Reddit Stock Faces Caution From JP Morgan: Strong Fundamentals, But Valuation Concerns Persist
Reddit Stock Faces Caution From JP Morgan: Strong Fundamentals, But Valuation Concerns Persist
JP Morgan analyst Doug Anmuth maintained a Neutral rating on Reddit, Inc (NYSE:RDDT) with a price target of $77, up from $59.
JP Morgan分析師Doug Anmuth保持對Reddit, Inc (紐交所:RDDT)的中立評級，目標股價由59美元上調至77美元。
Anmuth updated Reddit estimates ahead of third-quarter results to reflect recent positive trends.
Anmuth在第三季度業績公佈前更新了Reddit的估值，以反映最近的積極趨勢。
The analyst noted macro advertising trends are broadly stable and solid, and Reddit continues to make advancements moving down the ad funnel.
該分析師指出，宏觀廣告趨勢總體穩定堅實，Reddit繼續推動廣告漏斗下游的進展。
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He said that Reddit remains focused on driving higher monetization across performance ads (which drove 50%+ of growth in the second quarter), improving ad tech, and scaling new ad surfaces.
他表示，Reddit繼續專注於推動通過表現廣告實現更高變現（第二季度增長的50%+），改善廣告技術，以及擴展新的廣告展示渠道。
Anmuth expects Dynamic Product Ads (DPAs) to ramp through the second half, along with new ad placements on the conversation page, where ~50% of all screen views occur.
Anmuth預計動態產品廣告（DPAs）將在下半年加速推進，以及在對話頁上展示新的廣告位置，約50%的屏幕瀏覽次數發生在此處。
The analyst noted that top-of-funnel trends remain healthy, though year-on-year comps grow tougher in the second half and early fiscal 2025.
該分析師指出，頂端漏斗的趨勢仍然健康，儘管與去年同期相比，下半年和2025財年初的對比增長更爲艱難。
Reddit is expanding Machine Translation to 35+ new countries (using Gemini and OpenAI), which should support continued quarterly DAU growth.
Reddit正在將機器翻譯擴展至35個以上新國家（使用Gemini和OpenAI），這應該支持持續的季度DAU增長。
Overall, the analyst increased his third-quarter revenue to $325 million (up by 57% Y/Y and above the $290 million-$310 million guide) and his adjusted EBITDA to $72 million (22.0% margin and above the $40 million-$60 million guide).
總體來看，分析師將他的第三季度營業收入增加至32500萬美元（同比增長57%，高於29000萬-31000萬美元的指引），並將調整後的EBITDA增至7200萬美元（22.0%的利潤率，高於4000萬-6000萬美元的指引）。
For the fourth quarter, Anmuth projected revenue of $383 million (+53% Y/Y) and adjusted EBITDA of $105 million (27.5% margin).
對於第四季度，Anmuth預計營業收入爲38300萬美元（同比增長53%），調整後的EBITDA爲10500萬美元（27.5%的利潤率）。
Anmuth's 2025 & 2026 revenue increased 5%-6% from his previous estimates while EBITDA increased 8%-10%.
Anmuth的2025和2026年營業收入比他之前的估計提高了5%-6%，而EBITDA則增長了8%-10%。
After the company's second-quarter earnings report, the analyst emphasized that third-quarter guidance was conservative, likely driven by management concerns about the health of the ad market.
在公司第二季度業績後，分析師強調第三季度的指引過於保守，可能是由於管理層對廣告市場健康狀況的擔憂。
However, Anmuth noted that those fears were driven more by pockets of vertical brand softness that Snap Inc (NYSE:SNAP) and Pinterest, Inc (NYSE:PINS) noted, unlike Reddit during the third quarter.
然而，Anmuth指出，這些擔憂更多是受到垂直品牌軟度的影響，與Snap Inc（snap inc）和Pinterest, Inc（紐交所:PINS）在第三季度提到的情況不同，而不像Reddit那樣。
The analyst noted that overall online ad trends are stable, and Magna raised its 2024 U.S. digital outlook in September to +13.6% Y/Y from +12.9% prior.
分析師指出，總體在線廣告趨勢穩定，而Magna在9月將其2024年美國數字前景從之前的+12.9%上調至+13.6%。
Reddit's tone has been upbeat through the third. With the lock-up expiration behind, likely upside to estimates, and potential for new large language model (LLM) data licensing deals, Reddit has become a much more frequent topic of discussion with the investors, as per Anmuth.
Reddit在第三季度的態度一直很樂觀。隨着解禁之後，可能會超過估計，並有可能達成新的大型語言模型（LLM）數據許可協議，Reddit已經成爲Anmuth與投資者討論頻率較高的話題。
However, he noted that the stock price reflects this recent enthusiasm as Reddit is the best-performing name in his coverage year-to-date (for Reddit, since the IPO).
然而，他指出，股價反映了這種近期的熱情，因爲Reddit是迄今爲止他涵蓋範圍內表現最好的股票（對於Reddit，自IPO以來）。
Anmuth recognized that fundamentals appeared strong but remained on the sidelines as he sought greater confidence in the quarterly DAU trajectory over time and more excellent traction in the highly competitive online ad space. He noted that the stock was approaching fair valuation at ~7 times 2026 revenue.
Anmuth認爲基本面看起來強勁，但仍然觀望，因爲他希望隨着時間的推移獲得對季度DAU軌跡的更大信心，並在競爭激烈的在線廣告空間中獲得更出色的吸引力。他指出，股價正接近約7倍2026年的營業收入的合理估值。
The price target is based on ~32 times his 2026 adjusted EBITDA and ~32 times his 2026 free cash flow, equating to ~7.5 times his 2026 revenue estimate.
目標價格基於他2026年調整後的EBITDA大約32倍和他2026年自由現金流大約32倍，相當於他2026年營業收入估計的大約7.5倍。
Price Action: RDDT stock is down 0.62% at $71.93 at last check Monday.
股價走勢：RDDt股票在週一最後一次檢查時下跌0.62%，報71.93美元。
Image via Shutterstock
圖片來自shutterstock。
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譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
