Despite an already strong run, Sleep Number Corporation (NASDAQ:SNBR) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 29% in the last thirty days. The bad news is that even after the stocks recovery in the last 30 days, shareholders are still underwater by about 4.4% over the last year.

Although its price has surged higher, it's still not a stretch to say that Sleep Number's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.2x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Specialty Retail industry in the United States, where the median P/S ratio is around 0.4x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

How Sleep Number Has Been Performing

Sleep Number could be doing better as its revenue has been going backwards lately while most other companies have been seeing positive revenue growth. Perhaps the market is expecting its poor revenue performance to improve, keeping the P/S from dropping. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on Sleep Number.

How Is Sleep Number's Revenue Growth Trending?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Sleep Number would need to produce growth that's similar to the industry.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 12%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk revenue by 17% in aggregate. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 2.2% each year as estimated by the five analysts watching the company. With the industry predicted to deliver 5.7% growth per year, the company is positioned for a weaker revenue result.

With this in mind, we find it intriguing that Sleep Number's P/S is closely matching its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

What Does Sleep Number's P/S Mean For Investors?

Its shares have lifted substantially and now Sleep Number's P/S is back within range of the industry median. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

When you consider that Sleep Number's revenue growth estimates are fairly muted compared to the broader industry, it's easy to see why we consider it unexpected to be trading at its current P/S ratio. When we see companies with a relatively weaker revenue outlook compared to the industry, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/S lower. A positive change is needed in order to justify the current price-to-sales ratio.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Sleep Number (2 are potentially serious) you should be aware of.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.