Auto Sector Anticipates Boost In Quarter Three: RHB
Auto Sector Anticipates Boost In Quarter Three: RHB
Looking ahead, the sector is projected to face a cyclical downturn in sales volume, with a forecasted 8% year-on-year decline in the second half of the year. The anticipated impact of electric vehicles (EVs) remains limited due to high pricing and the current RM100,000 floor on Completely Built Units (CBUs). Unless more affordable locally assembled EVs are introduced or the price floor is lifted by the end of 2025, the effect on TIV is expected to be minimal.The automotive sector's 2Q24 performance largely aligned with forecasts, with Sime Darby (SIME), Bermaz Auto (BAUTO), and MBM Resources (MBM) meeting expectations. However, Tan Chong Motor (TCM) underperformed, with widening losses attributed to declining sales volumes. SIME reported a 14% increase in earnings, bolstered by its industrial segment and the integration of UMW's numbers. In contrast, MBM and Bauto experienced a decline in results quarter-on-quarter, which was anticipated due to the traditionally weaker 2Q24 sales. TCM's difficulties stemmed from reduced demand for its vehicle models, leading to a less favourable performance.
汽車行業24年第二季度的表現與預期基本一致，森達比（SIME）、Bermaz Auto（BAUTO）和mBM Resources（MBM）均達到預期。但是，新創汽車（TCM）表現不佳，虧損擴大歸因於銷量下降。SIME報告稱，受其工業板塊和UMW數字整合的推動，收益增長了14％。相比之下，mBm和Bauto的業績同比下降，這是由於傳統上第二季度銷售疲軟所致。TCM的困難源於對其車型的需求減少，導致性能不佳。
RHB Stock Broking House maintains a NEUTRAL stance on the sector, despite upward revisions to the 2024 Full-Year Total Industry Volume (TIV), now forecasted at 790,000 units, up from 740,000 units. This adjustment reflects expectations of a stronger 3Q24, driven by improved sales volumes from Perodua and Proton, which reported year-on-year growth of 14% and 13% respectively in July. However, TIV is anticipated to normalise in the second half of 2024, potentially showing weaker figures compared to the first half.
儘管對2024年全年行業總成交量（TIV）進行了上調，但印度興業銀行股票經紀公司仍對該行業保持中立立場，目前的預測爲79萬套，高於74萬套。這一調整反映了對24年第三季度走強的預期，這得益於Perodua和Proton的銷量增加。寶騰在7月份分別報告同比增長14％和13％。但是，預計TIV將在2024年下半年恢復正常，與上半年相比，這一數字可能會有所減弱。
The auto sector faces challenges as major manufacturers, such as Perodua and Toyota, report reductions in their order backlogs. Perodua's backlog has decreased to 100,000 from 128,000 units, while Toyota's has dropped to 20,000 from 28,000 units. Despite this, Perodua's year-to-date sales growth of 17% suggests it may achieve a record high in sales volume for 2024, leading to a revised sales assumption of 345,000 units for the national carmaker.
汽車行業面臨挑戰，因爲Perodua和豐田等主要製造商報告其訂單積壓有所減少。Perodua的積壓量已從12.8萬輛減少到10萬輛，而豐田的積壓量已從28,000輛降至2萬輛。儘管如此，Perodua今年迄今爲止的銷量增長了17％，這表明其2024年的銷量可能會創下歷史新高，這導致這家全國汽車製造商的銷售假設修訂爲34.5萬輛。
Looking ahead, the sector is projected to face a cyclical downturn in sales volume, with a forecasted 8% year-on-year decline in the second half of the year. The anticipated impact of electric vehicles (EVs) remains limited due to high pricing and the current RM100,000 floor on Completely Built Units (CBUs). Unless more affordable locally assembled EVs are introduced or the price floor is lifted by the end of 2025, the effect on TIV is expected to be minimal.
展望未來，該行業的銷售量預計將面臨週期性下降，預計下半年將同比下降8％。由於價格高昂以及目前完全建成單元（CBU）的10萬令吉下限，電動汽車（EV）的預期影響仍然有限。除非在2025年底之前推出更實惠的本地組裝電動汽車或提高最低價格，否則對TIV的影響預計將微乎其微。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
