Results: MillerKnoll, Inc. Delivered A Surprise Loss And Now Analysts Have New Forecasts
Results: MillerKnoll, Inc. Delivered A Surprise Loss And Now Analysts Have New Forecasts
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that MillerKnoll's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 4.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 11% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 6.6% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than MillerKnoll. It's been a sad week for MillerKnoll, Inc. (NASDAQ:MLKN), who've watched their investment drop 13% to US$23.50 in the week since the company reported its first-quarter result. Revenues fell 3.1% short of expectations, at US$862m. Earnings correspondingly dipped, with MillerKnoll reporting a statutory loss of US$0.02 per share, whereas the analysts had previously modelled a profit in this period. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
MillerKnoll, Inc.（納斯達克股票代碼：MLKN）這一週對他們來說是悲傷的一週，他們看到他們的投資下跌了13%，跌至23.50美元，公司公佈第一季度業績以來的一週。營業收入也比預期低了3.1%，達到了86200萬美元。盈利相應下降，MillerKnoll報告了每股0.02美元的法定虧損，而分析師之前預測該時期會有盈利。對投資者來說這是一個重要時刻，他們可以追蹤公司在報告中的表現，查看專家對明年的預測，並看看業務預期是否有任何變化。因此，我們收集了最新的盈利後預測，以了解明年的預估情況。
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for MillerKnoll from four analysts is for revenues of US$3.69b in 2025. If met, it would imply a modest 3.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 82% to US$1.68. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$3.67b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.95 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the substantial drop in new EPS forecasts.
考慮到最新的結果，四位分析師對MillerKnoll的最新一致意見是預計2025年營業收入將達到369億美元。如果達成，將意味着過去12個月其營業收入將略有增長，增長率爲3.3%。法定每股收益預計將跳漲82%，達到1.68美元。然而，在最新的盈利數據公佈之前，分析師原本預期2025年的營業收入爲367億美元，每股收益（EPS）爲1.95美元。所以在最新的結果公佈後，預測情緒明顯有所下降，尤其是新的每股收益預測大幅下滑。
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 5.7% to US$33.00, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on MillerKnoll, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$38.00 and the most bearish at US$28.00 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await MillerKnoll shareholders.
也許會讓人驚訝的是，市場一致預期的股價目標下調了5.7%，至33.00美元，分析師明顯將預期收益的下降與股價表現聯繫在一起。然而從這些數據中我們還可以得出其他結論，有些投資者在評估分析師的股價預期時也喜歡考慮預期間的差異。關於MillerKnoll，市場存在一些不同的看法，最看好的分析師對其估值爲每股38.00美元，而最看淡的則爲每股28.00美元。分析師對這家公司的看法確實存在差異，但在我們看來，預期間的差異不足以預示着極端的結果可能會降臨MillerKnoll的股東。
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that MillerKnoll's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 4.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 11% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 6.6% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than MillerKnoll.
我們可以從更大的背景來看待這些預測，比如將預測與過去的業績進行比較，以及預測相對於行業內其他公司是否更加看好。很明顯，預計米勒諾爾的營收增長將大幅放緩，到2025年底，預計年增長率爲4.4%。與過去五年的歷史增長率11%相比，這是一個很大的差異。 將其與行業內其他公司（具有分析師預測）進行比較，預計這些公司的年度營收增長率爲6.6%。因此，雖然預計營收增長將放緩，但整個行業也預計比米勒諾爾增速更快。
The Bottom Line
最重要的事情是分析師增加了它對下一年每股虧損的估計。令人欣慰的是，營收預測未發生重大變化，業務仍有望比整個行業增長更快。共識價格目標穩定在28.50美元，最新估計不足以對價格目標產生影響。
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for MillerKnoll. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of MillerKnoll's future valuation.
最大的擔憂是分析師下調了每股收益預測，表明米勒諾爾可能面臨業績困境。 另一方面，對營收預測沒有進行重大變化；儘管預測表明它們的表現將不如整個行業。 一致的價格目標顯著下降，分析師似乎對最新結果不放心，導致對米勒諾爾未來估值的更低預期。
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple MillerKnoll analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
謹記，長期業務軌跡對投資者來說更加重要。我們有多個米勒諾爾分析師提供的2026年的預測，您可以在我們的平台上免費查看。
It is also worth noting that we have found 3 warning signs for MillerKnoll (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that you need to take into consideration.
值得注意的是，我們爲米勒諾爾發現了3個風險信號（其中1個讓我們有點不舒服！）這些信號需要您考慮進去。
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