Warner Music Hit By Streaming Volatility And Execution Risks: Analyst
Warner Music Hit By Streaming Volatility And Execution Risks: Analyst
Warner Music Group will continue to benefit from secular tailwinds in the music industry (like pricing and increased penetration), which should drive longer-term growth, as the analyst states.BofA Securities analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich downgraded Warner Music Group Corp (NASDAQ:WMG) from Neutral to Underperform and lowered the price target from $33 to $30.
美林證券分析師Jessica Reif Ehrlich將華納音樂集團公司（納斯達克:WMG）的評級從中立調降至表現不佳，並將價格目標從33美元降至30美元。
The price target is approximately 12 times the calendar year 2025 OIBDA (previously 13 times the 2025 OIBDA). Given the analyst's better long-term growth outlook, the multiple represents an approximately 25% premium to its media and entertainment coverage universe.
價格目標約爲2025年日曆年OIBDA的12倍（先前爲2025年OIBDA的13倍）。鑑於分析師更好的長期增長前景，該多重倍數較其媒體和娛樂覆蓋範圍約高出25%。
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Warner Music Group will continue to benefit from secular tailwinds in the music industry (like pricing and increased penetration), which should drive longer-term growth, as the analyst states.
華納音樂集團將繼續受益於音樂行業的結構性順風，例如價格和增加的普及率，這應推動長期增長，正如分析師所述。
However, given the relative disappointment in emerging platforms in the industry, volatility in ad-supported streaming, greater variability in subscription streaming than may have been appreciated, and several 1 times items (like BMG Rights Management in fiscal 2024 and Digital service provider repricing in prior years), the longer term growth potential and visibility of the music labels may not be as significant and predictable as initially thought, she said.
然而，鑑於該行業新興平台的相對失望、廣告支持的流媒體的波動性、訂閱流媒體的變化性大於預期、以及若干1次性項目（例如2024財年的BMG Rights Management和之前幾年的數字服務提供商定價重定），音樂唱片公司的長期增長潛力和可見性可能並不像最初預計的那樣重要和可預測，她說。
This does not support as substantial of a premium valuation the labels currently trade at versus the analyst's Media & Entertainment coverage universe.
這不支持唱片公司目前與分析師的媒體和娛樂覆蓋範圍相比所交易的顯著溢價估值。
Ever since the arrival of Rob Kyncl as CEO, there have been numerous changes to the Warner Music Group organization, most recently by their expanded restructuring efforts, she said. This has led to the departure of several leaders with deep industry experience.
自首席執行官羅伯·金克爾到任以來，華納音樂集團組織已經進行了許多變革，最近是通過他們擴大的重組努力，她說。這導致了一些具有豐富行業經驗的領導人離職。
While the company's new strategic direction and focus on technology may be the correct path in the longer term, this magnitude of disruption to an organization also comes with execution risks, as per the analyst.
儘管公司的新戰略方向和對技術的關注在長期內可能是正確的道路，但組織的這種程度的混亂也帶來了執行風險，根據分析師說。
The analyst cut the fiscal fourth-quarter revenue to $1.57 billion (from $1.59 billion), reflecting lower Digital Streaming revenue, and reduced her fiscal fourth-quarter adjusted OIBDA estimates to $336 million (from $346 million). For fiscal 2025, the analyst lowered revenue to $6.63 billion (from $6.68 billion) and adjusted OIBDA to $1.49 billion (from $1.52 billion).
分析師將財務第四季度的營業收入下調至$15.7億（從$15.9億），反映數字流媒體營收下降，將財務第四季度調整後的OIBDA預估下調至$33600萬（從$34600萬）。對於2025年財政年度，分析師將營收預測下調至$66.3億（從$66.8億），調整後的OIBDA下調至$14.9億（從$15.2億）。
Price Action: WMG stock is down 2.72% at $31.00 at last check Friday.
價格走勢：WMG股票最新報價爲$31.00，最近一次查看下跌了2.72%。
Photo via Shutterstock
圖片來自shutterstock。
Also Read:
還閱讀：
- Warner Music Gains as Q3 Beats on Streaming, Analysts See Upside Potential
- 華納音樂在第三季度流媒體業績好於預期，分析師看到上行潛力。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。