The third-quarter results for Giga Device Semiconductor Inc. (SHSE:603986) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of CN¥2.0b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Giga Device Semiconductor surprised by delivering a statutory profit of CN¥0.47 per share, a notable 17% above expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Giga Device Semiconductor's 18 analysts is for revenues of CN¥9.36b in 2025. This reflects a huge 33% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 185% to CN¥2.39. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥9.31b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥2.38 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of CN¥94.37, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Giga Device Semiconductor, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥116 and the most bearish at CN¥56.00 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that Giga Device Semiconductor's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 26% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 12% p.a. over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 23% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Giga Device Semiconductor is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Giga Device Semiconductor analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Giga Device Semiconductor that you should be aware of.

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