Microsoft Azure, Office 365, and Gaming To Drive Low Double Digit Growth: Analyst
Microsoft Azure, Office 365, and Gaming To Drive Low Double Digit Growth: Analyst
Bank of America Securities analyst Bradley Sills reiterated a Buy rating on Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) with a price target of $510.
美國銀行安防分析師布萊德利·希爾斯重申微軟公司（納斯達克股票代碼：MSFT）的買入評級，目標股價爲510美元。
Sills noted that Microsoft is well positioned to generate sustained low double-digit growth in the coming 3-5 years, led by continued adoption of the Azure cloud infrastructure platform, the cloud-based Office 365 productivity suite, and more profitable Games and Game Pass revenue in Xbox.
希爾斯指出，微軟在未來3-5年中有望實現持續的低兩位數增長，主要受到Azure雲基礎建設平台、基於雲的Office 365辦公套件以及Xbox中更加盈利的遊戲和遊戲通行證收入持續增長的帶動。
While a revenue mix shift toward lower-margin Azure and O365 segments is likely to offset scale benefits near-term, the analyst said operating expense scale will likely drive stable 50bps annual margin expansion over the coming years.
儘管營收組合向低毛利潤的Azure和O365業務部分轉移可能會抵消近期的規模效益，但該分析師表示，運營費用規模可能會推動未來幾年穩定的每年50個點子的利潤率擴張。
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Most Sills' partners suggest solidly inline or better first-quarter fiscal 2025 results. As such, the analyst expects a 0%—1% upside to his first-quarter revenue estimate of $64.7 billion (+14% year-on-year, +11% year-on-year organic), driven by steady workload migration to Azure and upgrade momentum in the Office premium E3 and E5 cycle, somewhat offset by PC and Windows softness.
大多數希爾斯的合作伙伴表示，2025財年第一季度的業績預計會穩定達到或優於預期。因此，該分析師預計其第一季度營收預估647億美元（同比增長14%，有機增長11%）可能會有0%-1%的上行空間，受Azure工作負載持續遷移和Office高級E3和E5循環升級勢頭穩定帶動，部分抵消PC和Windows軟件的疲軟。
Sills' commentary with partners suggests an inline migration of workloads to Azure, led by cloud migration and expanding AI. The analyst noted that security remained an area of strength.
希爾斯與合作伙伴交流表明，工作負載向Azure轉移的步伐保持一致，主要受到雲遷移和擴展人工智能的引領。該分析師指出，安防仍然是一個強項。
He would look for upside Azure growth of 33%-34% year-on-year, under restated metrics (with 12% points from AI), versus his base of 33% (11%).
他將尋求Azure的年同比增長率達到33%-34%，根據經過重新排列的指標（其中12個百分點來自人工智能），與他的基礎水平33%（11%）相比。
Sills' estimate for M365 copilot revenue remains modest at $275 million. For More Personal Computing, he expects a largely inline result with his $12.5 billion estimate (+12% Y/Y).
希爾斯對M365副駕駛營收的預測仍然保持在27500萬美元的水平。對於更多個人計算，他預計與他的125億美元預估相比，結果基本持平（同比增長12%）。
The analyst flagged that the stock is +10.4% year-to-date, driven by enthusiasm for AI-led growth in Azure and Office. However, the shares have lagged recently due to concerns about ramping capex and limited visibility on the respective return on investment.
分析師指出，該股票的年初至今漲幅爲+10.4％，受到人們對Azure和Office的人工智能增長的熱情推動。然而，由於對資本支出加速和投資回報的有限可見性的擔憂，股價最近存在滯後現象。
As per Sills, the stock is trading at 32 times the calendar year 2026 free cash flow, which is not stretched given the durability of low to mid-30s Azure growth, low mid-teens Office growth, and long-term scale on capex.
據西爾斯稱，該股票目前以2026年日曆年自由現金流的32倍交易，考慮到Azure增長低至中等30年代的持久性，以及Office增長低至中等10年代，以及資本支出的長期規模，估值並不高。
The analyst would look for multiple expansions as he approaches the expected second half of fiscal 2026 Azure reacceleration.
分析師將在預期的2026財年下半年Azure再加速之際尋求多重擴張。
Sills projected first-quarter revenue of $64.42 billion.
西爾斯預測第一季度營業收入爲644.2億美元。
The price target of $510 is based on an EV/FCF multiple of 40 times calendar year 2026 FCF or 1.9 times adjusted for low 20s growth, a premium to the software GARP group at 1.5 times for durability of growth.
510美元的目標股價基於2026年日曆年自由現金流的40倍EV/FCF倍數，或在低20%增長調整後爲1.9倍，這是對軟件GARP群體的溢價，其增長具有持續性，是1.5倍。
Price Action: MSFT stock is down 0.01% at $416.05 at the last check on Thursday.
價格走勢：微軟股票在週四最後交易時點報收於416.05美元，下跌了0.01％。
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圖片來自shutterstock。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
