While not a mind-blowing move, it is good to see that the Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation (NASDAQ:ADPT) share price has gained 20% in the last three months. But will that heal all the wounds inflicted over 5 years of declines? Unlikely. Like a ship taking on water, the share price has sunk 90% in that time. While the recent increase might be a green shoot, we're certainly hesitant to rejoice. The important question is if the business itself justifies a higher share price in the long term. While a drop like that is definitely a body blow, money isn't as important as health and happiness.

Since Adaptive Biotechnologies has shed US$52m from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.

Adaptive Biotechnologies wasn't profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one would hope for good top-line growth to make up for the lack of earnings.

In the last half decade, Adaptive Biotechnologies saw its revenue increase by 18% per year. That's well above most other pre-profit companies. So it's not at all clear to us why the share price sunk 14% throughout that time. You'd have to assume the market is worried that profits won't come soon enough. We'd recommend carefully checking for indications of future growth - and balance sheet threats - before considering a purchase.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

Take a more thorough look at Adaptive Biotechnologies' financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.

A Different Perspective

Adaptive Biotechnologies shareholders are down 28% for the year, but the market itself is up 23%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, longer term shareholders are suffering worse, given the loss of 14% doled out over the last five years. We would want clear information suggesting the company will grow, before taking the view that the share price will stabilize. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Adaptive Biotechnologies you should know about.

We will like Adaptive Biotechnologies better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.