Bitcoin 'Tends To Lag Gold By A Few Months' And Is Destined For Upside, Says Expert
Bitcoin 'Tends To Lag Gold By A Few Months' And Is Destined For Upside, Says Expert
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, sees a bullish outlook for Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) driven by improving macro conditions and the impact of spot ETFs.
Capriole Investments創始人Charles Edwards看好比特幣(CRYPTO: BTC)的前景,這主要受到宏觀條件的改善和現貨etf的影響。
What Happened: In an interview on the Blockworks Macro podcast, Edwards highlighted that the market is at "the exact opposite point" of November 2021, when the Fed began aggressive rate hikes.
事件回顧:在Blockworks Macro播客節目上接受採訪時,Edwards指出市場正處於2021年11月的「完全相反的階段」,當時聯儲局開始大幅加息。
Edwards pointed to several bullish indicators, including Bitcoin's strong correlation with US liquidity measures and gold's recent breakout to new highs. "Bitcoin tends to lag gold by a few months," he highlighted, suggesting Bitcoin could follow gold's upward trajectory.
Edwards指出了幾個利好因子,包括比特幣與美國流動性指標和黃金最近突破新高之間的強相關性。他強調:「比特幣往往會滯後於黃金幾個月」,暗示比特幣可能會追隨黃金的上升軌跡。
While Bitcoin has underperformed recently, Edwards attributes this to idiosyncratic factors like Mt. Gox-related selling pressure. He believes these headwinds are largely behind us, setting the stage for potential gains.
儘管比特幣最近表現不佳,但Edwards將此歸因於像Mt. Gox相關的拋售壓力等特定因素。他認爲這些逆風大部分已經過去,爲潛在收益打下了基礎。
For market signals, Edwards will be closely watching Fed policy shifts and normalized on-chain metrics in the coming months. He concludes: "I think the downside is, at least in the near term, pretty capped."
對於市場信號,Edwards將密切關注聯儲局的政策轉變以及未來幾個月內鏈指標的正常化。他總結說:「我認爲下行風險,至少在短期內,受到了相當的限制。」
At a recent appearance, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that future interest rate cuts would depend on economic data.
在最近的一次露面中,聯儲局主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾表示,未來的利率調整取決於經濟數據。
He added that the inflation is on a sustainable path back to 2%, and the recent 50-basis point rate cut shows growing confidence in the goal. Regarding any future rate cuts, he said it can happen slower or faster depending on how the economy moves and reacts.
他補充說,通脹正穩步回歸2%,最近減息50個點子顯示出對該目標信心的增強。關於任何未來的減息,他表示可能會根據經濟的動向和反應速度而有所放緩或加快。
Also Read: Bitcoin Halving Cycle Signals Potential 2024 Rally, Canaccord Analysts Predict
也可參考:比特幣減半週期信號2024年潛在的大漲,加拿大道明證券分析師預測
Why It Matters:Edwards remains optimistic about spot Bitcoin ETFs, comparing their potential impact to gold ETFs launched in 2004. However, he cautions that on-chain metrics have become less reliable due to the shift of Bitcoin into ETFs, stating: "I now think that's not really so relevant because of what I'm about to talk about with ETFs."
爲什麼重要:愛德華茲對現貨比特幣 etf 表現持樂觀態度,將其潛在影響與2004年推出的黃金 etf 相比。但他警告稱,由於比特幣轉向 etf,鏈上指標變得不太可靠,他表示:「我現在認爲這並不是很相關,因爲接下來我將要談論 etf 的內容。」
Recent statistics indicate remarkable inflows of $20.9 billion into iShares Bitcoin Trust (NASDAQ:IBIT) this year, accounting for a whopping 98.63% of its Assets under management.
最近的統計數據顯示,iShares 比特幣信託(納斯達克:IBIT)今年吸引了209億美元的龐大資金流入,佔其資產管理總額的驚人98.63%。
Looking ahead, Edwards sees central banks potentially holding Bitcoin alongside gold within 5-10 years. He notes: "The way that central banks hold gold today, they will at least be holding some Bitcoin."
展望未來,愛德華茲認爲,在5-10年內,各國央行可能會持有比特幣,並將其與黃金並列。 他指出:「如同各國央行如今持有黃金一樣,他們至少將持有一些比特幣。」
What's Next: The influence of Bitcoin as an institutional asset class is expected to be thoroughly explored at Benzinga's upcoming Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.
接下來:比特幣作爲機構資產類別的影響力預計將在Benzinga即將到來的數字資產未來活動中得到徹底探討。日期是11月19日。
- Bitcoin Is 'Gold With A Leverage,' Says Expert Who Sees US Government In Big Trouble Over Debt Burden
- 比特幣專家表示,比特幣是帶有槓桿的黃金,認爲美國政府因債務負擔而陷入嚴重困境。
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譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。