This month, we saw the JetBlue Airways Corporation (NASDAQ:JBLU) up an impressive 45%. But don't envy holders -- looking back over 5 years the returns have been really bad. In fact, the share price has declined rather badly, down some 57% in that time. So we're not so sure if the recent bounce should be celebrated. Of course, this could be the start of a turnaround.

On a more encouraging note the company has added US$305m to its market cap in just the last 7 days, so let's see if we can determine what's driven the five-year loss for shareholders.

JetBlue Airways wasn't profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. That's because it's hard to be confident a company will be sustainable if revenue growth is negligible, and it never makes a profit.

In the last half decade, JetBlue Airways saw its revenue increase by 11% per year. That's a pretty good rate for a long time period. The share price, meanwhile, has fallen 9% compounded, over five years. It seems probably that the business has failed to live up to initial expectations. A pessimistic market can create opportunities.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think JetBlue Airways will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that JetBlue Airways shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 55% over one year. Notably the five-year annualised TSR loss of 9% per year compares very unfavourably with the recent share price performance. The long term loss makes us cautious, but the short term TSR gain certainly hints at a brighter future. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for JetBlue Airways (of which 1 is a bit unpleasant!) you should know about.

JetBlue Airways is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of small cap companies at attractive valuations which insiders have been buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.