WILLSEMI(603501):3Q RESULTS IN LINE WITH GRADUAL RECOVERY
WILLSEMI(603501):3Q RESULTS IN LINE WITH GRADUAL RECOVERY
Improvement of Touch/Display business to lift future margins. Mgmt. said their TDDI product offering has expanded to 4-5 categories vs. previous single category. Mgmt. expects the segment profitability to improve in the following years, with continuous cost control and IP accumulations.Willsemi reported 3Q24 results, and we attended its earnings call. The company achieved a record quarterly revenue of RMB6.8bn (up 9.5% YoY/5.7% QoQ), 2%/4% lower than our estimate/consensus. Mgmt. attributed the growth to consumer demand recovery, increasing product penetration in high-end smartphone market and autonomous driving applications. GPM remained stable at 30.4% in 3Q (vs. 30.2% in 2Q24), suggesting the business has been recovered from the cycle trough (GPM was up 8.6ppts from 3Q23). NP was RMB1.0bn (up 368.3% YoY/24.6% QoQ), in line with our estimate and 2% higher than consensus. The growth was mainly due to 1) a low base in 3Q23 (RMB0.2bn), 2) favourable product mix and 3) cost control. NPM steadily improved to 14.8% in 3Q24 vs. 3.5%/12.6% in 3Q24/2Q24. Maintain BUY, with adjusted TP to RMB130, corresponding to 32x 2025E P/E (vs. prev. 40.7x).
Willsemi報告了3Q24的業績，我們參加了它的業績會。公司實現了創紀錄的季度營收達68億元人民幣（同比增長9.5%/環比增長5.7%），低於我們的估計/共識2%/4%。管理層將增長歸因於消費者需求恢復、高端智能手機市場產品滲透率增加以及自動駕駛應用。3Q的GPm持續穩定在30.4%（較2Q24的30.2%），表明業務已從週期低谷中復甦（與3Q23相比GPm增長了8.6個百分點）。淨利潤爲10億元人民幣（同比增長368.3%/環比增長24.6%），符合我們的估計，高於共識2%。增長主要是由於1）3Q23的低基數（20億元人民幣）、2）有利的產品組合和3）成本控制。淨利潤率在3Q24穩步提高至14.8%，分別爲3Q24/2Q24的3.5%/12.6%。維持買入評級，調整目標價至130元人民幣，對應2025E市盈率32倍（之前爲40.7倍）。
Auto CIS will be the key growth driver. Mgmt. highlighted the growing opportunities in auto CIS market from 1) increasing number of cameras per vehicle (~11 cameras for EVs of RMB100k-150k vs. 4-5 previously) and 2) upgrades to higher resolution cameras (3M-8M vs. 1M previously). Benefiting from growing demand and higher ASP (3M/8M vs. 1M: ~1.4x/2x), Willsemi is well-positioned to ride the industry tailwind (a top two leader) as more EVs integrate multiple higher resolution cameras for ADAS and in-cabin functions supporting autonomous driving. We lift our forecasts for Willsemi's auto CIS sales growth for 2025/26E to 35%/25% vs. 20%/14%.
汽車CIS將成爲關鍵增長動力。管理層強調了汽車CIS市場增長機遇，主要包括1）車輛攝像頭數量增加（新能源汽車攝像頭數約11個，價格在10萬元至15萬元人民幣，之前爲4-5個），2）升級至更高分辨率攝像頭（300萬至800萬像素，之前爲100萬像素）。受益於增長需求和更高的 ASP（3M/800萬元相對於1M：約1.4倍/2倍），Willsemi在行業風口中處於有利位置（爲前兩位領導者），隨着更多新能源汽車集成多個更高分辨率攝像頭用於ADAS和車廂功能以支持自動駕駛。我們將對Willsemi 2025/26E汽車CIS銷售增長的預測上調至35%/25%，相較於之前的20%/14%。
Smartphone CIS to grow on share gains. The company will have a series of new product offerings in 2H25, such as 200M/0.6μm pixel, 50MP/1.0μm pixel and 50MP/1.6μm pixel products. We believe the broader product offering should enhance Willsemi's competitiveness in smartphone CIS market and therefore increase its market share. Mgmt. emphasized their strength in high- end products and the advantage with a broad set of self-design abilities.
智能手機CIS將通過市場份額增長。公司將在2025年下半年推出一系列新產品，例如2億像素/0.6μm，5000萬像素/1.0μm和5000萬像素/1.6μm產品。我們認爲更廣泛的產品線將增強Willsemi在智能手機CIS市場的競爭力，從而提高其市場份額。管理層強調了他們在高端產品和廣泛的自主設計能力方面的優勢。
Improvement of Touch/Display business to lift future margins. Mgmt. said their TDDI product offering has expanded to 4-5 categories vs. previous single category. Mgmt. expects the segment profitability to improve in the following years, with continuous cost control and IP accumulations.
觸控/蘋果-顯示屏業務的改善將提升未來盈利能力。管理層表示，他們的TDDI產品線已擴展到4-5個類別，之前僅有單一類別。管理層預計隨着持續的成本控制和知識產權積累，該業務部門的盈利能力將在未來幾年提高。
Maintain BUY with TP adjusted to RMB130, based on ~32x 2025E P/E, which is close to historical 1-year forward P/E. We maintain our forecasts for 2024 EPS and revise up 2025/26E estimates by 4%/5% on higher auto CIS sales projections. Key risks include weaker-than-expected demand recovery, intensified competition and heightened China-U.S. trade tensions.
保持買入評級，目標價調整爲人民幣130元，基於2025E市盈率約爲32倍，接近歷史1年期前瞻市盈率。我們維持對2024年每股收益的預測，並根據更高的汽車CIS銷售預測，將2025/26年度估計上調4%/5%。主要風險包括需求恢復弱於預期，競爭加劇以及中美貿易緊張局勢升級。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
