時考慮債務的絕對數量以及所支付的利率。

Commercial Metals's net debt is only 0.21 times its EBITDA. And its EBIT covers its interest expense a whopping 14.5 times over. So we're pretty relaxed about its super-conservative use of debt. It is just as well that Commercial Metals's load is not too heavy, because its EBIT was down 41% over the last year. Falling earnings (if the trend continues) could eventually make even modest debt quite risky. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Commercial Metals can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

美國工商五金公司的淨債務僅爲EBITDA的0.21倍。而其EBIt覆蓋其利息費用高達14.5倍。所以我們對其超保守的債務使用相當放心。很幸運的是,美國工商五金公司的負擔並不太重,因爲其EBIt在過去一年下降了41%。收入下降(如果趨勢持續)甚至可能使即使是適度的債務變得相當風險。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是顯而易見的起點。但最終業務的未來盈利能力將決定美國工商五金公司是否能隨時間加強其資產負債表。所以如果你專注於未來,你可以查看這份免費報告,顯示分析師的利潤預測。

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, Commercial Metals recorded free cash flow of 49% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.

但我們最後的考慮也很重要,因爲一家公司不能用紙面利潤償還債務;它需要現金。因此,驗證EBIt有多少是由自由現金流支持是值得的。回顧最近的三年,美國工商五金公司記錄的自由現金流佔其EBIt的49%,低於我們的預期。在償還債務時,這不太好。

Our View

我們的觀點

Based on what we've seen Commercial Metals is not finding it easy, given its EBIT growth rate, but the other factors we considered give us cause to be optimistic. There's no doubt that its ability to to cover its interest expense with its EBIT is pretty flash. When we consider all the elements mentioned above, it seems to us that Commercial Metals is managing its debt quite well. But a word of caution: we think debt levels are high enough to justify ongoing monitoring. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Commercial Metals that you should be aware of before investing here.

根據我們觀察到的情況,美國工商五金公司似乎並不輕鬆,鑑於其EBIt增長率,但考慮到我們認爲的其他因素,我們有理由樂觀。毫無疑問,它用EBIt覆蓋利息費用的能力相當突出。當我們考慮到上述所有因素時,我們認爲美國工商五金公司在管理債務方面做得相當不錯。但需要注意的是:我們認爲債務水平足夠高,需要進行持續監控。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中大部分了解債務情況。但最終,每家公司都可能存在超出資產負債表之外的風險。例如,我們發現了1個關於美國工商五金公司的警示標誌,您在投資之前應該注意。

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

如果在所有這些之後,您更感興趣的是具有堅實資產負債表的快速增長公司,那麼不要拖延,查看我們的淨現金增長股票列表。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


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