As you might know, Day One Biopharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:DAWN) recently reported its quarterly numbers. Revenues of 230% beat expectations by US$94m and was sufficient to generate a statutory profit of US$0.38 - a pleasant surprise given that the analysts were forecasting a loss! The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Day One Biopharmaceuticals' eleven analysts is for revenues of US$146.5m in 2025. This reflects a sizeable 44% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are forecast to balloon 125% to US$1.88 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$134.5m and losses of US$1.83 per share in 2025. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on Day One Biopharmaceuticals after the new consensus numbers; while the analysts lifted revenue numbers, they also administered a modest increase to per-share loss expectations.

There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$37.00, with growing revenues seemingly enough to offset the concern of growing losses. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Day One Biopharmaceuticals at US$45.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$28.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Day One Biopharmaceuticals' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Day One Biopharmaceuticals' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 34% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 119% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 21% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Day One Biopharmaceuticals' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$37.00, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Day One Biopharmaceuticals analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Day One Biopharmaceuticals you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.