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Union Pacific (NYSE:UNP) Hasn't Managed To Accelerate Its Returns

Union Pacific (NYSE:UNP) Hasn't Managed To Accelerate Its Returns

聯合太平洋(紐交所:UNP)未能加速其回報
Simply Wall St ·  10/06 20:51

There are a few key trends to look for if we want to identify the next multi-bagger. Amongst other things, we'll want to see two things; firstly, a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and secondly, an expansion in the company's amount of capital employed. If you see this, it typically means it's a company with a great business model and plenty of profitable reinvestment opportunities. However, after investigating Union Pacific (NYSE:UNP), we don't think it's current trends fit the mold of a multi-bagger.

如果我們想要識別下一個翻倍股,有一些關鍵趨勢值得關注。在其他因素中,我們將想要看到兩件事:首先,投入資本的回報率(ROCE)增長,其次,公司投入資本的數量擴大。如果您看到這一點,通常意味着這是一傢俱有出色業務模式和大量有利可圖的再投資機會的公司。然而,在調查聯合太平洋(紐交所:UNP)之後,我們認爲其當前趨勢不符合翻倍股的模式。

Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What Is It?

資本僱用回報率(ROCE)是什麼?

For those that aren't sure what ROCE is, it measures the amount of pre-tax profits a company can generate from the capital employed in its business. To calculate this metric for Union Pacific, this is the formula:

對於那些不確定什麼是ROCE的人,它衡量公司在其業務中從投入資本中可以獲得多少稅前利潤。要爲聯合太平洋計算此指標,這是公式:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

資產僱用回報率(ROCE)是指企業利潤,即企業稅前利潤除以企業投入的總資本(負債加股權)。如果ROCE高於企業財務成本的承受能力,那麼企業就會創造出更多的價值。

0.15 = US$9.4b ÷ (US$68b - US$4.3b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).

0.15 = 94億美元 ÷(680億美元 - 4.3億美元)(基於2024年6月止的過去十二個月)。

Therefore, Union Pacific has an ROCE of 15%. In absolute terms, that's a satisfactory return, but compared to the Transportation industry average of 7.0% it's much better.

因此,聯合太平洋的ROCE爲15%。絕對值而言,這是一個令人滿意的回報,但與運輸行業平均7.0%相比,要好得多。

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NYSE:UNP Return on Capital Employed October 6th 2024
2024年10月6日紐交所:UNP資本利用回報

In the above chart we have measured Union Pacific's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free analyst report for Union Pacific .

在以上圖表中,我們已經測量了聯合太平洋之前的ROCE與之前的業績,但未來可能更重要。如果您想了解分析師未來的預測,請查看我們針對聯合太平洋的免費分析師報告。

The Trend Of ROCE

當尋找下一個倍增器時,如果您不確定從哪裏開始,請關注幾個關鍵趨勢。首先,我們希望看到一個經過驗證的資本使用率。如果您看到這一點,通常意味着這是一家擁有出色業務模式和大量盈利再投資機會的公司。然而,調查蒙托克可再生能源公司(NASDAQ:MNTK)後,我們認爲它的現行趨勢不符合倍增器的模式。

Things have been pretty stable at Union Pacific, with its capital employed and returns on that capital staying somewhat the same for the last five years. It's not uncommon to see this when looking at a mature and stable business that isn't re-investing its earnings because it has likely passed that phase of the business cycle. So unless we see a substantial change at Union Pacific in terms of ROCE and additional investments being made, we wouldn't hold our breath on it being a multi-bagger. With fewer investment opportunities, it makes sense that Union Pacific has been paying out a decent 42% of its earnings to shareholders. Given the business isn't reinvesting in itself, it makes sense to distribute a portion of earnings among shareholders.

聯合太平洋的資本運作穩定,過去五年裏資本回報率和資本回報率保持基本不變。在審視成熟穩定的業務時,看到這種情況並不罕見,因爲這種業務可能已經度過了投資回報週期。因此,除非我們看到聯合太平洋的ROCE和額外投資發生顯著變化,否則我們不指望它能成爲暴漲股。由於投資機會較少,聯合太平洋向股東支付了相當可觀的42%盈利。考慮到該企業不再自我投資,將部分盈利分配給股東是合理的。

In Conclusion...

最後,同等資本下回報率較低的趨勢通常不是我們關注創業板股票的最佳信號。由於這些發展進行良好,因此投資者不太可能表現友好。自五年前以來,該股下跌了32%。除非這些指標朝着更積極的軌跡轉變,否則我們將繼續尋找其他股票。

In a nutshell, Union Pacific has been trudging along with the same returns from the same amount of capital over the last five years. Although the market must be expecting these trends to improve because the stock has gained 65% over the last five years. Ultimately, if the underlying trends persist, we wouldn't hold our breath on it being a multi-bagger going forward.

簡言之,聯合太平洋在過去五年裏一直憑藉同樣數量的資本獲得相同的回報。儘管市場可能期待這些趨勢會改善,因爲股票在過去五年中上漲了65%。最終,如果基本趨勢持續存在,我們不指望它未來會成爲暴漲股。

If you want to continue researching Union Pacific, you might be interested to know about the 1 warning sign that our analysis has discovered.

如果您想繼續研究聯合太平洋,您可能會對我們的分析發現的1個警示信號感興趣。

If you want to search for solid companies with great earnings, check out this free list of companies with good balance sheets and impressive returns on equity.

如果您想尋找財務狀況良好、回報卓越的實力強企業,可以免費查看以下公司列表。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


以上內容僅用作資訊或教育之目的,不構成與富途相關的任何投資建議。富途竭力但無法保證上述全部內容的真實性、準確性和原創性。
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