Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s (NYSE:CMG) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 55.3x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 18x and even P/E's below 10x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.
Chipotle Mexican Grill certainly has been doing a good job lately as its earnings growth has been positive while most other companies have been seeing their earnings go backwards. The P/E is probably high because investors think the company will continue to navigate the broader market headwinds better than most. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
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Is There Enough Growth For Chipotle Mexican Grill?
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as steep as Chipotle Mexican Grill's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market decidedly.
If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 27%. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 146% overall rise in EPS, aided by its short-term performance. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been superb for the company.
Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 20% each year as estimated by the analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to only expand by 10% each year, which is noticeably less attractive.
With this information, we can see why Chipotle Mexican Grill is trading at such a high P/E compared to the market. Apparently shareholders aren't keen to offload something that is potentially eyeing a more prosperous future.
What We Can Learn From Chipotle Mexican Grill's P/E?
Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.
As we suspected, our examination of Chipotle Mexican Grill's analyst forecasts revealed that its superior earnings outlook is contributing to its high P/E. At this stage investors feel the potential for a deterioration in earnings isn't great enough to justify a lower P/E ratio. It's hard to see the share price falling strongly in the near future under these circumstances.
The company's balance sheet is another key area for risk analysis. Our free balance sheet analysis for Chipotle Mexican Grill with six simple checks will allow you to discover any risks that could be an issue.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Chipotle Mexican Grill, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
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