Graham Holdings Company's (NYSE:GHC) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 26x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 18x and even P/E's below 10x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.
For instance, Graham Holdings' receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Graham Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow.
Is There Enough Growth For Graham Holdings?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, Graham Holdings would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the market.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 34% decrease to the company's bottom line. As a result, earnings from three years ago have also fallen 72% overall. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.
In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 15% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.
With this information, we find it concerning that Graham Holdings is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
What We Can Learn From Graham Holdings' P/E?
While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.
Our examination of Graham Holdings revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
There are also other vital risk factors to consider and we've discovered 2 warning signs for Graham Holdings (1 is potentially serious!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Graham Holdings. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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