Mid Penn Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ:MPB) last week reported its latest quarterly results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. Mid Penn Bancorp reported US$45m in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.74 beat expectations, being 3.7% higher than what the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Mid Penn Bancorp after the latest results.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Mid Penn Bancorp's two analysts is for revenues of US$191.2m in 2025. This reflects a notable 11% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 9.2% to US$3.18. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$190.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.17 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$33.67.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Mid Penn Bancorp's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 8.5% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 16% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.7% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Mid Penn Bancorp is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$33.67, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Mid Penn Bancorp. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2026, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Mid Penn Bancorp that you should be aware of.

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