BofA Securities reiterates a "Buy" rating on $Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU.US)$ with a price target of $90.00, lifting the target P/E multiple from 16x to 18x.
BofA Securities highlights the following points:
Positive Policies: Following a positive policy surprise, the potential for asset reallocation after Fed rate cuts, along with the recent HK market rally, could further boost the company's client asset inflows and trading activities. As a result, the target P/E multiple has been raised to 18x for 2024-2026 earnings estimates.
Mitigation Levers for Fed rate cuts: In 2Q24, Futu guided that every 25bp rate cut would lower its pre-tax operating profit by HKD 5-8 million per month, which aligns with estimates. BofA Securities' model factors in 250bp in Fed rate cuts during 3Q24-4Q25, but Futu Holdings is expected to mitigate these impacts through 10% growth in client assets, a 1.0x increase in trading velocity, or a 0.6bp increase in commission rate.
Price Objective Risk:
Upside risks: better-than-expected capital market condition, lower-than-expected competition and faster-than-expected client growth.
Downside risks: stricter-than-expected regulation, major downturn in US/HK and intensified competition.
美銀證券重申對富途控股的「買入」評級，將目標市盈率從16倍上調至18倍，目標價格定爲90.00美元。
美銀證券指出以下亮點：
積極的政策：在政策超預期利好的背景下，聯儲局減息後可能出現的資產重新配置，以及最近香港市場的反彈，可能進一步推動公司的客戶資產流入和交易活動。因此，2024-2026年的盈利預測市盈率目標上調至18倍。
應對聯儲局減息的措施：在2024年第二季度，富途指出，每減息25個點子，稅前經營利潤將每月減少500萬至800萬港元，與預期一致。美銀證券的模型預計在2024年第三季度至2025年第四季度期間，聯儲局將減息250個點子，但富途控股預計通過客戶資產增長10%、交易速度提升1倍或佣金率上升0.6個點子來緩解這些影響。
目標價風險：
