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Is Whirlpool (NYSE:WHR) A Risky Investment?

Is Whirlpool (NYSE:WHR) A Risky Investment?

惠而浦(紐交所:WHR)是一個風險投資嗎?
Simply Wall St ·  09/24 19:35

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that Whirlpool Corporation (NYSE:WHR) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

傳奇基金經理李錄(得到了查理·芒格的支持)曾經說過:「最大的投資風險不是價格波動,而是您是否會遭受到資本的永久損失。」 當我們考慮一家公司有多大風險時,我們總是喜歡看看它的債務使用情況,因爲債務過載可能導致毀滅。 我們注意到惠而浦公司(紐交所:WHR)的資產負債表上確實有債務。 但更重要的問題是:這些債務產生了多大風險?

When Is Debt Dangerous?

債務何時有危險?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

一般來說,當一家公司無法通過籌集資本或利用自己的現金流輕鬆償還債務時,債務才會成爲真正的問題。如果情況變得真的很糟,借款人可以控制企業。然而,一種更常見(但仍很痛苦)的情況是,它必須以低價籌集新的股權資本,從而永久地稀釋股東。當然,債務的好處在於它通常代表着廉價資本,尤其是在代替具有高回報率再投資能力的公司時。考慮一家企業使用多少債務最重要的第一步是查看其現金和債務的情況。

What Is Whirlpool's Debt?

惠而浦的債務是多少?

As you can see below, Whirlpool had US$7.44b of debt, at June 2024, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, because it has a cash reserve of US$1.18b, its net debt is less, at about US$6.26b.

如下所示,惠而浦在2024年6月有74.4億美元的債務,與前一年大致相同。您可以點擊圖表以獲取更詳細信息。 然而,由於它有11.8億美元的現金儲備,其淨債務更少,大約爲62.6億美元。

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NYSE:WHR Debt to Equity History September 24th 2024
紐交所:WHR債務股本比歷史數據於2024年9月24日

How Strong Is Whirlpool's Balance Sheet?

惠而浦的資產負債表有多強?

According to the last reported balance sheet, Whirlpool had liabilities of US$6.13b due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$7.86b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$1.18b as well as receivables valued at US$1.60b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$11.2b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

根據最近披露的資產負債表,惠而浦在12個月內到期的負債爲613億美元,超過12個月到期的負債爲786億美元。 抵消這些義務,它手頭有118億美元現金以及價值160億美元的應收賬款在12個月內到期。 因此,其負債總計超過現金和短期應收賬款的結合達1120億美元。

The deficiency here weighs heavily on the US$5.62b company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. After all, Whirlpool would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.

這裏的不足嚴重影響了562億美元的公司本身,就像一個孩子在揹負着滿是書籍、體育器材和小號的巨大揹包下掙扎一樣。 因此,毫無疑問,我們會密切關注其資產負債表。 畢竟,如果惠而浦今天必須償還債務,很可能需要進行一次重大再資本化。

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

通過查看公司的淨債務與利息、稅、折舊、攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)之比以及它的利息費用(利息覆蓋率)可以衡量一個公司的債務負擔與收益能力。因此,我們考慮將債務與有無計算折舊和攤銷費用的收益相對比。

Whirlpool has a rather high debt to EBITDA ratio of 5.0 which suggests a meaningful debt load. But the good news is that it boasts fairly comforting interest cover of 2.6 times, suggesting it can responsibly service its obligations. More concerning, Whirlpool saw its EBIT drop by 7.2% in the last twelve months. If that earnings trend continues the company will face an uphill battle to pay off its debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Whirlpool's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

惠而浦的債務與EBITDA比率相對較高,達到5.0,這表明負債較重。 但好消息是,它擁有相當令人放心的利息覆蓋率,達到2.6倍,表明其可以負責任地履行義務。 更令人擔憂的是,過去十二個月中,惠而浦的EBIT下降了7.2%。 如果這種盈利趨勢持續下去,公司將面臨償還債務的嚴峻挑戰。 在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是明顯的起點。 但更重要的是,未來的盈利,超過任何其他因素,將決定惠而浦未來維持健康資產負債表的能力。 因此,如果你關注未來,可以查看這份展示分析師盈利預測的免費報告。

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. In the last three years, Whirlpool's free cash flow amounted to 42% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That weak cash conversion makes it more difficult to handle indebtedness.

但我們最後的考慮也很重要,因爲一家公司不能用紙面利潤支付債務;它需要冰冷的現金。 因此,值得查看多少EBIT由自由現金流支持。 在過去三年中,惠而浦的自由現金流佔其EBIT的比例爲42%,低於預期。 這種較弱的現金轉換使得更難處理負債。

Our View

我們的觀點

On the face of it, Whirlpool's net debt to EBITDA left us tentative about the stock, and its level of total liabilities was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But at least its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow is not so bad. After considering the datapoints discussed, we think Whirlpool has too much debt. That sort of riskiness is ok for some, but it certainly doesn't float our boat. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Whirlpool (of which 1 is significant!) you should know about.

乍一看,惠而浦的純負債與息稅折舊攤銷前利潤之比使我們對股票持謹慎態度,其總負債水平並不比一年中最繁忙的夜晚空無一人的餐館更令人心動。但至少它將息稅折舊攤銷前利潤轉化爲自由現金流的表現並不算太糟。在考慮了所討論的數據點之後,我們認爲惠而浦負債過多。這種風險對於一些人來說可能沒問題,但肯定不是我們的菜。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中了解最多關於債務的情況。然而,並非所有的投資風險都存在於資產負債表中 - 這離真相還很遠。這些風險可能很難發現。每家公司都有這些風險,我們已經發現了惠而浦的3個警示信號(其中1個是重要的!)您應該知道。

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

當然,如果您是那種喜歡購買沒有債務負擔的股票的投資者,那麼不要猶豫,立即發現我們獨家的淨現金增長股票列表。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


以上內容僅用作資訊或教育之目的,不構成與富途相關的任何投資建議。富途竭力但無法保證上述全部內容的真實性、準確性和原創性。
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