Why S&P 500's Year-Long Overbought Signal Has This Expert Talking, Plus 3 Stocks To Watch
Why S&P 500's Year-Long Overbought Signal Has This Expert Talking, Plus 3 Stocks To Watch
Retail industry veteran Seth Golden recently warned that, according to a widely used oscillator Williams %R, the S&P 500 has been overbought for an entire year.
零售業老將塞斯·高登最近警告說，根據廣泛使用的威廉姆斯%R振盪器，標普500指數已經超買了整整一年。
Golden, a hedge fund consultant who previously worked for household names such as Target and now-defunct Bed Bath & Beyond, pointed out that this is just the 23rd time in history that this has occurred.
曾爲Target等知名公司工作並現已倒閉的Bed Bath＆Beyond的對沖基金顧問塞斯·高登指出，這在歷史上只發生過23次。
Based on historical data he shared in a post on X, he pointed out that when this happened, it continued the same trend for the rest of the year — posting a fourth-quarter median return of 5.29%.
根據他在X上發佈的歷史數據，他指出當這種情況發生時，接下來的一年都會延續相同的趨勢 —— 第四季度的中位數回報率爲5.29%。
Williams %R, often dubbed the Williams percent range, is a momentum indicator. It measures the overbought and oversold levels on a scale from 0 to 100. A reading above -20 is overbought and a reading below -80 is oversold.
威廉姆斯%R，常被稱爲威廉姆斯百分比區間，是一種動量指標。它通過一個0到100的範圍來衡量超買和超賣水平。讀數高於-20表示超買，讀數低於-80表示超賣。
Golden used a 28-month parameter, an industry standard for this indicator.
高登使用了一個28個月的參數，這是該指標的行業標準。
Looking deeper into the list of overbought stocks brings an interesting mix of domestic and foreign catalysts.
深入研究超買股票清單會帶來一個有趣的國內外混合動因。
Lockheed Martin's (NYSE:LMT) presence on this list is unsurprising. The leading aerospace and defense manufacturer's stock hit a fresh all-time high, reaching $609 and giving it a market cap of over $144B. The firm benefits from increased defense spending during escalating global conflicts and with a new multi-billion U.S. Navy contract it landed last Thursday. Despite a hefty $19.26B debt, the firm has the balance sheet to easily manage it, plus pay a reliable 2.1% dividend. Its Williams %R overbought score is currently -11.41.
洛克希德馬丁（NYSE：LMT）出現在這個名單上並不奇怪。這家領先的航空航天與國防制造商股價創下了新的歷史高點，達到609美元，使其市值超過1440億美元。該公司受益於全球衝突加劇期間增加的國防支出，並通過上週四簽訂的新的美國海軍多十億美元合同。儘管負債高達192.6億美元，但公司有資產負債表可以輕鬆管理，還能支付可靠的2.1%的股利。其威廉姆斯%R超買分數目前爲-11.41。
Next on the list is Lowe's Companies Inc (NYSE:LOW), a North Carolina-based retailer specializing in home improvement. It recently hit a new all-time high of $274.16. Along with other home improvement stocks, Lowe experienced a surge following the FED's rate cut. Still, this strong performance is surprising, given the firm's revenue decline of nearly 10% year over year and dimmed future growth projections. Its Williams %R overbought score is currently -5.71.
清單上接下來是總部位於北卡羅來納州的家居改造專家勞氏公司（NYSE：LOW）。其股價最近創下新的歷史高點，爲274.16美元。與其他家居改造股一樣，勞氏在聯儲局減息後迎來了一波漲勢。儘管其營業收入同比下降近10％，未來增長預期黯淡，但其強勁表現令人驚訝。其威廉姆斯%R超買分數目前爲-5.71。
Entergy Corp (NYSE:ETR) has been a utility industry standout, delivering an almost 30% return year-to-date. Despite such numbers, the stock trades at a reasonable P/E ratio of 15.9x, below some of its peers like Exelon or FirstEnergy.
安特吉公司（紐交所：ETR）一直是公用事業行業的佼佼者，全年淨收益近30%。儘管這些數字令人印象深刻，該股票的市盈率僅爲15.9倍，低於一些同行如愛克斯龍或第一能源。
Entergy provides electric power to the southern U.S. states, benefiting from rapid energy growth in states such as Texas. Investors expect the company to scale with its target market, with a booming population and increased industrial activity prompting higher energy consumption. The stock's Williams %R overbought score currently stands at -7.41.
安特吉公司爲美國南部各州提供電力，得益於德克薩斯等州能源迅速增長。投資者預計該公司將隨着目標市場擴大規模，隨着人口激增和增加的工業活動促使能源消耗增加。該股票的威廉姆斯％R超買分數目前爲-7.41。
Photo: Shutterstock
Photo: shutterstock
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。