Retail Sale Slowdown Points To Cautious Sentiment
Retail Sale Slowdown Points To Cautious Sentiment
For the first seven months of the year, Malaysia's distributive trade sales increased by 6.0%, supported by a 9.3% yoy rise in motor vehicle sales, alongside continued growth in retail trade (+6.3% yoy) and wholesale trade (+4.8% yoy). However, projections suggest that retail trade will grow by 5.0% for the full year, a more modest increase compared to 9.0% in 2023. The slower growth outlook reflects a combination of factors, including rising income and employment levels, the recovery in tourist arrivals, and government policy measures such as increased cash assistance for the B40 income group.Malaysia's retail sales continued to grow in July 2024, albeit at a slower pace, as the country's domestic spending saw a sustainable increase. According to the latest report, the retail trade grew by 6.4% year-on-year (yoy), marking a slight moderation compared to previous months. However, overall distributive trade expanded by 6.7% yoy, supported by encouraging sales in motor vehicles and wholesale trade, which rose by 12.2% and 5.5% yoy, respectively.
由於國內支出持續增長，馬來西亞的零售額在2024年7月繼續增長，儘管增速有所放緩。根據最新報告，零售貿易同比增長6.4％，與前幾個月相比略有放緩。但是，分銷貿易整體同比增長6.7％，這得益於機動車和批發貿易的鼓勵銷售，分別同比增長12.2％和5.5％。
In seasonally-adjusted terms, the volume of distributive trade posted a 5.3% yoy increase, up from 4.3% in June. This growth was particularly driven by a rebound in motor vehicle sales, which saw an 8.7% yoy rise following a slight decline in June, as well as stronger growth in wholesale trade, which grew by 5.1% compared to 3.1% in June.
經季節性調整後，分銷貿易量同比增長5.3％，高於6月份的4.3％。這一增長尤其受到機動車銷量的反彈的推動，繼6月份略有下降之後，汽車銷量同比增長8.7％，以及批發貿易的強勁增長，與6月份的3.1％相比增長了5.1％。
Improved Airport Passenger Movements
改善機場乘客流量
The recovery in air travel continued to show positive momentum, contributing to the overall economic outlook. As of the first seven months of the year (7MCY24), Malaysia Airports Holdings Berhad (MAHB) recorded a recovery rate of 88.5% compared to 2019 levels. This was largely driven by increased domestic passenger movements, which reached 85.2% of pre-pandemic levels, and the continued recovery in international travellers, now at 91.6% of 2019 figures.
航空旅行的復甦繼續顯示出積極的勢頭，爲整體經濟前景做出了貢獻。截至今年的前七個月（7MCY24），與2019年的水平相比，馬來西亞機場控股有限公司（MAHB）的復甦率爲88.5％。這主要是由國內客運量的增加（達到疫情前水平的85.2％）以及國際旅客的持續復甦（目前爲2019年數字的91.6％）所推動。
Retail Trade Expected to Grow by 5.0% in 2024
預計2024年零售貿易將增長5.0％
For the first seven months of the year, Malaysia's distributive trade sales increased by 6.0%, supported by a 9.3% yoy rise in motor vehicle sales, alongside continued growth in retail trade (+6.3% yoy) and wholesale trade (+4.8% yoy). However, projections suggest that retail trade will grow by 5.0% for the full year, a more modest increase compared to 9.0% in 2023. The slower growth outlook reflects a combination of factors, including rising income and employment levels, the recovery in tourist arrivals, and government policy measures such as increased cash assistance for the B40 income group.
今年前七個月，馬來西亞的分銷貿易銷售額增長了6.0％，這得益於機動車銷量同比增長9.3％，以及零售貿易（同比增長6.3％）和批發貿易（同比增長4.8％）的持續增長。但是，預測表明，全年零售貿易將增長5.0％，與2023年的9.0％相比，增幅更爲溫和。增長前景放緩反映了多種因素，包括收入和就業水平的提高、遊客人數的恢復以及政府政策措施，例如增加對B40收入群體的現金援助。
Challenges Ahead: Consumer Sentiment and Rising Costs
未來的挑戰：消費者信心和成本上漲
Despite the positive growth trends, consumer sentiment remains cautious due to concerns over rising living costs and policy changes. While core CPI inflation stayed stable at around 1.9% yoy from April to July 2024, consumers continue to highlight increasing prices as a key concern. The government's plans to further rationalise subsidy allocations, particularly a shift to targeted subsidies for RON95 fuel, may also weigh on consumer confidence.
儘管出現積極的增長趨勢，但由於對生活成本上漲和政策變化的擔憂，消費者信心仍然謹慎。儘管從2024年4月到7月，核心消費者價格指數同比通脹率穩定在1.9％左右，但消費者繼續強調價格上漲是主要問題。政府進一步合理分配補貼的計劃，特別是轉向 RON95 燃料的定向補貼，也可能打壓消費者的信心。
Additionally, there are signs of a slowdown in personal loans and credit card loans, which grew at more moderate rates of 4.4% yoy and 7.8% yoy, respectively, in July, in line with the more measured growth in retail trade.
此外，有跡象表明個人貸款和信用卡貸款放緩，7月份個人貸款和信用卡貸款同比增長較爲溫和，分別爲4.4％和7.8％，這與零售貿易更爲謹慎的增長一致。
Looking ahead, the positive labour market conditions, higher tourist arrivals, and flexible access to retirement funds are expected to continue supporting the distributive trade sector. However, the broader outlook will depend on how consumer sentiment evolves in response to rising costs and government policy decisions.
展望未來，積極的勞動力市場狀況、更高的遊客人數和靈活的退休金獲得渠道預計將繼續支持分銷貿易部門。但是，更廣泛的前景將取決於消費者情緒如何演變，以應對成本上漲和政府政策決策。
Source: MIDF
Title: Retail Sales Continued to Grow Albeit Moderating to +6.4%yoy in Aug-24
資料來源：MIDF
標題：儘管8月24日零售額放緩至同比增長6.4％，但仍繼續增長
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。