Betting On Biodiesel And Oleo For Catalysts
Betting On Biodiesel And Oleo For Catalysts
The plantation sector's performance for 2QCY24 showed mixed results, with five companies meeting expectations, one falling short, and three exceeding projections. The overall earnings were driven by strong crop yields and elevated crude palm oil (CPO) prices, which ranged between RM3,834 to RM4,129 per metric tonne (Mt). The average selling price (ASP) of CPO strengthened to RM4,038/Mt, marking a 1.4% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 5.0% rise year-on-year. Analysts have adjusted their sector profit forecasts by +3% for FY24E, FY25E, and FY26F due to improved demand for derivative products, notably oleochemicals and biodiesel.
種植業在 2QCY24 上的表現好壞參半，有五家公司達到預期，一家未達預期，三家公司超出預期。整體收益是由強勁的農作物產量和粗棕櫚油（CPO）價格上漲推動的，價格在每公噸（Mt）3,834令吉至4,129令吉之間。CPO的平均銷售價格（ASP）升至4,038令吉/噸，同比增長1.4％，同比增長5.0％。由於對衍生產品（尤其是油脂化學品和生物柴油）的需求增加，分析師將 FY24E、FY25E 和 FY26F 的行業利潤預測調整了3％。
In terms of analyst calls, MIDF Stock Broking House maintains a NEUTRAL stance on the plantation sector, highlighting the continuing role of the upstream division as a key pillar for integrated players. Both IOI Corporation and Ta Ann remain as top picks, with BUY calls and target prices of RM4.50 and RM4.16, respectively. IOI Corp stands out for its strong production growth and lowest cost of production among peers, while Ta Ann is noted for its correlation with CPO price movements, making it a potential trading opportunity in response to CPO price increases due to prolonged dry weather.
在分析師電話會議上，MIDF Stock Broking House對種植業保持中立立場，這凸顯了上游部門作爲綜合參與者的關鍵支柱的持續作用。IOI Corporation和Ta Ann仍是首選，買入看漲期權和目標價分別爲4.50令吉和4.16令吉。IOI Corp以其強勁的產量增長和最低的生產成本而脫穎而出，而Ta Ann則因其與CPO價格變動的相關性而著稱，這使其成爲應對長期乾燥天氣導致的CPO價格上漲的潛在交易機會。
The earnings wrap-up revealed that PPB Group underperformed due to weakness in its core business, including consumer products, film exhibition, and contributions from Wilmar International. This led to downward earnings revisions of -5.0% for FY24E, -7.3% for FY25E, and -13.6% for FY26F. The weakness was further exacerbated by a drop in fresh fruit bunch (FFB) production and oil extraction rates (OER) due to prolonged dry weather conditions affecting operations in Indonesia and Sabah.
業績總結顯示，由於消費品、電影展覽和豐益國際的出資等核心業務疲軟，PPb集團表現不佳。這導致 FY24E 的收益下調爲-5.0％，FY25E 的收益下調爲-7.3％，FY26F 的收益下調爲-13.6％。由於長期乾燥的天氣影響了印度尼西亞和沙巴州的運營，新鮮水果束（FFB）產量和石油開採率（OER）的下降進一步加劇了這種疲軟。
On a positive note, demand for oleochemicals, biodiesel, and oil and fats products rebounded, significantly boosting operational profits for the sector's downstream players. Refineries, particularly in Europe, have seen improved margins despite high utility costs. However, the Chinese market remains sluggish due to weak demand and ongoing uncertainties affecting derivative products.
從積極的方面來看，對油脂化學品、生物柴油和油脂產品的需求反彈，顯著提高了該行業下游企業的營業利潤。儘管公用事業成本很高，但煉油廠，尤其是歐洲的煉油廠的利潤率有所提高。但是，由於需求疲軟和影響衍生產品的持續不確定性，中國市場仍然疲軟。
In light of the sector's outlook, analysts have revised their CPO price forecast to RM3,800/Mt for FY24E. Integrated players like KLK and Sime Darby Guthrie are expected to benefit from this improved outlook, with increased profits forecasted for FY24E-26F. IOI Corporation continues to be favoured for its solid upstream and downstream performance, with its refinery and oleo plant operations staying competitive due to lower production costs compared to its peers operating in Europe.
鑑於該行業的前景，分析師已將其 FY24E 的CPO價格預測上調至每噸3,800令吉。預計KLK和森達比·格思裏等綜合型企業將受益於前景的改善，預計 FY24E-26F 的利潤將增加。IOI Corporation繼續因其穩健的上游和下游表現而受到青睞，與在歐洲運營的同行相比，由於生產成本較低，其煉油廠和油氣廠業務保持了競爭力。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。