The Five-year Returns Have Been Decent for Newmont (NYSE:NEM) Shareholders Despite Underlying Losses Increasing
The Five-year Returns Have Been Decent for Newmont (NYSE:NEM) Shareholders Despite Underlying Losses Increasing
The main point of investing for the long term is to make money. Better yet, you'd like to see the share price move up more than the market average. Unfortunately for shareholders, while the Newmont Corporation (NYSE:NEM) share price is up 33% in the last five years, that's less than the market return. However, more recent buyers should be happy with the increase of 31% over the last year.
長期投資的主要目的是賺錢。 更好的是，您希望看到股價上漲超過市場平均水平。 不幸的是，儘管紐曼礦業公司（紐交所：NEM）的股價在過去五年上漲了33％，但低於市場回報。 然而，最近的買家應該對過去一年中31％的增長感到高興。
The past week has proven to be lucrative for Newmont investors, so let's see if fundamentals drove the company's five-year performance.
過去一週對紐曼礦業的投資者來說是有利可圖的，因此讓我們看看公司五年的表現是否受到基本面的推動。
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
禾倫·巴菲特在他的文章《格雷厄姆與多德維爾的超級投資者》中描述了股票價格並不總是合理地反映了一家企業的價值。考慮市場對一家公司的看法如何轉變的一種不完美但簡單的方法，是將每股收益（EPS）的變化與股價的動態進行比較。
We know that Newmont has been profitable in the past. However, it made a loss in the last twelve months, suggesting profit may be an unreliable metric at this stage. So we might find other metrics can better explain the share price movements.
我們知道紐曼礦業過去是盈利的。 但是，在過去十二個月中出現虧損，這表明利潤在當前階段可能不是可靠的指標。 因此，我們可能會發現其他指標可以更好地解釋股價的變動。
The modest 1.9% dividend yield is unlikely to be propping up the share price. In contrast revenue growth of 6.2% per year is probably viewed as evidence that Newmont is growing, a real positive. In that case, the company may be sacrificing current earnings per share to drive growth.
1.9％的微不足道的股息收益率不太可能支撐股價。 相比之下，每年6.2％的營收增長可能被視爲紐曼礦業正在增長的證據，這是一個真正的積極信號。 在這種情況下，公司可能會犧牲當前每股收益來推動增長。
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
下圖顯示了收益和營收隨時間變化的情況（如果你點擊圖像，可以看到更多細節）：
Newmont is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. You can see what analysts are predicting for Newmont in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
紐曼礦業爲投資者所熟知，許多聰明的分析師嘗試預測未來的利潤水平。 您可以在這個交互式的未來利潤預估圖表中看到分析師們對紐曼礦業的預測。
What About Dividends?
那麼分紅怎麼樣呢？
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Newmont, it has a TSR of 56% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
除衡量股價回報外，投資者還應考慮股東總回報（TSR）。 TSR包括任何分拆或折價增資的價值，以及任何分紅，基於假設分紅再投資。 因此，對於支付豐厚股息的公司，TSR往往比股價回報要高得多。 在紐曼礦業的情況下，過去5年的TSR爲56%。 這超過了我們之前提到的股價回報。 公司支付的分紅因此提升了股東總回報。
A Different Perspective
不同的觀點
We're pleased to report that Newmont shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 35% over one year. Of course, that includes the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 9%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Newmont (1 is a bit concerning) that you should be aware of.
我們很高興地報告，紐曼礦業股東在過去一年中獲得了總體股東回報率爲35%。當然，這包括了分紅派息。這一收益優於過去五年的年度股東回報率9%。因此，近期對該公司的情緒似乎是積極的。持樂觀態度的人可能會將最近的股東回報率改善解釋爲公司本身隨着時間的推移而變得更好。我發現長期觀察股價作爲業務績效的一種代理很有趣。但要真正獲得洞察，我們也需要考慮其他信息。例如，我們已經確定了紐曼礦業的2個警示信號（其中1個有點令人擔憂），您應該注意。
We will like Newmont better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.
如果我們看到一些大規模內部買入，我們會更喜歡紐曼礦業。在等待的同時，不妨查看這份免費的未被充分重視的股票清單（大多是小市值股票），其中有相當多近期由內部人員購買。
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
請注意，本文所引述的市場回報反映了目前在美國交易所上市的股票的市場加權平均回報。
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這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論，只使用公正的方法論，我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議，也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意，我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。
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