BYD(1211.HK):3Q24 GPM PROVIDES CONFIDENCE FOR FY25 SALES
BYD(1211.HK):3Q24 GPM PROVIDES CONFIDENCE FOR FY25 SALES
Solid earnings quality in the past three years lays a foundation for FY25E earnings. It appears to us that BYD still prioritizes market share, global expansion and earnings quality, rather than rapid earnings growth. That could make our forecasts for SG&A and R&D expenses more difficult. We project selling expenses to rise at the same rate as revenue growth in FY25E given its aggressive overseas expansion. We forecast BYD's R&D investments to increase to RMB51bn in FY25E, with 99% expensed. Should such number or ratio change slightly, the impact on net profit could be significant.Maintain BUY. Although we had expected a QoQ lift in gross margin, BYD's 3Q24 gross margin still beat our forecast. Such beat was offset by higher-than- expected SG&A and R&D expenses. The solid gross margin gives us more confidence in forecasting 4Q24 and FY25 sales volume, as BYD still has the best resources to withstand the prolonged price war.
維持買入。儘管我們預期毛利率環比上升， 比亞迪 3Q24的毛利率仍超出我們的預測。這種超出部分被高於預期的銷售及管理費用和研發費用所抵消。堅實的毛利率讓我們對預測4Q24和FY25的銷量更有信心，因爲比亞迪仍然擁有最好的資源來經受持續的價格戰。
3Q24 GPM beat, SG&A and R&D miss. BYD's gross margin rose by 3.2ppts QoQ to 21.9% in 3Q24, about 0.9ppts higher than our prior forecast. On the other hand, SG&A and R&D combined ratio (as % of revenue) was 2.2ppts higher than our estimates. Although government grants and VAT refunds rose faster than our projection, they were partially offset by an unexpected forex loss. Therefore, BYD's 3Q24 net profit of RMB11.6bn was 15% lower than our prior forecast.
3Q24毛利率超預期，銷售及管理費用和研發費用不及預期。 比亞迪的毛利率在3Q24環比上升了3.2個百分點，達到21.9%，比我們之前的預測高了0.9個百分點。 另一方面，銷售及管理費用和研發費用的合併比率（佔營業收入的比例）比我們的估計高了2.2個百分點。儘管政府補助和增值稅退稅的增長速度超過我們的預期，但它們部分被意外的外匯損失所抵消。因此，比亞迪的3Q24淨利潤爲116億元人民幣，比我們之前的預測低了15%。
Recent strong sales momentum could extend into FY25E. We revise up our FY24E sales volume forecast by 4% to 4.02mn units, as the DM-i 5.0 PHEV models are more competitive than we had expected. That also gives us more confidence about FY25E sales volume, as sales and new order growth in the last few months was not at the cost of lower gross margin. We project FY25E sales volume to rise 13% YoY to 4.55mn units with a gross margin of 20.3% (vs. 20.6% in FY24E on our estimates).
最近強勁的銷售勢頭可能延續到FY25E。我們將FY24E銷量預測上調4%，至402萬輛，因爲 Dm-i 5.0 PHEV型號比我們預期的更具競爭力。 這也讓我們對FY25E的銷量更有信心，因爲過去幾個月的銷售和新增訂單增長並沒有以犧牲較低的毛利率爲代價。 我們預計FY25E的銷量將同比增長13%，達到455萬輛，毛利率爲20.3%（根據我們的預估，FY24E的毛利率爲20.6%）。
Solid earnings quality in the past three years lays a foundation for FY25E earnings. It appears to us that BYD still prioritizes market share, global expansion and earnings quality, rather than rapid earnings growth. That could make our forecasts for SG&A and R&D expenses more difficult. We project selling expenses to rise at the same rate as revenue growth in FY25E given its aggressive overseas expansion. We forecast BYD's R&D investments to increase to RMB51bn in FY25E, with 99% expensed. Should such number or ratio change slightly, the impact on net profit could be significant.
過去三年穩固的盈利質量爲FY25E的盈利奠定了基礎。在我們看來， 比亞迪 仍然把市場份額、全球擴張和盈利質量放在首位，而不是迅速的盈利增長。 這可能會使我們對FY25E銷售及管理費用和研發費用的預測更加困難。鑑於其積極的境外擴張，我們預計銷售費用會隨營收增長速度同比增長。 我們預測 比亞迪 的研發投入將在FY25E增至510億元人民幣，其中99%列爲費用。 如果這個數字或比率略有變化，對淨利潤的影響可能是顯著的。
Valuation/Key risks. We cut our FY24E net profit by 0.6% to RMB36.0bn and raise FY25E net profit by 4% to RMB47.5bn. We maintain our BUY rating and raise target price from HK$262 to HK$350, based on 20x (prior 15x) our FY25E EPS to reflect the recently improving investor sentiment. Key risks to our rating and target price include lower sales and/or margins than our expectation, as well as a sector de-rating.
估值/主要風險。我們將FY24E的淨利潤下調0.6%，至360億元人民幣，並將FY25E的淨利潤上調4%，至475億元人民幣。我們維持買入評級，並將目標價從262港元上調至350港元，基於我們對FY25E每股收益的20倍（之前爲15倍），以反映最近改善的投資者情緒。 我們評級和目標價的關鍵風險包括低於預期的銷售和/或毛利率，以及板塊降級。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
